Modelling shows the impact of an oil spill in the Great Australian Bight
BP's planned oil drilling in the Great Australian Bight has taken a controversial turn with the release of oil spill modelling. The modelling, conducted by ocean scientist Laurent Lebreton and commissioned by the Wilderness Society, examined the effects of 'low-flow' and 'high-flow' spills and how the oil would spread under various seasonal patterns.
In every scenario South Australia's Eyre Peninsula is right in the firing line.
The modelling in a 'low-flow' oil spill – considered 5,000 barrels a day gushing into the ocean – showed oil would flow to the West and South Australian coastlines, and even onward to Victoria.
Lebreton's worse case scenario was 50,000 barrels of oil a day which would have oil stretching from Western Australia then east covering the whole of Australia's southern coastline. 50,000 barrels a day is less than BP’s Gulf of Mexico oil spill in 2010.
“We don’t need a Gulf of Mexico disaster in the Great Australian Bight,” the Wilderness Society’s Peter Owen said. “A Gulf-scale spill could destroy marine environments in the Bight and oil contamination could even reach as far as New Zealand, with a 10 per cent chance of hitting the South Island within six months.”
Another consideration for BP is that conditions in the Great Australian Bight are often far more rugged than they were in the Gulf of Mexico. “Bight waves are 4-6 six times bigger than the waves in the Gulf of Mexico around the time of BP’s disaster," said Owen. "The Bight is also far more windy.”
Beyond the treacherous conditions, deep sea drilling in The Bight has additional challenges; the drill head is operating over two kilometres underwater and then drilling three kilometres into the seabed.
BP has not released its own spill modelling but said it would be able to plug any leak within 35 days, although the Guardian newspaper has revealed this depends upon shipping and installing capping equipment from Singapore, 4,800km away, and a containment system from Houston, more than 14,000km away.
BP's Gulf of Mexico spill lasted 87 days and the 2009 Montara oil spill off Western Australia lasted 74 days.
Drilling is due to begin late next year.
Comments
If we all stopped driving our cars to the beach, flying overseas or buying surfboards we wouldn't need a petroleum industry.
What if there are other energy sources beside petroleum?
I am not quite sure what you are getting at but to answer your question, there obviously are - solar, wind, hydro etc. (which I think you are alluding too unless you have personally developed some new technology which you haven't released yet).
However, why is it that these renewables are currently not being widely used in industry or domestically? Because of basic economics. Hydrocarbons are cheaper and will continue to be for the foreseeable future.
I would personally love to see renewable become dominant, however I think the concept trotted out by the permanent protest parties that we can shift to them now is unrealistic.
Not unrealistic one bit....
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-10-06/solar-wind-reach-a-big...
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2015/10/5/renewable-energy/e...
and most importantly, we aren't currently costing the price of FF's correctly, that is to include their social and environmental impacts which we all know are reshaping the planet and costing us dearly. the argument that FF's are cheaper no longer applies even without these externalities factored in which I think points to how far renewables have come.
I guess what I mean is unrealistic in the short term (next 10 years). I think we will see gas as a transition fuel as we move away from coal.
Interestingly, in Germany, ban on fraccing has meant that they continue to burn a higher amount of dirty coal perversely increasing their carbon output.
The numbers should and will ultimately speak for themselves. Business by definition will always take the most cost effective path so if what you say is true we should start seeing an exponential shift away from FF. I just don't think that is going to happen too soon.
I couldn't access the second article unfortunately.
It's also worth noting that solar isn't exactly great for the environment either: http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2014/11/141111-solar-pane...
Should we bury your head in the sand on issues that matter to the surfing community, to future generations who would also like to enjoy waves in the Southern Ocean, to fish and gather and live? No doubt we're a part of the problem relying on the fossil fuel industry in many ways, although anyone with a brain would prefer not to. It comes down to our government policies and our own choices that can and do influence those policies. Current government policies are subsidising a backward industry, corporate greed and destruction of the places and lifestyles many of us hold dear while they cut the legs from the development of renewable sources, of which there are many.
Talk is cheap. Buy a horse. Don't wear a wetsuit. Use string for your leggy. Ride a log.
Until consumers stop consuming ain't fuck all gunnar stop drilling . You love your western capitalist consumer existence . If you didn't you wouldn't be on this technology afforded to you by blood.
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And they wouldn't be dropping bombs in the Middle East! Greedy C--ts!!!!
I think that modelling is conservative..If it leaks for 21days surely it would reach NZ or head up the east coast..
What the fuck can we do? It needs an interstate bipartisanship because not only will it affect SA but Vic and Tas.
Where are all the Labor suporters on swellnet not giving it to Wetherill?
The State Government has no power over the waters off the Southern Ocean as it's under federal control barley. So South Australian Premier Jay Weatherall is powerless to stop BP from drilling.
You could contact your local Federal M.P Rowan Ramsey(Coalition) who's electorate runs the length of the Eyre Peninsula coastline to see what his position is on oil rigs in the Bight?
I'm serious.
I think his phone would be running red hot with calls from concerned Port Lincoln fishermen and the like?
You being a farmer and all barley he might actually give you the time of day?
So you wiping wetherills hands off it ys? After all his pompous chest beating over holden & the subs havent heard fuck all from him on this shizz?
I will just do that..write/ring ramsey..i dont know him but knew his predecessor barry wakelin..they were both small fry puppets a little bit in the most safe coalition seat in Aus?
New Federal Environmental laws were brought in last year that mean BP does not have to disclose modelling data of drilling activities in the Great Australian Bight for independent assessment.
In March 2014 the National Offshore Petroleum Safety and Environmental Management Authority became the sole regulator of environmental approvals for offshore petroleum activities in commonwealth waters, taking over from the previous approval process that allowed for public submissions.
Under the new laws, only a summary of a company’s submitted environment plan is released.
So this is an area completely out of State Government control barley but I get the feeling considering the state of the South Australian economy Jay Weatherill would not want to touch this issue with a 10 foot pole.
If he opposes the project he is anti-jobs, if he supports it he upsets the fishing and tourism industries. A classic wedge issue?
I think if he jumps onboard the environmental side he'd be seen by nearly all of SA as favourable and 'doing the right thing'.
Alot of these workers i'd imagine would be fifo?
Fucking amazing these cunts would want to do it at this time with the expense and low income opportunities?
But dont give a fuck which side its coming from its still a fucked idea..almost makes ya think if its a pipe dream? But never trust those mining muthafukkas
So it's OK to have Santos and others drilling north of Adelaide but no one can drill south?
A drill ship with a day rate of around a mill ain't turning up while oil is fiddy a bazzer.
Does that independent State MP Geoff Brock's electorate cover where your farm is barley? If it does you should try and call or email him about this as well? His seat runs along the Spencer Gulf too so he has some skin in the game?
As he is not really aligned to either side of politics he could be a voice of reason and stir things up on this issue? It really is a much bigger issue than petty party politics?
Yeah i agree but geoff brocks a stooge..its worth a crack though..i dont think he will be in politics next election..he sealed his fate over the marine parks.
Not one drop! We are the people of the ocean and we must stand against placing them at risk. Even if the fossil fool companies/political lobbiests don't have any form of disastrous spill, eventually there will be when those caps corrode. Steel rusts and concrete cracks. If not now, then when will the results of the greedy dash for cash in this fossil fool dinosaur industry become an uncontrollable mess? We need to draw a line in the sand. We need to stand up to protect the oceans we love and depend on for oxygen, food and our own pleasure. Scenarios like the Gulf of Mexico aren't over when the news ends, when we move on to other things. The damage to the natural ecosystems is violent and ongoing. In order to end the risks to our marine environments, we need to unite and take a stand against this. What sort of world do you want to live in?
Craig can be very beneficial here with Rasta links..Paul Watson..old mate Zeph if his head is screwed on..the east coast pro's hitting the west you need the big guns to make the noise as well as us shtkickers
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a few steps people can take to petition or who to email on the wilderness society website and video if links like this are allowed.
The irony is that the bight region itself is a hotbed for renewable promise .
Some of the highest sunshine rates and low ambients in Aust . Relentless wind , and if the two of them go missing at any point you can bet your bottom dollar there would be a long period powerful groundswell running ready to run wave power generators .
Well said Southey,
I hear Ya.
Good point Southey. Wish I thought of that before posting the above article.
A wave energy unit was sunk of the Fleurieu Peninsula! Under tow to its destination! Long way too go I think! The Southern Ocean would rip apart any such technologies! Keep trying though!
Check out this image of maximum wave heights from the Cape du Couedic wave buoy off Kangaroo Island during a one week period in May this year.
An average maximum height of 8-10 metres with a peak of 18 metres!
Compare that with these images of BP's oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico with emergency boats parked around in perfect calm waters struggling to contain the fire and spill?
Good luck trying to contain any such accident in the most treacherous waters in the world?
No doubt they wouldve got some tips from all the oil and gas rigs that have been operating in the bass straight for over 40 years
The fucked thing is! They'll eventually get the go ahead to do it! Why? Cause they have the cash! Cunts are easily bought!
no amount of protesting is going to stop this from going ahead. There's too much money to be made.
If you saw models of waste water outfalls along the coast around major cities as this model is represented you would never go in the ocean!
The modelling results in this article are only showing percentages, which doesn't mean much in reality. If it actually showed what trajectories hit shorelines at a concentration that would impact the environment the model would look completely different. You would only be focussing your efforts on a small area. These areas would have been involved in stakeholder and community consultation for a long time already.
At least the bight has crap weather that would break a spill up in no time. If you're really concerned you would look at NW WA. Multiple rigs sitting smack bang on top of Ningaloo reef and some of the best stretch of WA coast. A spill along the Ningaloo coast is going to have a much larger impact on the environment than any spill in the bight.
Spot on snapperhunter.
Altho, the rigs are about 20-24kms from the Ningaloo reef not smack bang on top;)
IMO there are a few that will be shutting down soon from too much H2S in the fields, very damaging substance to the equipment, flow lines etc etc.
Many a surfee here on this site, probably don't realise how many oil/gas production facilities or drill rigs are situated around the Australian coastline.
Hey Stu good article but maybe just maybe you could research the Bass Strait, the NW shelf as well as the Timor Sea;)
Many a rig around this coastline.
I think the biggest difference between the proposed Bight rigs and the ones off the N.W coast and Bass Strait are the presence of the two shallow water gulfs, St Vincent and Spencer that lay in the direct swell and wind path of where BP plan to drill.
Once oil enters these gulfs there is zero chance of any dispersion or breakdown of the sludge by ocean currents or volume of water due to the shallow depths. This map shows the problem.
Thats what the flinders uni map didnt show. Once its in the gulf, ohho!
I think you could stop it..if the public kick up enough of a stench you can stop anything..mainly because politicians only care about themselves.yoh threaten their income/stature/profession/junket they can backfilp quite quickly.
But you have to get on the front foot early
someone rattled the greeny tree and they're all falling out - before you attack, I LOVE THE IDEA OF RAINBOWS AND GREEN but put a realistic head on guys
- do you know how many rigs are around the world and how many spills there are? (very similar to the shark attacks versus people going into the ocean each day - sensationalism sells papers)
- yeah, ban rigs and see how your life unfolds - no oil = no life - there is nothing (eg.renewables) that can replace the hydrocarbon for energy density (certainly nothing that will get a 747 off the ground)
- ok to have these theories to make a wonderful world but there is no economic or practical substitute yet - if there was, we'd take it - do 5 mins research on a world without oil and see the things you take for granted that you'd be giving up - hands up who's taken a flight to Indo or driven to the beach
- the chaos that would ensue from crimping hydrocarbon production (until we have an alternative) would make the one in a million oil spill seem like nothing
- Shell just dropped $7 bil after poor results in the Arctic - the low hanging fruit has gone from the oil tree, so what's the answer? Shell rolled the dice (going from wildcat to commercial success with drilling is way less than a 10% chance) - if there was something viable out there, they'd throw $50 bil at it, rather than playing the drilling casino
I have no barrow to push here, just years studying O and G - just annoyed that this topic always gets the emotive response not the practical one – replacing the hydrocarbon will be the equal of curing cancer – for my grandkids sake, I will cheer as much as the next person
Some good points above. I don't think many people wouldn't support a move away from hydrocarbons but the reality is it won't happen any time soon.
Wilderness Society and co are incentivised to create hysteria.
What about the fact that Chevron has been fraccing on Barrow Island in WA since the 1950's and Barrow Island is a class A nature reserve! If you believed the greenies it should be a desolate waste land by now!!!!!
adding to the above, it is not just BP that want to drill in the Bight. There are a number of other major o&g companies lining up ready to seek approval as soon as the BP gets the first approval through.
I work for the company drilling these wells. I certainly don't agree with a lot of things the oil and gas industry does and especially offshore drilling. As much as I know is that the initial contract for 3 wildcat (exploration) wells has since been reduced to 2 wells due to a massive industry downturn. A wildcat well is not a producing well and the likely hood of a spill is extremely rare and will only happen if they actually find hydro carbons which is definitely not a given. These wells will be drilled, plugged and abandoned for a later date. The most likely impacts resulting from the drilling is spills into the ocean eg drilling mud, fuels and lubricant oils. Infrastructure required to support offshore drilling and production is massive and currently non existent in this part of the world. BP's contract was written, planned and signed in an absolute boom time. They are desperate to take the Ocean Great White and have it drilling elsewhere in the world in the known oil fields. Don't expect much to come of this drilling program. We are a long way off producing and supplying offshore oil and gas in south Australia but it is only a matter of time.
The Wilderness Society (yeah, I know, a bunch of lefty commo dreadlocked hippy dropouts) are asking people to email NOPSEMA to ask them to reject the BP proposal.
The page is:
http://wilderness.org.au/articles/say-nope-nopsema?utm_source=phplist&ut...
If you're concerned about the effects an oil spill would have on the environment, especially if your favourite spots will be directly affected, and that means all surfers in SA, Vic and Tassie), then I urge you to email NOPSEMA to show your concern.
I know we are dependent on oil, but we need to be weaning ourselves off this dependence, not encouraging it. And the only realistic way to do that is to make oil more expensive so that other alternatives become more feasible. Yes, it will mean pain, but better a bit now than a lot in the future.
I want my children and grandchildren to thank me for doing my bit to prevent the catastrophe looming for the planet - I don't want them to curse me and our generation for leaving them with a ruined planet.
BP test wells knocked back for the time being.......they need to modify and resubmit there Enviro plan by mid July.
Decision this Monday - ABC news online
This is amazing news!!
BP withdraws from Great Australian Bight drilling
Awesome news.
"Norwegian oil and gas company, Statoil, has revealed plans to explore the Great Australian Bight off South Australia after taking over two of BP's exploration permits.
The companies have signed a swap deal covering four offshore petroleum titles.
Under the deal, Statoil has transferred its 30 per cent equity interest in two of its permits to BP and exited the licences.
BP has given its 70 per cent equity interest in two other permits to Statoil and exited those licences.
The National Offshore Petroleum Titles Administrator granted approval for Statoil to takeover the two permits it has 100 per cent equity interest in.
Statoil will need to submit environmental proposals which must be approved by NOPSEMA before any drilling can commence.
Statoil's vice president of exploration in Australasia, Pal Haremo, said the transaction strengthened the company's position in an "unproven basin with a large exploration upside".
"We have a good understanding of the geology in our licence area, based on high-quality 3D data analysis," he said.
"We believe there could be an active petroleum system within our permit area and we are now positioned to test this potential under favourable market conditions for exploration drilling.
The company's Australian manager Jacques-Etienne Michel said the business would take "the necessary time to systematically work through all the preparations needed to drill safely".
"While we are building on the previous work done in these licences, our operational plans will have to be redeveloped," he said.
"In the end, it will be up to the Australian regulatory authorities to grant the necessary approvals for the activity to go ahead."
Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association (APPEA) SA director Matthew Doman said Statoil had a good track record and the news was a vote of confidence in the Great Australian Bight's potential as an oil producing region.
Wilderness Society's SA director Peter Owen said oil and gas exploration should never have been allowed in the region and called for the State Government to refuse to grant the change to lease conditions and work program requirements.
Green Senator Sarah Hanson-Young wants Statoil’s plans quashed.
"This is an opportunity to make sure we put to bed the idea of oil drilling in the Great Australian Bight," she said.
"It's too dangerous, it's too risky, and it's going to end up being a disaster for South Australia's economy rather than a boom.
"If an oil spill occurred it would devastate the South Australian coast, our fishing industry, our tourism industry.. it would put oil slick across Kangaroo Island."
http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-09/great-australian-bight-drilling...
Norwegian company Statoil one of the most reckless and short sighted oil explorers in the world still has eyes on the bight.
Statoils proposed wells are in the same location as the ones BP walked away from last year , meaning the threat of disastrous spill that could reach as far as NSW, Tasmania and Kangaroo Island is still too real .
And it's not just statoil. Australian companies karoon gas and bight petroleum are also planning seismic blasting in early 2018.
http://uk.whales.org/issues/oil-pollution
Industrial accidents that pollute the seas and oceans with oil are woefully increasingly common. Until recently, most scientists believed that oil spills posed the greatest risk to seabirds and furred marine mammals such as sea otters, polar bears and seal pups. If these creatures have their fur or feathers fouled with oil, they face many problems, not least that their fur or feathers can no longer keep them warm. Whilst whales and dolphins get their insulation from their blubber which cannot be fouled with oil, nonetheless they may be impacted by oil spills by eating prey that has become contaminated, by breathing in fumes or by directly swimming through oil.
Whales and dolphins may ingest or breath in toxic compounds
Prey may also be impacted
Ongoing research to understand the impacts of spills (such as the Gulf of Mexico spill) is important in understanding this threat.
It is increasingly clear to scientists that other marine mammals, such as dolphins that live in the upper layers of the seas, are also to some extent vulnerable to oil pollution, including floating oil slicks.
Firstly, oil spills can also kill off smaller animals (such as shrimp-like creatures called krill) that are eaten by whales and the fish that dolphins eat.
Secondly, scientists have observed that dolphins at sea do not necessarily avoid floating oil slicks, sometimes actually swimming into them. Once dolphins are surrounded by an oil slick, there is a risk that the toxic oil will enter their blowholes and mouths and, perhaps more importantly, that they will inhale the volatile toxic chemicals that evaporate from the surface of the oil.
Few scientific studies have been made of how the chemicals from oil spills affect the bodies of wild dolphins and whales. However, two orca populations have not recovered from the Exxon Valdex oil spill in Prince William Sound, Alaska, in 1989. In the year and a half after the Exxon Valdez spill, both groups of killer whales swimming through Prince William Sound at the time experienced an unprecedented high number of deaths. The pod of resident killer whales lost 33% and the pod of transients 41% of their populations. One pod of resident killer whales still hasn't reached its pre-spill numbers.
Ongoing studies are looking at the effects of the huge 2011 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, and the findings from these studies are expected to greatly improve our understanding of the potential effects of spilt oil on whales and dolphins. Early signs are not good for the Louisiana bottlenose dolphin population, who are showing signs of severe ill health.
Whales and dolphins live in a world of water and sound. They feed, communicate and find their way around their world using sound. If you pump oil or chemicals into that world, or high levels of unnatural noise, then they will suffer. Chemical spills, seismic noise used to find oil and gas, conducting loud military exercises at sea and increases in boat traffic can all put whales and dolphins in danger, cause them to strand on coastlines, and even kill them. Amazingly, there are currently no accepted international standards regarding noise pollution in our seas. We don’t know what damage all these activities are doing to whales and dolphins so we have to act now to find out before it is too late.
Oil and chemical spills, sewage and other manmade marine pollution and debris can have terrible effects on whales and dolphins and the places where they live, eat and breed. But whales and dolphins also live in a world of sound. They communicate, find their way around and locate food using sound – it is their key to survival.
Plastic pollution in our oceans poses a real threat to whales and dolphins. Between 5 million and 13 million tonnes of plastic leak into the world’s oceans every year. That’s more than the combined weight of every single blue whale on Earth.
Loud underwater seismic searches or surveys (pulses of noise sent down to the seabed) to locate oil and gas, military exercises using powerful underwater sonar, and increasing levels of boat activity all create an ocean full of noise and the levels are increasing.
For whales and dolphins, ‘listening’ is as important as ‘seeing’ is for humans. Noise pollution threatens whale and dolphin populations, interrupting their normal behaviour, driving them away from areas important to their survival, and at worst injuring or sometimes even causing the deaths of some whales and dolphins.
Yet there are currently no accepted international standards regarding noise pollution in our seas. Because we don’t really know what long term damage pollution in all these forms is doing to whales and dolphins we have to act now. Why?
http://uk.whales.org/issues/pollution?_ga=2.209874141.934774998.15164950...
So dolphins, whales don't like seismic or oil rigs drilling ya reckon. Scientific proof is where pal.
In my back yard we have an offshore industry that's been going fifty years and guess what, right amongst it is a growing blue whale population and dolphins frolicking behind seismic boats not swimming away.
Scientific research to back up your claims is where?
Speaking of backing up claims......where is yours.....???
Eddiewouldo provided quotes and a links ....
i dont think im going to believe you sorry inzider.....especially without the scientific evidence......
Whatever pal
This is from people I know that have seen it first hand re seismic survey.
I can post articles and photos to back up my claims but I'm not going to because sharing a photo might make you want to come and see for yourself and you might bring a surfboard and add to the too many fucksticks in the water.
Fair point inzider, and i Have seen some information to support the theory that seismic activity doesn't bother marine mammals. Don't worry about me coming to crowd your waves.... it sounds bad going by your attitude...... I'm busy trekking across Australia and make ceryain to avoid populated areas... Thanks for your interesting argument.....that was cool story
https://thenorwoodresource.org.au/2013/10/18/how-do-whales-and-dolphins-...
Plenty of information about seismic activity bothering whales too...
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0086464
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/seismic-stress-for-whales/...
Quote:
'It was the first evidence that constant exposure to low-frequency ship noise may cause chronic stress in whales, with potentially devastating consequences for reproduction.
The findings have implications for all baleen whales, which communicate using low-frequency sound, including humpbacks, which pass though areas of heavy ship traffic.'
Go on then,believe what you read in the papers like a good brainwashed citizen.
Blue whAle numbers have doubled in recent years around here and wow they are Co existing with Australian based oil companies, fancy that
So you've google legended some articles well done. Still don't believe scientists if they are paid to have a certain slant.
Have fun on your hike. Hope you've got your hemp based phone on you and rammed earth keyboard and mouse not to mention fart powered camp stove to cook your fresh organic locally produced free range vegetables.
http://wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/where_we_work/arctic/wildlife/whales/?21...
This link has some interesting stuff including some whale songs and whistles.
'Listen to ocean sounds'
Sounds provided by the Scripps Whale Acoustics Laboratory, UCSD
Anthropogenic sounds
Floating oil platform thrusters 0:09
Stationary oil platform 0:09
Natural sounds Beluga whistles 0:14
Bowhead song 0:59
Sea ice 0:24
'This WWF report details the problems increasingly noisy oceans are creating for whales. Those problems include finding mates, finding food, and potentially driving whales away from prime habitat.
“We’re finding evidence of increasing levels of noise in all of our oceans” say Aimee Leslie, Global Cetacean and Marine Turtle Manager for WWF. “Large ship traffic, offshore oil exploration and development, and military exercises are all contributing to a barrage of noise buffeting ocean life. This cacophony is hard on cetaceans that use sound for essential communication.'
“The key is taking immediate action to reduce noise where we can,” says Leslie. “We can wait for better technologies and more research, but we already have enough information to know ocean noise is a problem, and we already have some tools to start fixing it.”
I think Japanese whaling fucks with the whales quite good too