Hurley Pro Sunset Beach Forecast
After an insane run of swell that lasted all January and provided the best surf in recent memory for a Pipeline contest how is Sunset shaping up?
The short answer is: Not too bad.
The waiting period begins on the 11th February with a slowish start on the radar. A deep low east of the dateline had a poorly-aimed fetch, but a residual, broad fetch in behind the main intensity of the low is much better aimed in the Hawaiian swell window.
Still, surf size is only is expected to be in the 4-5ft range, with some 6ft sets, for the opening day of the waiting period - Friday local time, Saturday in Australia. With the westerly angle (298°), that will be a borderline size for the west bowl to start breaking, but it's a possible run day. Light trades will supply good/reasonable Hawaiian conditions.
Saturday continues that trend with a slight easing in size as the energy eases. Again, with the west angle it won't be favourable for Sunset Point - which breaks in smaller swells. Another marginal run day.
A few small days then ensue, almost definitely below the contestable threshold for Sunset.
A much chunkier swell is now on track for Wednesday and Thursday. A compact low with storm force winds emerges from Honshu, so west in direction the North Shore will be shadowed by Kauai, although a small amount of swell may slip through the Kauai-Niihau gap.
The storm then tracks northeast and explosively deepens and expands into a major winter-calibre storm, potentially forming another large, cyclonic gyre over the Central North Pacific. Swell production is slightly limited as the strongest winds aren't ideally aimed at Hawaii - but radial spread from such a broad windfield, and better aimed, albeit weaker winds aimed at the North Shore is expected to see a significant swell arriving on Wednesday.
Model output showing Wednesday's swell front striking Hawaii with a reinforcing pulse due one day later
Swell models have under-called wave heights from similar storms in the past month, and there's good evidence from recent runs that this swell may over-achieve. We'll need to see how the storm shapes up this weekend but its likely we'll see surf build into the 8-10ft range on Wednesday, with a reinforcing pulse Thursday also at least in the 8ft range.
Conditions look mint with light easterly-angled trades expected.
These are almost certainly run days conducted on the west bowl and potentially northwest peak.
Longer term and another active storm pushes off Hokkaido, initially as a compact system, before deepening and expanding like it's previous sibling as it reinforces the large gyre set-up over the Central North Pacific. Again, the strongest winds are not ideally aimed at Hawaii but the breadth and strength of the fetch should see another powerful pulse of surf at least in the 6-8ft range from the west to west-northwest later next week. Tradewinds look to strengthen later next week as high pressure drifts north of the Islands.
Stay tuned for updates in the comments below, or click on Swellnet's North Shore WAMs
Comments
Exciting
Looking forward to seeing what sort of lines Steph draws on a big board on a big face out there.
could really suit her style/approach.
Moore has to be red hot favourite.
Sunset is a weird wave, gonna be a bit of a downer after that Pipe contest
So good chance they will get the nothing (eg seeding) rounds done on Frid and Saturday and then wait for bigger swell. Might need to temper my expectation after such a enjoyable pipe comp.
I’ve invested a tenner on a Riss / JJ quinella, and banked the rest I made on Slater
Missed a massive opportunity with Moana, wildcards are usually 100-1.
Keeping that result in mind for another event later in the year, just quietly
Just quietly- on a online forum. Definition oxymoron :)?
Yeah I know. No mention of either the surfer or event im thinking of though. That’s about 1400 possibilities, but enough dots for anyone who cares to take a punt on it
Got what it’s worth I’m all over JJ and Steph
VF,CH
Hmmm, maybe mjw @t’eahupo
Hmmm, maybe mjw @t’eahupo
Apparently MJW was a full-on Sunset freak before her Pipe obsession. Will be interesting to see how well she surfs there, and how much her local knowledge comes through.
Otherwise my money is on Steph.
Let’s not forget Robbo
Robbo, Jordy, JJF - all incredible surfers at Sunset. I reckon Joao Chianca will be one to watch as well, given his propensity for charging without a care for life and limb.
Is MJW in the sunset comp ? She’s not listed in the fantasy pick on WSL and their heat draw isn’t up yet on the app . There’s 3 other girls from Hawaii but she’s not listed, hope I’m wrong .
From Surfline:
And yeah: it worked fabulously at Pipe, clearly. And Wong snagged a wildcard into the Sunset ‘CT, which starts up later this week. And while the possibility of big Sunset Beach sends most mortal surfers quaking in their slippers, Wong isn’t so fazed. “I used to be a full Sunset girl,” she said. “Everyone’s asking me if I know how to surf Sunset, and I’m like, ‘you guys don’t remember seeing me there for years?’ I know it’s a challenging wave. You can fully get lost there.”
Yes IB she’s now listed on the fantasy pick in group c , you can only pick 1 surfer in group c which stef gilmore is also in . Medina is now listed as injured ? ( broken heart ) and kai lenny and billy kemper have wild cards
Far out, you wouldn't wanna draw Billy Kemper at Sunset. He could easily go all the way. Beast.
Great record in the lower-rated events at Sunset:
He won the Sunset Open in 2018, and over seven starts his other best finishes were 3rd, 4th, and 13th.
He also won the HIC back in 2012, and over eights starts his other best finishes were 2nd, two 4th place finishes, a 9th and a 13th.
When it comes to the World Cup, however, in nine starts his best finishes are 9th, 17th, two 33rds, 49th and lower.
Would seem to indicate he's not as successful against higher ranked surfers out there, though it could just as easily be a case of lies, damned lies, and statistics.
Geez, fair effort on the research there Stu.
I reckon the stats don't lie.
Having said that, he's looked fitter and meaner than i reckon i've ever seen from all the footage coming out of Hawaii this winter. He got some mackers at Pipe.
unfortunately not really big enough for mental sunset the girls should
feel safe and secure. Speaking of the girls just watched the finals fuck me
they were pathetic and they pay them for that. Like being the mail person
and being paid CEO money. Girls you demanded it you got it and you failed
worse than anybody could imagine a black day for womens surfing and a
black eye for WSL. The winner was very impressive.
From a viewers perspective, I hope the Woz has a crack drone pilot lined up. The angle they used at Pipe, sitting near Gums looking up the line to Pipe, was unreal as it allowed an overview of the waves approaching the broader reef structure and how they jacked upon hitting Pipe proper.
Could we ask for something like that at Sunset? A drone hovering near the channel scanning the west and north west peaks, showing the lines of swell coming in from different angles converging on the Sunset reef.
Can't wait...Hawaii has been awesome so far.
Not too bad. Conditions look mint.
I don't need to read any more into it. Bring it on.
Will Tyler go left?
Ha!
The bald king (anyone else sick to death of the “goat”) got shacked on a left there one year I remember
Yes
Running with this forecast, picking a winner on Fantasy Surfer (mens) is gonna be harder to pick than a broken nose!!!
Lots of hats in the ring for sure.
Can't go past John John after all those clips from sunset and Haliewa and what he does in comp at solid Margs rights.
WSL have just announced:
Wildcards for Moana Jones Wong, Kai Lenny and Billy Kemper.
Gabriel Medina has withdrawn, replaced by Caio Ibelli.
Caroline Marks has withdrawn because of medical reasons, she will be replaced by Bronte Macaulay.
Yago Dora (still in recovery) will be replaced by Matthew McGillivray.
Liam O'Brien and Carlos Munoz (injuries at Pipe) will be replaced by Jordan Lawler and Barron Mamiya.
Might be getting ahead of myself, but jeez, this year's injury wildcard selection is going to be contentious.
Already Gabs, Yago, and LOB have completely withdrawn from two comps, while Carlos made the Quarters of Pipe before withdrawing and is facing two more comps out (keep in mind, at the mid-year cut surfers can only drop one contest).
So that's four surfers with legit reasons to apply for the injury wildcard, except there's just two wildcards.
Hey Stu, are you talking about the wildcards post the cut this year? Or the 2023 wildcards?
I'm not tracking but I'm assuming from your post they keep 2X wilcards (/ injury replacements) post the cut.
On the assumption Gabs sits out 2022 priority would have to go to the re-qualifying surfers, ie Yago, then to the new qualifiers, then previously top ranked CS etc.
Edit; or the immediate next ranked surfer that misses the cut, and that would probably be the conundrum against someone like Yago (who seems ready to take another step)
Yep, post cut.
However, I just checked the rule book again and it appears there's only one WSL wildcard post-cut, so potentially four surfers fighting for it.
There is room for one event wildcard at each location, however that surfer doesn't receive ranking points so it's useless for surfers trying to requalify.
After the Mid-Season Cut;
(i) one (1) Men WSL Wildcard / one (1) Women WSL Wildcard
are to be selected by the Office of Tours and Competition in
its sole discretion.
(ii) one (1) (men) / one (1) (women) wildcard/s will be selected
by the Office of Tours and Competition for each CT Event for
which the WSL has an Event Wildcard. Event Wildcards will
not receive CT Ranking Points.
Gabs out two events and maybe more, LOB out, Yago out, Carlos out, all liable to return for the back half of the season but having missed more than one event they'll struggle to qualify on points alone.
Watch this space.
Kai Lenny seems like a strange one for me. What for?
Eyeballs?
Yeah I guess. I just don't see him as a world tour CT kind of guy. I see him as this flashy bloke who is obviously a fantastic waterman but with the world already at his feet with the path he has chosen. I've seen him interviewed with his 50 near identical board quiver in the background and I dunno, just haven't fully warmed to him.
I like to see wildcards go to up and comers of people who have been grafting to make the CT or deserve an opportunity or recognition. With my logic Billy wouldn't be getting one either.
I guess its tough to think of other more capable locals who should be in instead - maybe a young buck like Eli Hannamen, Finn McGill, Makana Pang or Matahi Drollet
Red Bull are one of the presenting sponsors (who have also just inked an exclusive streaming deal with the WSL, for the Big Wave events), so perhaps it's a sponsor's wild card. Shiseido (the presenting sponsor) don't have any surfers as far as I am aware.
The rumour mill is going into overdrive.
Scuttlebutt has it that Mark Zuckerberg has lobotomised Lenny and now remote controls him via the Metaverse.
Apparently Zuckerberg can’t get his foil past the Shorey out Sunset in real life but he’s a fucken Jedi out there when using Kai as an avatar.
Think Yoda going nuts ….only with a 5’7” quad instead of a lightsaber.
Come back, Gabe - all is forgiven!
The tour is shit without you.
R-Cal back from injury in heat One.
Oh sick!
Excellent!
Next week's swell is looking juicy!
Kong.
What a legend back in the day. Todays talk about pros not being able to get waves at the premier breaks on the North Shore during free surfs.........whatever.
Kong just turned up there for his first season in the early 80's and blew minds straight away.........mainly at Sunset. Became pretty tight with the Oahu alpha pack in a fairly short space of time as a result of spending months at a time there.
Do yourself a favour and read "Kong - the life & times of a surfing legend". Great yarn about what pro surfing was like back then.
Favourite surfer when I was a little grom mostly cos of what he did in Hawaii.
Apparently he used to go out with his Dad on his trawler and jump overboard to surf outer reefs all day by himself, then get picked up again later. Sunny coast I'd assume.
All well and good but his most defining moment in his career is definitely in the classical masterpiece- Doped Youth!
Followed closely by his appearances on Ain’t That Swell poddy.
Been meaning to read that for a while. Cheers for the recommendation Ringmaster. Will get a hold of a copy.
One hell of a surfer in waves with grunt. Matched power with power. Still not many have come along like that.
Sick. Anyone got the encyclopaedia of surfing book. Wondering how detailed it is after the istagram pages undos post. Compared to Insta and Facebook versions as I have neither. Love. Reading about all the characters and tales of their surfing exploits and life journeys.
Always interested in the reporting about what's going down in hawaii. Competitions or not. Looking forward to your articles as events unfold for the remaining season. .
Form guide
Sick!
4 minutes into that and I'm almost exhausted! Relentless unreal waves.
Dream waves.
With the current forecast looking full steam ahead bombardment of large to extra large surf hitting Sunset, would it be unreasonable to assume Moana Jones-Wong goes straight to the top of the favourites in the women's again, considering she cut her teeth at Sunset, and doesn't hold any fear of large surf? Might consider actually dropping a few bucks on her this time. Wish i had have for Pipe!!
What then for Moana bd? With a solid performance at sunset would she get wildcards for the Portugal/ Aussie leg? Surely? JJF on the mens side. Should be good. 3 solid days on the forecast.
You'd reckon hey @nextswell. They couldn't deny her if she did. Not sure i'd be betting on her at 3 foot Trestles at years end though...although admittedly have never seen her surf a wave under 8 foot! ha.
When Mikey Wright did well as a wildcard they kept giving them to him and he qualified through the CT instead of the QS.
I'm going to pick Aussies.
Morgs and Ewing, with Robson as backup.
Steph and Tyler.
Love the Aussie vibe FR.
Hard to see JJF losing if it's up over 10foot i reckon.
And i think Carissa's gonna have a bee in her bonnet after Pipe and come out with fire in her belly. ...if it's up to 8foot. Over 8 foot, well Moana has so far shown she's the only woman willing to position herself on the ledge, under the peak in heavy waves...and can't imagine over 8 foot there's going to be too much performance surfing happening...just run and gun for the channel and prey to Huey you don't get gobbled up!
Zeke Lau for a smoky although i reckon he has a mental melt at CT level contests. Can't wait to see it all unfold. Another week of 2am starts coming up!
Yep, absolutely untouchable on a face like that. How can anyone compete with that?
Unreal Udo. I reckon he could do those turns in his sleep he's so comfortable doing them now.
Ewing should shine. Don’t rule out Zeke Lau. Griffin Colapinto will surprise.
I reckon JJF is even more dangerous at waves like margs and sunset. Loves those big faces. Every pipe surf for him is a free surf. Hence that insane take off (and mistake) at backdoor during the pipe quarters with Seth.
How good would a Ke12y vs John John, Carissa vs Moana final set up be?
Interesting forecast. I can't pick, any which way. ...I just can't fathom the guts to make any a pick at all.
So, Go Team Robinson. Jack vs Kelly final for the men's. Go Team Gilmore. Stephanie vs Carissa for the ladies.
If Owen and Courtney earn their way into the final, that's ok be me as well.
Come on Heuey.
Love Steph’s style, hands down the nicest to watch in head high waves. When it gets big I like Carissa. Moana was great at pipe but interested to see what she’s like when she has to hold a rail and turn off the lip.
They need 4 man heats. I hate it when two of the best come up against each other early in the comp, one has to go home early. There's no real way to predict with any confidence who the finalists will be. I'd predict a John v Jack final, but not gonna happen if they meet in the round of 16 or 32. But with 4 man heats that situation would never happen. No walk-through heats either if someone gets injured. IMO a surfing competition is about determining who is the best, not to create drama to sell to an audience.
John v Jordy
Rissole v Bella
I dunno
It's definitely a good point.
I guess you just have to rely on the seeding and that things naturally fall the way it was set up to achieve a balanced draw. Definitely far from accurate.
But i'd rather see man on man, more pressure gets put on the surfers which can either make them perform out of their skin, or make them crumble dismally, which makes great theatre for us!
Agree too with Belly, overlapping heats are the go.
Agree with 4 in the water but I prefer the overlapping heats up until the quarters. In effect it gives layered priority, you still get that 1:1 vibe and plenty of waves being ridden. Hopefully they do it all year.
Edit; yes do agree with the downside of 2 favoured surfers (irrespective of ranking) meeting early, but through the year the rankings should help sort that out, and that's the nature of 1:1 at the top level. I made a point in another thread that maybe Tati could've been a good match-up for Moana in the later rounds at pipe but she had her chance in the R16.
Going to be interesting to see how they farm out the big days between the men and the women.
How's this incredible shot by Kevin Wilkes! Zoom in!
Crazy.
That's insane!!!
The forecast pretty much calling it to look like this too by the sounds of it.
Yeeeeeew!!
hows the left!
If you want the West Peak on a 6'6 your Dreaming
Go Big or Go Home - - Gary Kong Elkerton
Unless your initials are JJF
Today 6,6 is yesterdays 7,6 though
Kong? Thought it had to be 'Gary Elkerton' or else you'd be swatted.