Margaret River Pro Forecast Update
Yesterday the Woz squeezed out one round of surf in building, wind-affected swell, but there'll be a bunch of lay days this week before the weather starts to clear into the weekend.
With the first half of the waiting period playing out to script, let's look towards the second half for signs of hope.
A strong progression of mid-latitude storms will continue to wreak havoc over the coming days, with weak, mid-period swells in the 5-6ft range under varying onshore winds.
Into the end of the week, a stronger and better aligned polar front will project a swell-generating fetch up towards the region, but it'll be quite south in direction.
Overall wind strengths aren't especially strong resulting in mid-period swell energy with some stronger groundswell due to arrive from midday onwards, with both easing through Saturday.
6-8 foot sets are due across Main Break on Friday but the wind will linger out of the SW, moderate in strength making for bumpy conditions. Whether or not they'll push the green button for a competition day looks to be a 50/50 call with better surf to come.
A high pressure system should slide in on the weekend, bringing better local winds: easterly each morning giving way to weak sea breezes, as Friday's mix of swells ease. Clean, easing 6 foot+ surf should see competition get back underway on Saturday, with smaller 4 foot+ waves on Sunday (possibly another lay day).
The final three days look to be blessed with a couple of new southwest groundswell pulses, though again the main issue is the local winds.
These swells will be generated by back to back lows moving through the Southern Ocean, north of the Heard Island region, with the first being strongest, though smallest and least favourably aligned, the second slightly weaker but broader in scope and much longer-lived.
The first southwest groundswell should arrive Sunday night and peak Monday morning with sets to 6 foot+ at Main Break, with the secondary swell arriving later Tuesday, peaking Wednesday morning in the 8 foot+ range.
At this stage, Monday looks clean with light offshore winds ahead of sea breezes, while a deepening low moving in across the region on Tuesday may bring less favourable strong S/SE winds - not ideal for Main Break, though surfable.
We should see winds swing back offshore (though possibly quite strong) on the final day of the waiting period, providing great waves to finish in.
We'll continue to keep an eye on things and update developments in the commentary below.
Comments
Overlapping heats. Nike.
Hopefully see a few more lefts surfed that way.
Wozzle shrugs off the early forecast again!
Is it possible to run say the women at main break and the men at the box at the same time if conditions allow for both, this way it would condense the time required to run the comp.
There's no need, they should find plenty of contestable days.
Thanks Craig
Nope that would be sexist.
It'd be saying 'the girls can't handle the box so we'll throw them out on the fat burger across the bay instead'.
But there'd be one way of avoiding that issue.
Throw the women on the box and the men on mainbreak.
There'd no doubt be shit tons of complaining from the male competitors,spectators and online audiences.but it wouldn't be accused of sexism.
Maybe reverse sexism instead lol.
But getting to see JJF own mainbreak might make it easier to take.
Break out the step ups
Second last day of the waiting period could see some proper huge Margie bombs in clean enough conditions to compete and be fully tested in... Will they wait and be up and ready for it? Some for sure...others maybe not... But yeah, the last day looks like it might be the best... So, will the WSL hold out until the last two days, that is the question? I reckon local contest director Mike McAuliffie (former Aussie champ) will want to hold out until the biggest two days at the end. Sadly though, they don't always listen to Mike.
So are we looking at any potential days at the box?
Saturday would be the day but the swell is too south. Otherwise Sunday too small and south and then the swells next week look to be with winds from the south-eastern quadrant. So no.
That's a bummer
Cheers
I live Southwest. Takes me a drive south to hit the coast. On few days off it's always too south.
I am officially well and truly over southerly. There... you have it.
I otherwise enjoy your forecasting Craig. Nice work.
So, quick maths. 70 heats all up @ 30mins a piece = 35hrs non stop. You could at least wipe 1/3 off that with overlapping heats till round of 16 lessening the time needed and increasing the window for finals in the best quality. Even if the best of the waiting period was the first couple of days, what’s to stop em smashing it out, maximising the surfer's competing in the best waves. What’s the con of overlapping heats till the quarters? Less screen time for the ads when the 1.6k people are live watching on youtube?
Edit: Off topic
Nick, there is no ‘con’ to overlapping heats. It maximises waves ridden, minimises time to complete the event and makes the viewing so much better. It also increases the opportunities the surfers get.
If you were the WSL and thought that drawing out the time was a better option, then that might be considered a con, but having two surfers sitting around for a few minutes of action per half hour is not riveting watching, except for us tragics.
Overlapping heats is the best idea the WSL has come up with, although I think Stu said it was Slater’s idea (although thousands would have thought of it before him, without having the clout to make it happen).
Love overlapping heats. I’d be happy for every heat to be overlapping.
Can you please not use the word blessed to describe incoming swell.
amen
Small chance it could be clean early in the morning before the light onshore hits, wobbly, but maybe contestable for half a day or so.
Thanks, Craig - definitely a more positive outlook than the previous forecast!
Let's hope it verifies, the Woz could finish the event with sizeable swell and good conditions -
Glass half full Craig, they will need more than overlapping heats to get through the event, minimum windows that are deteriorating , I wouldn,t be waiting for the last two days that are already slipping away
The onshore masters and its going to be a shitstorm , a bit unfair for the surfers that get chopped off the tour cause they cant surf big (ish) wonky and or onshore surf , it will make it very entertaining for the viewers (and the cynics!). Poor Sally Fitz ....
poor sally fitz... i have poobum stance but here bum stance is fkn crook.
Yet she still surfs way better than you.
Plonka
6-8ft? I wouldn't understate it. I'll bet my sons skateboard that it'll be easy 10-12ft+ on Friday and comfortably 8-10ft+ on Tuesday. Hope they brought bigger boards. But we seem to say that every year.
Should make for great viewing.
I updated the WA Forecaster Notes yesterday and increased projected wave heights (though 10ft+ Fri and 10-12ft+ Tues).
https://www.swellnet.com/reports/australia/western-australia/margaret-ri...
Sweet. Sorry Ben, didn't see that.
Yep solid, it's all upgraded further since early this week.
I'd say tomorrow looks more in the 10ft+ (just checked the winds yesterday and much stronger and better aligned) range (4x overhead) and the swell for Tuesday arvo/evening has been upgraded and this will be probably 12ft+.
Agh Ben's comment as well. Tuesday's will be bigger than tomorrow's.
Wow! That's solid, I'd find an excuse to be stuck at work, or a birthday, or something. Anything over 8ft (3x OH) and I'm out.
Will be awesome to see them finish in primo conditions, rather than dying swell and onshore. Looking fwd to next week! Fck I love May.
Who's desk do the WSL have to kneel under to get a one day extension and finish with a box shootout?
Northpoint no longer an option correct?
Next Tuesday a North Point day for sure, should be pumping. Its supposed to be available to the WSL until 2024. If not mainies will be as big, maybe a bit bigger than it was last year on that big Sunday in the comp.
Yep, solid North Point day.
I suspect big fat lumpy left at mainies tomorrow with that south in the swell. Be interesting to see how the rights handle it, they'll probably be good.
Reckon they will try and run tomorrow?
They may do, winds light E/NE tending variable and remaining so all day.
E/NE winds tomoz? or satdy?
Tomorrow. Variable E-ENE.
Fast moving fetch, moving out of swell window pretty quickly. Be interesting to see what size it is in the morning.
Actually it's been quite slow moving, has pushed up from south-west of the state the last day or so.
Yeah right. Been underperforming down this way so far, although guessing the main energy hasn't quite reached here yet. Stood on a rocky headland this morning for a couple of hours and watched a slowly building windswell in the 6-8ft range...if that.
Buoys saying 3m now so more energy arriving. Cheers for the maps. Moving straight at us too so should be good! Hindcasting is something i need to do more of!!
Yeah juice not expected until tomorrow.
Ok. So we got swell. Is this gonna be Pipe all over again?
Do they have the Equipment..
If I hear “we didn’t bring boards for 10ft Mainbreak” they will hear me screaming from the GC!
It’s Margs in April... it gets big... bring the right boards!
Its 11;30pm and its S/SW at 15 to 20knts
Buoys defo ticked upwards tonight
Still a bit of lingering S'ly flow.
Much lighter and SE now.
Looking fwd to watching some heats in some juice.
Craig Is your ENE call a bold prediction or you referring to the professional forecasters secret treasure trove of tools?!
Just the tools I use daily, looks light all morning with weak sea breezes.
Yeah right, thanks. Your call just seemed to be going against the grain of the models and I'm wondering if I was missing something! As you know, there'll be a big difference in wave quality between the models and an ENE. Anyway, here's hoping for a good day ahead.
Epic call Craig!
Would love to know what gave you the confidence to make that call.
Might have to pay extra for that!
+1 to that. Another epic call Craig and SN. The best in the business.