2025 MEO Rip Curl Portugal: Day Four

Mens round of 32 completed today via thirteen overlapping heats held in chunky, overhead, wonky, onshore Supertubos. It was baffling why they didn't continue through the Round of 16, it's not like they have the luxury of a stacked forecast. The Woz have already called it off for the next two days and the wind forecast looks like crud. In short, what are they waiting for? More onshore junk?

Another super grindy day with low scoring heats, although to be fair the surfing was very harshly scored by judges. Two solid and clean turns was a mid-5 to mid-6. Excellence was reserved for big airs and only a couple were made.

There's been a subtle but significant shift back towards scoring airs this year on the CT after a relatively fallow period. Airs barely featured over the last couple of Finals Days, for example, despite them being held at one of the best air venues on the planet. The shift has come from the Challenger Series, where contestants - now CT rookies - Marco Mignot and Joel Vaughan consistently won heats at beachbreak venues throwing punts.

Mignot followed up his stirring Gladiator-style speech yesterday with action against two-time winner Griffin Colapinto by throwing a massive punt at one of the heavy Supertubos sections that had bucked off pro surfers all morning long. The resulting 8-point ride was sufficient to send Colapinto packing and continues the poor start to the year for the perennial final fiver. It's not that Griff has surfed bad. He packed monstrous caves at Backdoor with exits denied by millimetres. Looked insane at the Desert Tub but was stooged by a dud wave that should have been resurfed. Here against Mignot he looked completely dominant through the majority of the heat.

Griff's 13.30 total, would have won every other Round of 32 heat bar the one featuring Italo Ferreira.

Perhaps the 6's awarded to Griff were a little undercooked, there would be reason for Team Colapinto to feel a little roasted by what 2025 has dished up so far. Crosby out injured, Griff sitting on a bunch of weak results after three starts.

Griffin Colapinto (WSL/Masurel)

A few heats previous when Jordy Smith was in the water quietly demolishing Al Cleland Jnr, commentator Mitch Salazar claimed Jordy's experience was key. In fact he made a stronger claim that experience "was everything". While that may be true in some situations and some venues – who would discount Pipe experience, or Jordy's J-Bay experience - it does carry some downsides.

Experience, especially in pro surfing, slowly but surely breeds conservatism. It's built into the model. Why would you risk a wave going for a big air when you could surf it to a 7 with a few turns? Calibrating the dial almost inevitably means it gets turned downwards in competition - with few notable exceptions, Italo Ferreira being the main one. Age produces the same effect, with the solitary exception of Robert Kelly Slater, who managed several times to advance the radicalism of his approach including into his late-thirties and early-forties.

Colapinto himself has suffered badly from the effect of increasing conservatism. His last two showings at Trestles were marked by safe surfing, at least by his standards. He did not “leave it all out there”. There was way more he could have done.

That approach leaves him vulnerable to a death or glory merchant like Mignot - ready to throw everything at a big section and truly leave nothing in the tank.

Mignot is offering a killer template about how to succeed, to maximise your opportunity in this post-surf star environment where there's no easy meals. Have a plan, have a stance, come pre-loaded with a good team, and have something to say to draw in fans. Your surfing has to do the talking, sure, but your talking also needs to do the talking.

Marco Mignot (WSL/Masurel)

Doing the same, but to a more subtle degree is Joel Vaughan. He's not so combative as Mignot but the deadly calm approach on land and precision of the attack is winning heats. The worst crime a rookie can commit is over-respecting opponents and JV has been a textbook study in not making that mistake. He brings the full package from the opening ride. Early pick for rookie of the year.

On form it's impossible to go past Italo Ferreira for the win here at Supertubos. Last time he won, back in 2019, he had his babe on the beach clapping and cheering his every ride and it was clear Italo was enjoying the thrill of that semi-public performance. That relationship broke down but he's back this year with a new girlfriend, who also enthusiastically responds to every ride. If that factor is indispensable to his success then Italo may end up nigh on unbeatable this year, especially with no John Florence. There was no John in 2019 either. Italo has no problems at Snapper, Bells, Margies, J-Bay, Chopes, and especially no problemss at Cloudbreak. He could do it at a canter if no-one steps up to stop him soon.

Toledo looked sharp; glimpses of the old unbeatable Pip returning.

Rio continues his solid start to the year after going away at the end of last year a skinny Indo kid and returning looking like an NRL player. Muscle counts in the modern era. If you can't do big turns and displace water you'll be back at the beachbreaks pronto.

Barron Mamiya (WSL/Geada)

The scoreline didn't show it but my spidey senses came alive for Barron Mamiya's heat. He wasn't pushed in any way but he motored through plenty of big turns with perfect execution on a day when many struggled to get the last turn in. Not quite as silky as Ethan Ewing but with a touch more rawness that may suit a raggedy North Atlantic lineup. Cold water has often been kryptonite for Hawaiian surfers but Mamiya is looking comfortable in the 4/3.

If he gets past Leo in the next round, look out.

// STEVE SHEARER

MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal Presented By Corona Cero Men’s Round of 32 Results:
HEAT 1: Jack Robinson (AUS) 15.67 DEF. Ian Gentil (HAW) 2.83
HEAT 2: Liam O'Brien (AUS) 9.80 DEF. Crosby Colapinto (USA) 8.40
HEAT 3: Yago Dora (BRA) 7.57 DEF. Samuel Pupo (BRA) 7.10
HEAT 4: Imaikalani deVault (HAW) 9.43 DEF. Jake Marshall (USA) 8.80
HEAT 5: Ethan Ewing (AUS) 11.57 DEF. Gatien Delahaye (FRA) 9.10
HEAT 6: Cole Houshmand (USA) 10.97 DEF. Connor O'Leary (JPN) 10.70
HEAT 7: Filipe Toledo (BRA) 12.33 DEF. Alejo Muniz (BRA) 9.37
HEAT 8: Jordy Smith (RSA) 11.33 DEF. Alan Cleland (MEX) 9.74
HEAT 9: Italo Ferreira (BRA) 13.67 DEF. Jorgann Couzinet (FRA) 10.06
HEAT 10: Joel Vaughan (AUS) 11.73 DEF. Ramzi Boukhiam (MAR) 8.56
HEAT 11: Rio Waida (INA) 9.97 DEF. Deivid Silva (BRA) 8.83
HEAT 12: Kanoa Igarashi (JPN) 11.90 DEF. Matthew McGillivray (RSA) 8.50
HEAT 13: Marco Mignot (FRA) 14.43 DEF. Griffin Colapinto (USA) 13.30
HEAT 14: Seth Moniz (HAW) 10.20 DEF. Miguel Pupo (BRA) 9.26
HEAT 15: Leonardo Fioravanti (ITA) 12.07 DEF. Jackson Bunch (HAW) 10.90
HEAT 16: Barron Mamiya (HAW) 11.33 DEF. Edgard Groggia (BRA) 7.04

MEO Rip Curl Pro Portugal Presented By Corona Cero Men’s Round of 16 Matchups:
HEAT 1: Jack Robinson (AUS) vs. Liam O'Brien (AUS)
HEAT 2: Yago Dora (BRA) vs. Imaikalani deVault (HAW)
HEAT 3: Ethan Ewing (AUS) vs. Cole Houshmand (USA)
HEAT 4: Filipe Toledo (BRA) vs. Jordy Smith (RSA)
HEAT 5: Italo Ferreira (BRA) vs. Joel Vaughan (AUS)
HEAT 6: Rio Waida (INA) vs. Kanoa Igarashi (JPN)
HEAT 7: Marco Mignot (FRA) vs. Seth Moniz (HAW)
HEAT 8: Leonardo Fioravanti (ITA) vs. Barron Mamiya (HAW)