Rip Curl Pro Early Forecast
After a two year hiatus, Bells is back for Easter, filling out a packed April calendar along side the Formula One, AFL and International Comedy Festival.
Although the Southern Ocean is in its transition period from summer to winter, bringing increasing storm and frontal activity, it'll be against the climatic grain for the event to score a run of clean, consistent groundswell.
This would be a sight for sore eyes. Photo: Romy Becker-Roache
You see, the Victorian and mainly Surf Coast region has copped the rough end of the stick regarding the back to back La Niña summers, and with a resurgence of the cool water signal across the Pacific Ocean over the past fortnight, unfavourable high pressure looks to persist across the south of the country throughout the waiting period.
The problem with La Niña is that it shifts the sub-tropical high pressure belt further south, putting a dampener on the Roaring Forties as well as kickstarting a local easterly wind regime.
Over the past fortnight we've seen moments of lighter winds and fun swells across the Surf Coast, but what's the long range outlook for the Rip Curl Pro waiting period which kicks off next Sunday, the 10th of April?
Firstly, the week leading up to the event looks void of any meaningful surf as a strong blocking high sets up in the Great Australian Bight, deflecting incoming frontal systems away to the south-east.
This will bring persistent easterly winds with small levels of background south-west swell mixed in with some weaker, localised south-east windswell.
The high is expected to be pushed off to the east late next week by a mid-latitude storm tracking east from under Western Australia but swell wise this isn't ideal as Cape Otway shadows any swell tracking at this latitude (west in direction). The best swell generators originate at more polar latitudes, coming from a more southerly angle, straighter on to the Surf Coast. There's a chance that the system pushing in from the west could deepen on approach to Victoria, providing the first contestable swell for days two and three of the waiting period, but we'll keep a close eye on this.
If the swell fails to show there are usually backup locations available for the event (13th Beach, Johanna, and Woolamai have been utilised in the past) but this is off the cards this year with organisers having to stay local, juggling between Bells and Winkipop.
Under this scenario and if unfavourable north-east 'devil winds' develop, Bells handles them a touch better than Winki due to the slight difference in the alignment of the reefs. When small though, Winki is the preferred option with faster running walls and steeper faces.
Bells is slightly better aligned for northerly winds compared to Winki
The medium-range forecast charts are pointing towards a poor setup in the Southern Ocean following any swell seen during the opening days of the waiting period with higher than normal pressure developing across the Roaring Forties with low pressure in the Tasman Sea. This would result in no significant swell-generating storms in the favoured swell window along with unfavourable winds.
While it's not looking ideal at all, it only takes one of the mid-latitude systems to deepen in the Bight to generate some quality groundswell, though whether the local winds come to play is the main issue.
We'll provide further updates as we near closer to the event window.
Forecast Mean Sea Level Pressure anomaly (difference from normal) for the dates 11-18th April. Source: ECMWF
Comments
Grim. How come it's not mobile this year?
Just beat me to the punch BNKref.
Thanks for the insights Craig. Curious as to why they are unable to travel. COVID?
"If the swell fails to show there are usually backup locations available for the event (13th Beach, Johanna, and Woolamai have been utilised in the past) but this is off the cards this year with organisers having to stay local, juggling between Bells and Winkipop."
Not sure the reasoning sorry, but that's the word, Bells and Winki only. Likely linked to the cost of having to move the whole infrastructure.
A tent, a card table, a few camp chairs, good to go.
The Southside pro?? Geez looks like a shocker. Fingers crossed for some kind of improvement. I'll pretend i didn't read a possible 'trifecta la nina' below.
Try getting short term planning permission to move a circus that is not that popular with locals from one area to another area where it will be not that popular with the locals....
Might look like simple fun from the outside - but the bump in starts bloody months out - power, scaffolds, fencing, trucks, tents, merchandise store, secret areas for people more important than you - and then when you get close to the date you can't park and you feel like an illegal immigrant when you try to get down to the beach.
Do you have an events background Bungan?
Bump in is very industry specific term.
( I did. Don't miss it one bit.)
any extremely long range forecasts available relating to the dissolution of La Nina in 2022?
is it forecast to go before the end of winter?
for the love of.... please....
Unfortunately not at this stage. Could linger for that trifecta..
Pretty sure I speak for everyone when I say....FUCKKKKKKK!
Your mates on the Peninsula are happy with La Niña again. Thanks (and sorry).
Moving to PI for the winter
I'll bunk with you big fella
wsl has been pretty lucky of late when forecasts look shit so well see if the love still follows them
Indeed.
Totally
Gotta say that in my experience reading any surf forecast more than about three days out is pointless, other than to see if there is likely to be a massive system coming through
I disagree, under certain situations you can make confident forecasts 1-2 weeks out, even more so regarding if a region will see an active swell regime and favourable winds when looking at Indo, Fiji, Hawaii etc.
Fair enough, but Sydney forecasts a week out seem to usually be incorrect across the board. Swellnet forecaster notes a few days out is the most accurate resource in terms of making sense of the data and how the swells will hit each part of the coast though.
Agree, unless we're looking at a sustained trade swell pattern from the east or southerly swell regime from the Southern Ocean.
Yeah it seems to be rare that a forecasted solid south swell doesn't show up in some shape or form, at least where it is forecasted less than a week out
There is always the wave pool as a backup venue. At least it would be better than 1 to 2ft SE rubbish at Bells / Winki. Can't see it happening though.
They would have to have booked the whole joint out about a month ago. Its not like you can rock up and kick the free surfers out and run heats.
More likely to get barrelled in the Tulla Tub than small onshore Bells sadly
Sounds like one to miss
I have been following forecasts and comments lately for down Vicco and cannot help but think.. 'Can't be THAT bad'.
I grew up in Perth and it’s honestly been Perth summer bad
I grew up in Perth. That's why I'm thinking it just cannot be THAT bad.
Geez ... it must be bad.
When in SE wind pattern it's more like a Geraldton summer, where the southerly is incessant. When the wind has backed off, it's been more like Spot or Avalon about head high, light winds. Which has been nice. Much bigger tidal variations tho.
It hasn't been like knee high Scarb for weeks and strong offshore mornings: only a few days tiny and offshore.
So... not THAT bad.
I knew it. Onya VJ.
Windows of opportunity.
Those windows have only opened up in the last few weeks really but they are just that still. Previous years this is prime time for the beachies right now but still nothing but S’s in the extended forecast. The side/onshore (with small to tiny swell) was relentless from Nov to Feb, the Geraldton call is a good one. Crappy peaky knee to waist high junk that isn’t worth the petrol if you have other hobbies to keep you busy
its been that bad since the start of 2020. in my 35 years I can't remember it being rremotely being this bad. Also, i reckon the seasons are changing from 30 years ago. Start later and finish later.
At least the chicks will get called on.
"organisers having to stay local"
"unfavourable north-east 'devil winds'"
The Rip Curl Pro at Drainos.
Imagine that. Pipe, Sunset, Drainos, J Bay, G-Land
And that's 1-2ft Drainos peak with the VALs.....
Very Average Locals?
Vulnerable Adult Learners
Hahaha.
bahhaaaahhahahaahaahaha... crying..... so true though
Perth to surfing is as Darwin is to skiing
You wouldn't think it with the amount of carnts in the water, even when flat there's still farkers bobbing around. They must be sick of rubbing one out to be out there.
I don’t think the surf forecasts or weather forecasts have been very accurate this year, especially if more than a few days out. I looked at one on Monday saying it would be 2 foot on Friday, now 2 days later it is saying it will be 8 foot.
It's been a tricky couple of years for forecasting specifics regarding winds and acute westerly swells due to all the troughy weather and mid-latitude systems, but synoptic trends are easier to grasp. And it's not looking ideal at this early stage.
A shame for the comp indeed, but it also would have been a bit rough if the comp scored great waves for a few days when it has been so bad for so long with bells and/or winky off limits.
FR has been pretty spot on with the forecasts for the Mid/Sth NSW region, and it has been very dynamic (and pretty good except for the brown water). Feel for you boys WA through Vic atm - least you can travel now. Love the Bells Easter weekend being a veg on the couch watching the boys take to it on a wave that demands man turns- hope the forecast improves as there is only so much manufactured aerials in slop I can watch.
"Under this scenario and if unfavourable north-east 'devil winds' develop"
Is that meant to be SE devil winds?
If NE is the devil then maybe SE is just pure armageddon?
Well in my opinion a cross-shore NE wind is way worse than straight onshore SE. Ie adding all those bumps and ridges up the faces so you can't get your rail in. SE in more than surfable, but usually just sloppy and junky.
True that ...
I've just always associated devil winds with SE, but I see your point.
Although if its NE most crew head to a NE friendly spot. Whereas SE winds affect pretty much everywhere give or take a few spots.
Devil wind usually refers to a wind you're surfing into rather than away from. Both are 'onshore' but waves coming up the face on a pointbreak - think northerly at J'Bay for instance - make for relentless chatter and chop.
No way that NE wind is worse than SE wind on the SC. What a wild comment and I love your work Craig usually
To me it's relative to breaks over here where the cross-shore wind is way worse than an onshore.
Ie on the East Coast point breaks strong west wind adds lots of bumps and chops, NW full devil. Sure NE is bad as well but for surfing, NE provides less bumps though and more so local windswell lumps.
Also I thought about this in my head re NE or SE and settled with NE. Either way both bad.
anything from North to East winds gives us devil winds too choppy to surf...low tide bowl with a SE at least the second wave is clean...not looking good but maybe Sunday might have a small head high swell with a possible NW wind????
Thats a shame was looking forward to the Bells event and WSL has been blessed
this year with good surf. While the EC has been super consistent the west has had
a shocking year and Bali has also been really bad is this because of La nina?
Yep.
Se wind worse than ne in my opinion.
To be fair swellnets long term forecast predicted the surf for pipe comp would be crap…
Maybe the bells forecast is just as accurate?
Yep totally fair but it was over-performing mid-period swell and great peak season sand. Just not classic big NW groundswells but great moderate to large mid-period WNW swells.
Well I've never been sooo un-surf fit in all my life, when it finally comes good, I'll be kooking it up, all over the place. Probably take most of the season to get some form back.
I reckon we are all going to need 2 to 3 extra litres just to paddle out when the waves finally arrive.
Am I the only one out there who hopes for horrible forecasts at every WSL event? I hope they get garbage waves and the whole tour goes down the shitter where it belongs.
sometimes I think this, then you watch a contest like the last Pipe Masters and its as good as surfing gets
Cough cough cough….Slater to call in sick ?
A couple days ago he commented LFG (let's fucking go) with a bunch of exclamation masks on an instagram post of MF getting the wildcard.
"Holy sausage sandwich Batman!"
"Looks like a sausage sizzle Robin"
Is it just me, or do the models suggest a much better forecast....?
Yep Shane. Ive been watching that. Is potential toward the end of the waiting period, but 16 days out is a very long time with Vicco forecasting. Craigs call has been pretty spot on so far. Be nice if Endless Bummer turned to Autumn Splendour!!!
April fool?
Its heaps more fun to get pissed and sleep in at the bells comp anyway
Looking at the latest long range it’s tiny all waiting period.
Winds good for more exposed spots though. Surely they’ll have to be considering making a move.
A poor outlook for 2022 autumn surfing conditions in Vic. .
:-((
Wonder what the warm ups have looked like, I haven't been to winki for a bit but given this swell/wind combo surely bulk of the comp will be run there (which as a live spectator is shit IMO)?
Has WSL ever called an event incontestable?
I remember an old Sarges vid where they called it off at the quarters i think. Pretty sure it was Lacanau or somewhere in France. It was literally dead flat. They even had boats going past trying to make wake! From what i remember all prize money was split equally amongst the quarterfinalists.
Maybe they can gee up a couple of those tankers coming out of Pt Phillip Bay to do a little detour past the famous cliffs. Might turn Bells bowl into a slab with the right angled ship wake!!
Outrageous as that idea seems a desperate contest director will be seriously considering it. Ben Gravy to get the wildcard
I just wish La Nina would f off back to were ever it came from .
... said no-one on the East Coast.
The Bells waiting period on the East coast? Off the charts and the pros will all be stuck down at winki dodging rocks where no one can see them
Ah true, it's a misplaced comment, thread-wise. But irrespective of the Rip Curl Pro, I'm sure most Victorians share that sentiment year-round... But not east coasters!
Sorry mate not sure what you mean. I'm just reflecting on how crappy the surf will be here at Bells while looks like another round of cyclone action on the east coast with pumping surf but the pros will all be waiting around for the call which may never come. Round one exit maybe not all bad?
They should be more mobile. Surf, like love, never runs on time.
All good, just ignore me. I haven't had enough irony in my diet of late, that's all.
Haha sure there's a supplement for low irony, maybe a shot of pickle juice? and you're much too smart to ever ignore. 24/7 hilarity in the comments section keeping Victorian surfers sane atm
If only they could move it to Mereweather this year!! Argh...i feel dirty even saying that!! Bells forever!!! ha.
The Easter slot is prime but it's right on the edge of the swell season!? Regardless Huey has dished up everything at Bells over the years, everything but 2 full weeks of onshore dribble. #mereweathernow
Kelly might be out with COVID.
Sheesh! That's gonna get chins wagging.
How's the irony on that little nugget? Pickle juice is instant success.
Those A-Listers, can't disinfect to save themselves
Still looking dire. There's a small easter swell on the charts but the winds look terrible.
Well, I can see lighter winds and maybe offshores locally amongst the period so there's that. Time to get creative with approach, amount of foam etc
A little optimistic maybe, but there is a huge huge storm tracking down near Antartica at the start of the waiting period. The fetch is thousands of k's with serious winds. Early days looks like it is too W to E in alignment but i reckon its big enough that there's a possibility it could with a slight tweak in surrounding weather, point it's gun slightly Bells way and there'll be swell. Plenty of it too if it the miracle does come off. Fingers crossed!!!!
Not saying you should pay me or anything Swellnet, but geez, i reckon i'm allowed to gloat a little over this early crow! I'll be checking my mailbox daily for my cheque!! I'll assume after waiting 3 weeks it's just slow mail and i'll wait a little longer. hehe. Yew!
I reckon you deserve 50% payment bd. You were half right, there was swell.
But there wasn’t plenty of it compared to what Bells can provide
;-)
Haha. I reckon pay me half, charge me double for the lack of swell at the end. Cheers anyway Goofyfoot.
I like your optimism BD! Looks like the LWT fires up a bit in the swell window as well around that time and latest models show an improvement in the wind forecast. Hope it does fire up, with the dynamics of a tour constantly being re-assessed and changes within RC itself would hate to see Bells dropped because of a bad year.
Well i tried :-P
Where theres life theres hope..and plenty of energy coming...just the wrong way.
Can see maybe one small pulse for Bells but yup.!
It's still looking very sub-par with high-pressure set to dominate re the early forecast above.
Next week looks like a few days of small Winki. Not enough size for Bells to be worthwhile.
Wait for the next update to kick in..
Craig I spot this a lot with the model updates, every 2nd update they seem to switch wind directions the last few weeks. What’s behind that? Absolute rollercoaster of emotion checking in on them. Of course they always land on the shit update that sticks when the actual day comes, which just fucking sucks.
And this is why I trust in EC. EC long-range charts have showed the blocking system since early last week.
GFS doesn't want to give up fronts moving through, hence swaying to and fro between OK and poor.
One thing you have to keep an eye on is trends, and if the model sticks with a decent forecast and swell you can be more confident, and if not then don't trust it.
I'm glad I stuck with my guns as the forecast currently is holding with an unseasonal pattern for the period.
That’s why they pay you the big bucks Craigos. Nailing it. Now start forecasting good conditions please.
Ha, cheers. Will try!
And FWIW i still have a theory on the activity over here that's affecting the movements of the lows down below Craig ;-)
Yeah let us know.
Turns out you did start forecasting good conditions after all Craigos…I could kiss you!
I bet i'm way off but the sea surface temps here at the moment are 20 degrees plus, pretty warm. The land temps are pretty similar. All that high pressure that is sitting above us is pretty stable. I also heard from mates that were in SA that the sea temps are much lower, around 17 or 18 degrees. Anyway, that old theory of cold air going where warm air is. I'm assuming that above the ocean at the moment is alot of warm air. The early morning surfs have been foggy affairs, cold on land and warm in the water. So my theory is that although those highs appeared to dominate the synoptics and keep the lows tracking well south and not allowing them to move north off their W to E track, the warmer sea surface and surrounding air temps has slightly steered the colder air up and altered the initial track of the storms. Hence, thats why the swell appeared magically.
OK. Go your hardest. Shouldn't be hard to find holes in this theory from an uneducated numpty that only looks at Windy TV. hehe. Cheers.
You're on the right track BD but those small temperature differences are too localised to influence the global synoptic patterns like ENSO (Pacific Ocean) and the IOD (Indian Ocean) do.
And you've got much warmer than normal temperatures down around the South West right now, and with the cooler air masses, you're seeing that early evaporation (love that). Fairly normal in autumn though when the difference is quite stark.
In the end we didn't get the classic autumn frontal progressions, just favourable windows of wind and good polar swells. So they lucked out as now it's turned back off again.
Unreal. Thanks Craig. It's a never ending feast of info through you gurus.
Yeah love those early morning sessions in the fog....was blessed to have a dawnie the other day in the fog, crisp clean waves, couldn't see the beach and a pod of 15 dolphins hung around and surfed under and around me for 15 or so minutes. Pure magic. Cheers.
Well over a decade ago, my first pre-dawn glimpse and paddle out at a desert right was with those steam columns rising with still, glassy conditions. Couldn't tell the size but on paddling out in the eerie light I was greeted with pumping 4ft bowls. A moment I'll never forget.
Time to give it up at Bells IMO. Its a shitty wave (for high level progressive surfing) even when its good.
Keep it to one x fat wave (margs) on tour as its got way more power/size/consistency and John John is a freak to watch out there.
I think I'm tending to agree with you Burleigh.
I've always been a defender of Bells, but after 2 years with no Bells, I've realised: absence did not make the heart grow fonder.
Rip Curl were quick on the draw when the Woz needed a sponsor for the Finals Series, and as Rip Curl love Bells, there's zero chance the Woz will drop the comp.
Totally. Bells is probably the most secure location on Tour.
100%. Bells and Pipe are the only events that give the Wozzle any historical cred. At any rate, The Box notwithstanding, Margs as a wave is boring - two turns “onto the bricks” yawn.
Interesting comment, FR. The local scuttlebutt is that Bells is always on tenterhooks, hence the outrageous sycophantry of the boosters, Council and State Government and the seemingly relentless desire to offer the contest every inducement - natural, built and financial - to stay there. Take the absurd and flagrantly underhanded proposal for an elevated walkway at Winki as Exhibit A, and still there's no clarity about exactly who was behind the push to do it or the misinformation to support it. What a waste of time, money and trust that was for everyone.
This year they've even completely monstered the Winki platform with an industrial marquee so there's no public access and we're a week out from the waiting period. Appalling.
Wow, really! That's crazy.
These things seem to grow every year mate. Honestly I’m not missing the circus (and the clowns that blow in for it) at Snapper this year
I'm seeing pockets of fun clean small to medium waves through the easter weekend and beyond....Sad for the doomday swell forcasters!
Just keeping expectations tempered Nick H. A realist :)
Craig, do you think this means South Aus will be on over Easter with those easterly winds and a mid-latitude storm tracking east from under Western Australia?
That's for this weekend, long term looks slower..
And... the pendulum swings slightly back towards negative territory. Well, not completely 'negative' relative to the last year or so, but still quite a ways from what we'd like to see.
Just wondering how WSL and Sponsors would react today if we had a re run of 1982 comp when Mike Newling and others [Newport plus boys ? ] were fully tanked and playing up on the rocks at Bells and Big Mike swam out with a can of Beer to give Tommy a swig during the Final...
You need to run that one by Jed. He and Vaughan have a Swellian bus running from Torquay Hotel to Bells and back.
I can feel my brain cell count shrinking just thinking about that bus.
Esp with Jeremy Byles as Conductor
Anyone seen Bylesy around. FR? Is he doing ok?
Yeah, I've seen him. Tough times for him.
No good. It wasn’t looking positive last time I saw him.
Latest model based pre-Easter outlook suggests 6ft of E/SE windswell with gale force cross-onshores. Uurrggh.
Lorne Point!! Damn, they can't move. Sounds like heaven for the Brazilian air jockeys though. Claims for days!
I imagine there'll be a few pros taking a boat across the heads that day...
I wouldn't think so.
Shsssh
And... the 6ft E/SE windswell disappears a couple of model runs later. Back to 3-4ft groundswell with moderate SE winds.
The models have been erratic at long range for the last week or so (often the case when there's a regional TC lurking nearby), so it's still hard to build confidence for the Easter outlook.
It’s been fucked here for 5 months. Would have been a serious stroke of luck for the Woozle if that just happened to change in the comp window.
Meanwhile, at Snapper/Kirra bahahaha!
Prediction : Steph knocked out in round 3 in 2 ft slop governed by poor wave choice…. Or no wave choice for that matter. Twitter abuzz with retirement calls for the goat. Steph’s team left to ponder if riding sub 5’6” twins on long peeling righthanders was the appropriate strategic warm up. Write off 22 ….. back door 23 with a few good results via wildcards Mickey Wright style or lower standards ( and ego ) and hit the CS.
Shame that ultimate surfer thingy didn’t get a second round
Fun grovel conditions out of the south-east..
Just like an East Coast beachy.
Rumor is UrbanSurf to be a backup venue!
Here's the latest update: https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2022/04/07/forecast-upda...