Margaret River Pro - Early Forecast
Following a very average Bells forecast (which the pros managed to make entertaining), all eyes shift across to the west, with the Margaret River Pro waiting period kicking off next Thursday.
And it looks like the WSL have run into a bit of luck.
This week has been atrocious across the region thanks to a progression of high-riding cold fronts, bringing large, stormy surf to Main Break, but that's all expected to settle into next week as high pressure takes up residence across southern Australia.
At the same time, the storm track will remain active throughout the Indian Ocean, generating plenty of swells in the moderate to large size range.
Following large, pumping surf just before the waiting period begins (next Tuesday/Wednesday), Thursday looks to start of smaller but clean and in the fun 4-6ft range with an E/NE tending light N/NW breeze. This will create clean conditions early, becoming slightly wind affected but fine for the rights at Main Break.
Similar winds will create favourable conditions on Friday but the swell will be smaller and down to 3ft+. A likely lay day.
Into next weekend, a moderate to large W/SW groundswell is expected to fill in, peaking on Saturday. This will be generated by a strong, broad low forming to the south-east of South Africa this Sunday.
A fetch of W/SW gales will be projected towards Western Australia before the low weakens around the Heard Island region on Tuesday. The groundswell from this low may be seen later Friday but is due to peak on Saturday to an inconsistent 6-8ft across Main Break along with morning offshore winds. A weak front may clip the state during the day, bringing SW breezes, and then possibly lingering from the S'th on Sunday as it eases.
A strong high pressure system will then follow, swinging winds back offshore for most of the following week with moderate sized pulses of mid-period swell to follow.
We'll nut down the finer details regarding the local winds next weekend and the swells to follow into the next week with an updated forecast next week.
Comments
So many things to be excited about. I actually really want to see Toledo on a bigger, heavier board show us (and himself) what he can do.
What Bells should look like.
1st exchange was B.S. Toledo for me was 2.5 points better.
We know one thing for sure he won't do much at the box.
"Nine points ? Nine points? "
Yes Filipe that is what score you get when you actually take off and make a heavy wave.
Prima Donna.
Haha!
I'd like to see the ladies out at box with the motivation of cut placings on offer.
Why?
So box (highly unlikely) and main break. North Point not a thing anymore yeah?
Once Bells is gone Margs will stay on as the only event in Aus
Any word on Jack robbo? JJF vs Jack R/ Joao final is my pick
Would love to see Jacko Baker and Conor O up there in the finals too
I saw that he posted something on social media a few days ago saying that he’d tweaked his knee but would be competing at Margs. Hopefully he’s all good.
Thanks for the update!
Jack Robbo on FB just now:
"During my heat at Bells, I ended up injuring my meniscus (cartilage in my knee).
After reviewing with a few specialists, and discussions with my team, I’ll be pulling out of the Margaret River Pro.
As you all know, Margs is my home break, and I’m always looking forward to being in @westernaustralia. Unfortunately, I won’t be able to compete at Margs, but it’s what’s best for my recovery and long term goals.
Next week I’ll be starting physiotherapy. I’m confident I’ll be back for the next event. It’s a long year and we are just starting!
Thanks for all your support! ❤️"
Damn. Hopefully he's not out for long.
Anyone know exactly how “ dropping your lowest scoring contest “ works ?
I understand in theory, but it seems to make the cut you just need to have more points total than the people under you. ? Like robbo will drop bells result, but it doesn’t really change anything does it ? Are the rankings rejigged with only your top 4 out of the first 5 events going towards your points ?
Anyway, looking forward to it.
Jack will drop Margies 265.
Injury points.
Jeez how good would it be if the WSL stayed out of WA altogether?
I can't imagine any surfer wants the WSL anywhere near their home break.
Some places need the ct .
Keeps people interested in surfing.
J bay
Needs the ct
Teahupo
Also
Trestles
Bells. I don't think anyone there is really bothered with the comp being there.
Need a comp on the east coast.
I think it would be great if surfest. Was a ct Again.
Thats for sure Jug,
the Lennox and Gnaraloo guys made the smart choice and got together to tell them to fuck off.
Surfers Point set up since before easter already , total no local access to the carpark at Margs from 11 april till 8 may, massive floodlights on all night (power courtesy of the local ratepayers that are locked out) , Perfy company Surfing WA and its minions swanning around running the show as the "local "face scooping all the cream from state gov and local shire $$$ having elaborate vip soirees to piss in each others pockets and pat themselves on the back for running the event and planting some seedlings which die off before the contest mess has even been pulled down and to top it off all the pros bitch about what a shit wave Margs is anyhow
The one plus is the shire rangers finally kick out all the campers and clean up their shit, mow the lawn, mulch the natives and maybe even the annual clean the backpackers rice and dishes mess out of the dunny block sinks .
Fuck the wsl
just what Campbell said.
Let's be honest , pretty shit wave tho, average day is mostly over 40 year olds out there.few hundred metres across the bay is a different story
hey, I'm over 40!
I have been hoping that somebody will analyze and post the specific agreements that WSL has with the cities/government at their contest sites. I did a cursory google search when trestles was put back as a tour venue, and found nothing, but I’m sure the information would have to be available if I spent more time looking.
From recollection the local shire (AMR) put in $20k for this event, the State Govt ~$5.5M (not sure if that is for this one event, or for all the events in the term which expires next year). Surfing WA sanctioned up to this year's event.
@jamyardy thanks!
You know, it's a steep price to pay to go through all that, but you do kick out the #vanlyfe and clean up afterward for a month - I reckon it's almost worth it. Almost.
"mulch the natives" how is the woodchip treating the follicles on your noggin?
Better overhead waves and offshore conditions to give Ke12y Slater (USA) a better change to start his comeback and storm his way to the front of the pack and claim his 12th WORLD TITLE.
Remember, you read it here first.
Caaarn Ke12y!!!!
JSC - are you a flat earther aswell ?
What direction etc does the BOX need to be viable for the WOZ
Mid period west swell, high tides.
NE wind ideal.
Too fickle to be a comp venue imo but we might see a few heats out there this year.
agreed, if only for a couple of heats what's the point?
Depends who’s heats coming up.
If it’s toledos they’ll move to the farm instead of the box to justify his world title.
Actually that was a shit comment of mine.
I’d really like to see filopeedo charge box cos I know he’s got the skill set.
Carn fiilll
Head down
Charge it mate.
Nicely said mate. I agree, he has it there too I reckon.
He's had the skill set for over a decade.
That is not the problem here.
On the subject of the box. Although great entertainment, I don’t feel it’s worth the hassle. To have half a dozen heats run in completely opposite kind of surf feels like a really uneven playing field.
I’d rather them be able to be mobile to N. point should an epic swell turn up. With that being said it’s a fragile environment and if I lived at Gracetown my opinion would have been the same as Lennox when the Woz came a knocking
The tours suffering with shitty waves imo. Any option to get the guys off the face and under the lid should be grabbed with both hands.
Heart muscle.
@ Freeride76
As Kong would say,
"He's a soft _ _ _ _."
Jack has just posted on his FB that he's pulling out of Margs event.
Bugger.
If he has a torn meniscus he'll be very, very lucky to be ready for surf ranch.
That suckssssssss
More than likely need keyhole surgery.
4-6 weeks minimum.
I had a bucket handle tear of my meniscus and had surgery to remove the torn piece of cartilage, was good to go straight after surgery. I think if they try to repair the tear with stitches recovery may take longer.
Yes it really depends how he chooses to manage it. The scientific evidence on meniscal tear management is somewhat grey rather than black and white. He may want to elect for surgical repair which if it takes could result in a good outcome but if it fails quite poor outcome. This will take some times to recover as you said Joshy. Thinking at least 8 weeks maybe more towards 12 weeks. If he gets a part of the meniscus removed it could be far quicker but may risk more arthritis down the track. He could also elect for non-surgical management which can take time too. Tough for him
Damn tough timing for him. It’s 9 weeks from injury to start of El Salvador, which is still kinda cutting it fine maybe. Two 33rds at Margs/tub + 17th at Bells.
Get well soon Robbo, still doable, but not easy!
Yes, depends on type of meniscus tear. I’ve been dealing with partial horizontal meniscus tear for over two years. Long story but due to my previous two knee surgeries on the same knee, orthopedic surgeon has opted to go without surgery. Nba players typically have a 40 day turnaround after meniscus surgery, but Lonzo Ball has been out over 14 months since meniscus surgery, with no sign of return until next august.
I was hoping with the high storm track we might get a bit of WSW and see a few lefts ridden. Still proper SW so should be awesome viewing.
Finals day on Anzac Day looks likely!
I miss the hype and viewing of the Snapper leg. I dont think they should be able to surf past the buoy though, should kick out and leave the next km for those that work all week long and want to get a wave.
I want it to run at the box. Purely so we can watch Toledos balls shrivel up inside him.
Or....he grows them!
stranger things have happened.
So funny story from Saturday surfing wind effect solid Injidup car park. Two older (maybe locals) and myself sitting out there when the two guys start growling about the crowds, fuck the brazos they are all soft. "Look at them taking pics on the beach....that will be straight on the gram". Then i hear its "fuckin Italo" you should send him John! (cant actually remember his name) "yeah fuck him"
They say nothing........ Italo ripps the bag out of two waves and finds himself next to one of the guys and says hi to him....the guy gets SO excited that Italo has spoken to him he goes into a 10 min manic rave on the best wind and tides for Injidup carpark and the point!!! Sharing all his nice local surf knowledge....
I thought to myself what a Wanker.....or maybe I thought that's nice of him too share. You decide.
classic.
Hahaha.
What a ripper ..
Times have changed..... In 1990 Tom Curren rode a wave at Margarets left into the rivermouth.
Didnt know he'd won the comp until he walked back to the beach comp area.
His rides start at about 36m
I remember back in the day seeing tony hardy getting slotted on a huge hollow left out there, looked like cloudbreak, image is permanently etched into my brain, the left can produce the goods rarely
I think I've seen 2 barrels in ten years of Margies.
Both were rights.
I don't think many pros even look left when surfing there.
Looks like their going to finish it on the bricks.
The only reason Margies is on tour is cause of government funding........
WA held two events (including Rotto) during the Covid year which saved the WSL's hide, so a bit of goodwill is probably justified. When there's a wavepool event and finals at Trestles there's far worse events to be worried about.
I'd prefer if they surfed the left honestly.
I think the judges punish them though.
Yeah there are worse events on tour.
I think I made three waves of the Brazil contest last year....
I usually watch most of Margies.
Its entertaining.
I see why they hold it there. It holds any size .
it's pretty rare for the left to really wall up, it's usually just a fat corner.
I guess Margs is easy access for the woz, most the other spots in the region don't have the facilities to support the circus tents and spectators
The Wizzle's newly created executive position Chief of Poop ruled against venues without suitable toileting facilities after an executive lost his phone deep in a drop toilet.
haha that's a bit shit innit
The drop toilet thing makes scents.
Who hasn't lost a phone down one right?
Drop toilets are unexplored ground for metal detectorists....
jacob wilcox got a left barrel out there when he wildcarded against red hot JJF 6 years back
Correction: Barton Lynch won the above Margaret River 1990 comp.
Many barrels, wipeouts & broken boards.... everyone that made the waves enjoyed the rides.
10ft and offshore today.
Spot the little surfers taking on the lefts..
I imagine the pro's would be filling their boots. Love to see what a few of the region's gems look like today.
It seems like the woz is a week behind the swell schedule
So far this season ?
Slow down huey , your sending it too early.
One of those brave little surfers out there lives at my house. Few crystal cones spitting surfers out at the box this morning too.
Been an epic two days.
Steph Gilmore is an absolute legend.
Further notes from the road.
Reckon Fils out there?
The left at Main Break may be "fat" vs. the right; and considered a "burger" by global "modern wave" standards; however multiple people (kids & adults) have died on the Surgeon's Table (inside left) - even a 4-6ft swell out there can kick your arse, and hold you down, in my experience.
(Disclaimer - I'm old; I've never ridden The Box and I'm never likely to,)
Just seen a grab of Caity Simmers absolutely sending a bomb out The Box today, the new guard is well and truly here!
Swell's barely taken a breath and dropped below 3metres for the last week.
Definitely an active ocean out there at the moment.
Here you go
Watch this and you won’t need to watch any heats at the point.
Same wave
Same turns
Every wave
Just like every heat
Yawn
Is Italo wearing a helmet?
IMO
JJF laying into big main break is the pinnacle of modern pro surfing.
If pro surfing was about heavy water barrels then there’d be plenty of guys that are miles from a comp jersey that could put their hand up.
I reckon if you asked any pro what they wish they could do, the answer would be “turns like John at 8ft margs”
Excited with the forecast!
Some of that pre event surf action is good. If the swell sticks around it will be a great event.
Name one surfer in that video that wouldn't have looked better on a bigger board.
100% agree.
Rail length looks so much better in solid surf.
Not in fashion though.
Totally agree IB…maybe Liam O’B and Barron looked to have the cleanest rail lines…
Yeah there are some chattery bottom turns in there
Agree. But for arguments sake I thought only Italo and Medina looked ok on the shorter board. Ethan looked really nice as well.
Throw back to one of the greatest tragedies of the modern era. Jordy’a barrel dodge.
Ps - I love this Comp and the big turns and can’t wait. Let’s just be happy we will be able to see some big turns in big waves finally.
I also enjoy this comp, just with the crew taking on some juicer, shifty surf and trying to nail that end section jam. A good time slot for viewing into the afternoon as well.
This comp and JBay are the best viewing times!!
John John clear winner in the freesurf. Medina looking hungry too. Reigniting my favourite rivalry, bring it on.
C.O'L put down some high scoring rides too.
I also wish it was 20 foot and Jadson was in it so we could watch him take top to bottom wipeouts on the sets or go craY diving at the box
Yep, love a charging Jaddy!
Also, o dawg wearing those 20ft sets on the head and having to dive off his board!
For the record, the 'official' forecast for Margs from Surfline (just issued) has:
Thurs: Head high plus
Fri: Head high plus early, building to several feet overhead by the afternoon
Sat: Peak in swell double overhead
Box still pumping, bring KP back for the call!
The Box gets really boring, really quick. Drop, barrel and then no turn..
Couldn't disagree more.
yep, 100% agree, Craig.
Good for an arvo viewing with a few heavy hardcore wipeouts thrown in...after that it gets a bit repetitive.
Nathan's next 'slab tour' video should be good, Island, Pikers, Box...
Margs get real boring real quick.
Two turns and a close out
Everyone doing the same 2 turns just like last year etc.
There we go! Crazy, wouldn't have seen this a few years back!
She's special. Reckon she'll smash everyone in two years or so - possibly except for Pickles.
That’s awesome.
I love Steph G but you can’t imagine her doing that in a million years
That's so good!
Now that’s better than bog rail margs ha ha
It is, but then after trying to split hairs over barrels and scores for an hour watching the same thing, super repetitive.
Can we have both?
A day at pumping Box and the rest Mainbreak?
Yeah best result!
I'm keen to see Caity and Pickles at the Box.
I reckon Pickles will send it too.
Lest we forget, the ever smiling Queen of aloha, Malia Manuel threading a few at the Box a couple of years ago.
Those ones Caity are on are bombs!
What chance they run tomorrow??
I reckon high.
They better scale John against the field rather than against himself.
Baron Mamiya looked pretty good on the rail too from the quick edit I saw.
Yeh, I thought that too.
Lots have upped their game since 2016? When JJF was in a complete league of his own.
Chianca, mamiya, Liam O’Brien, Jordy, Ewing Matty mcG and some others for the naturals.
O’Leary, young, Rcal and Yago I like for the goofies
Any guess on whether it will start tomorrow?
This is possibly a dumb question, but what the heck I'll ask anyway.
I have never understood why Perth is generally regarded as having mediocre surf while the stretch between the capes gets cranking swells from the SW, even though both areas seem to me to have a similar westerly aspect and the systems producing these swells seem sufficiently far enough away to make the 200-300km difference between the two areas (I would have thought) somewhat immaterial. Yet its chalk and cheese. For the longest part I thought maybe Rotto was spoiling the party for Perth but when you zoom out on a map it really isn't that big an obstacle.
Is it all just offshore bathymetry?
Yep, all hidden below the surface. Check out the shallow water extending from Rotto to the south-east. The fringing reefs get so shallow there, that they break on bigger swells.
ahh I see.
Cheers Craig. Legend.
I really don’t know how Perth surfers do it. Place makes the Sunny Coast seem consistent
Probably same as Adelaide surfers Solitude - we just get in the car and drive
Go sailing in summer
Grim!
Try living in Brisbane Sol. It’s all relative mate
So it has a similar effect to the barrier reef in qld does it?
Hope JJF's knee can handle the collisions on that end section.
If the judges reward those first two turns appropriately there’s no need for him to Hail Mary the end section.
I think he will be "forced" to hit that end section, but you might be right.
I'm really curious to find out.
Not sure if you recall but one of his past knee injuries occured right there.
I think it was knee injury number 2.(?)
Hardly worth it you'd think.
Just look at the gluggy mushy little end section that stuffed jacks knee at bells.
They get extra points the closer they come to an ambulance on the margs end section .
We’ve all done it where “that one time” it’s just lime stone.
Twice I’ve wrapped guys heads with a towel till we could get them to care.
Mind you these pro guys av got way more skill than you or me.
Or just me.
Lol
Ambo was heading to town from the point mid morning today flashing. Heard box was ridiculously crowded today, and with big open barrels
wonder if the solar eclipse tomorrow is gonna affect the comp, could be interesting
luv this event when it’s big and offshore - it’s as pure ocean beauty and energy that you are ever likely to see.
(only been there once myself and it was 2ft onshore - and a freakin long paddle!!)
https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/in/@2066981
75% solar eclipse at Margs 11:17am. Will be amazing.
Vickers
Your right
I can’t post wat I just wrote
I’d be shot
There are waves here
It’s like Hawaii
You gotta be ready
The guys here are
You won’t be alone
Not me of course
I’m just an old kook
But wa crew are solid.
Should be on but maybe dodging 60foot plus bombs...
The buoy down South has been reading 19.10metres for the last 3 days. :-P
https://www.transport.wa.gov.au/imarine/albany-wave-data.asp
Its went adrift Tue lunchtime
whoever did that vid needs to learn how to spell the competitors names properly......
New swell starting to show..
Nice set to review on the replay (7:01am local time). Easy 8ft+.
Rather large.
Will they, won't they?
BOM forecast for the Leeuwin Coast today - issued half an hour ago - has a Strong Wind Warning: "Westerly 15 to 25 knots, reaching up to 30 knots offshore in the evening".
Current obs are under 10kts E/NE.
Most of the high res models have variable winds until late morning then a swing to the west but without any major strength. They suggest the breeze will kick in properly this evening and overnight.
Will be very interesting to see what plays out. Latest model guidance has taken a turn for the worse: Monday thru' Thursday look to be a write-off under strong winds from the W/SW thru S. Friday has light winds but I'd be cautious with expectations following four days of onshores.
I think they'll (have to) run this morning. Decent winds for a good part of the day by the looks (I have zero local knowledge), then 4 days of carnage.
Would they finish it today?
I think they've got 26 heats all up so they'd struggle to get them all done, even with overlapping heats ? I haven't done the maths but it'd be a huge day and depends on when this wind forecast to hit turns up too I guess ??
Thanks seal
Still looks 6-8ft to me!
SW winds gusting 39kts at Cape Nat and 41kts at Cape Leeuwin. Safe to safe we'll be off for the day.
Friday still remains the next viable day.
Looks like potential for last day of waiting period, Sunday? Similar to the good big clean day they had the other day?
Surely they'll move to The Box now that the cut doesn't come into the equation if the swell and conditions align again.
Absolutely no reason not to now.