The Latest Hawaiian Forecast

Stu Nettle picture
Stu Nettle (stunet)
Swellnet Dispatch

The attention of the whole surfing world is currently cast toward Hawaii as a large low pressure system bears down on the island chain. Recent forecasts estimate the ensuing swell will be the largest of the Hawaiian season thus far and that there is a very good chance that the Quiksilver In Memory of Eddie Aikau competition will run at Waimea Bay this Thursday (Friday, Australian time).

On Tuesday, Tom Carroll and Ross Clarke-Jones, who are both competing in the Eddie Aikau competition, flew over to the North Shore. They were joined by Ben Matson of Swellnet. The three of them are the stars of the Storm Surfers documentary series and may use footage from this swell in the next installment.

Thrust in the middle of the storm, so to speak, Ben has put on his forecasting hat and given his opinion on the approaching swell:

"The enormous low pressure system generating our impending Eddie swell has now fully developed, and is somewhat stationary in the North Pacific. In fact, we're expecting this broad-scale pattern to remain in place for the next couple of days, which will ensure extra-large surf persists all the way from this afternoon (Wednesday Hawaiian) through about the middle of next week.

"The leading edge of the new swell (21 seconds) arrived at the 51001 buoy just a few hours ago, some 470km W/NW of the North Shore or around eight to ten hours travel time. Whilst we'll probably see a rapid increase in size later today, the bulk of the swell is not expected to fill in until overnight, probably reaching a peak close to dawn. Crucially, this will occur around the Spring high tide (3:30am), which means there's a risk for minor coastal inundation.

"As for the size of the swell - whilst unlikely to be the biggest event ever to be seen on the North Shore, this swell definitely looks to have strong Eddie potential. Thursday morning's peak at Waimea Bay should hold somewhere between 20-25ft Hawaiian, before tapering off a little into the afternoon. One crucial factor that the Eddie hinges on is the swell's consistency, which I'm confident won't be too much of a problem given the significant width, length and duration of the responsible Northwestern Pacific fetch. Conditions are looking great too. Winds have been light for the last couple of days and we're expecting trades of around 10kts for much of the short term forecast period.

"Beyond Thursday's peak, wave heights should remain very large throughout Friday and Saturday - which means there'll be ample opportunities to look further afield for more big waves."

While Ben is in Hawaii we will endeavour to keep Swellnet readers up to date with the latest forecasts, and, if the competition runs, photos from the Eddie Aikau. The Storm Surfers team also have their sights set on another big wave in Hawaii which they hope to surf. If all goes to plan we will have footage from that session on Swellnet.

----

STOP PRESS: The National Weather Service just issued this emergency advisory warning due to the large swell and abnormally high tide.

A HIGH SURF WARNING INDICATES THAT DANGEROUS...BATTERING WAVES WILL POUND THE SHORELINE. THIS WILL RESULT IN VERY DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS...AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY...AS THIS LARGE SWELL WILL COINCIDE WITH VERY HIGH TIDES...WHICH WILL OCCUR IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

Comments

donweather's picture
donweather's picture
donweather Thursday, 20 Jan 2011 at 3:11am

Hmmmm, this storm doesn't appear to have blown up as much compared with the earlier forecasts this week. Forecast open ocean swell heights are considerably down from what they were earlier in the week.

North shore only expecting 12-13ft@17-18 seconds now.

Reckon the Eddie will run in those swells Ben?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 20 Jan 2011 at 4:01am

Don, the data that I'm looking at suggests a large swell.

I'm looking at the 51001 buoy and its showing a peak of 6.1m @ 17-18seconds overnight Wednesday Hawaii time, holding into the early hours of Thursday, and then slowly easing during the day.

The swell then looks to still hold around 5m @ 15-16 seconds into Friday morning Hawaii time before then easing slowly into the weekend and early next week.

tbp's picture
tbp's picture
tbp Thursday, 20 Jan 2011 at 4:08am

STOP IT - YOUR KILLING ME!!!

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Thursday, 20 Jan 2011 at 7:44am

The 51101 buoy has already reached a preliminary peak of 20ft at 19 seconds. It's temporarily backed off but should rise again to similar levels for much of the next 12 hours. I just checked Waimea a few minutes ago (in the dark) and there's a few sets pushing close to 12-15ft. Can't wait to see what unfolds tomorrow!

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Thursday, 20 Jan 2011 at 9:17am

Latest buoy reading is 18.4 feet at 17 secs. Keep coming, keeeeep coming.

stunet's picture
stunet's picture
stunet Thursday, 20 Jan 2011 at 10:15am

Size is down, period is up: 15.7 feet at 19 secs