Forecast: The Pipeline Masters
Starting on Tuesday December 8th, the Pipeline Masters will be the first men’s CT event of 2020. Under the New World Tour Order, Pipe will be the season opener and not the closer as it has been for almost three decades.
How that changes its entertainment value remains to be seen. As the last comp of the year, the Pipe Masters was many contests in one, with each knockout heat changing the end-of-year rankings. It decided who’d be on tour next year, determined world champions, and it ended careers.
All that’s now disappeared, yet considering the brutal nature of the wave, Pipe should be able to make up for the shortfall in drama as long as it gets swell.
So will it..?
The lead up to the comp will be very active with an extra-large NW swell hitting Hawaii on Wednesday the 2nd - size will be around 15-20ft+ with all day light easterlies! - followed by four more days with waves between 6 and 10 ft.
Then on Monday the 7th - one day before the waiting period begins - another significant NW swell will hit the North Shore. This swell looks similar in size to the one previous, peaking around 15-20ft+, too large for Pipe, but the question will be whether the swell drops enough overnight so organisers can sound the hooter on Wednesday the 2nd - the first day of the waiting period.
The low that creates the swell will bomb - i.e drop 24hPa in 24 hours - however it’s positioned closer to the Hawaiian Islands than is ideal, meaning there’ll be a wide range of periods in the mix so it’ll appear raw and slightly ragged, and even though the swell will have dropped to 12-15ft on Wednesday morning (and then will drop further through the day) there’s only an outside chance competition will run.
There is, however, a very good chance the women will run at Honolua Bay, so fear not, Webcast Watchers, you will be entertained!
Wednesday the 9th will dawn with the swell edging more towards the NNW and waves in the 6-8ft range tapering towards 4-5ft as the day draws on. Winds are at present forecast to be light SE and possibly even S, which is a mild worry for a swell direction that favours Backdoor, yet aside from that there’s a strong chance competition will run on Wednesday.
By Thursday, the swell will be down to 3ft, reducing further through the day, with light and variable winds - possibly another competition day - with Friday, Saturday, and Sunday similarly small.
Whether the organisers choose to run competition during those three small days will hinge upon the development of another large swell at the far end of the forecast window. It’s too far off to have any certainty on size or timing, however considering the active state of the North Pacific they have reason to be optimistic about another round of large swell to finish the contest in.
We’ll continue to provide developments of the Pipeline Masters forecast in the comments below.
Comments
Anyone know who will actually turn up, given COVID etc, to make it a decent contest.
Of the Aussies, Ace Buchan has reportedly pulled out as with quarantine he'd miss Christmas. Apparently a lot of the younger crew are going and staying in Hawaii till the Sunset comp in mid-January and then travelling to Santa Cruz.
Bit harder for the older surfers with families to be away for so long.
I'm expecting more wildcards and alternates than usual this year.
Julian is going
Morgan Cibilic and Connor O'leary are heading over also
+ Avoca Jesus
If they fail to get the best of the best for the first leg of the tour, and I'm not putting down the young guns, surely it raises questions about legitimacy of world title at end of year.
I think they’ll get virtually everyone. Owen is the only other risk for what I can see scrolling down the list
Much like the NBA season just gone, it won't really count.
Insert a massive asterisk next to this years champion.
Those with a chance at the title will be there (Medina/Ferreira/Florence - knee dependent). Everyone else are merely bit players and basically irrelevant but for their own personal ambitions.
If Italo wins the world title, does that stamp him with three in a row?
If...will period.
Have you watched his vlog. Tearing the joint to shreds..... after he lands 2 airs on a wave.
jacksprat ever seen Jack Robinson surf?
Maybe Tom Carroll could get on the alternates list. Based on his exhibition heat a few years back I reckon he'd give some of these young whipper-snappers a run for their money.
T.C....hahaha. or what about dingles the greenskeeper from down near ballina way.... He fucken rips!!! World champ for sure. What a fucken shitshow this wsl has turned out to be.....
For some reason I have very little interest in this. Usually I would be chomping at the bit to see World Title race at good pipe. In saying that, if the conditions are good, I'll more than likely tune in, but I have very little enthusiasm this time around.
I hear rabbits is looking for a gig after bowing out of the parliament race....let him win.....
If you put aside the ridiculous idea that people are travelling internationally in the current climate, pipe masters is exciting. For me, the start of Xmas period officially begins with early mornings watching pipe.
I got my wild card entry in the mail and am staying at John John's.
Maybe we should be betting on who doesn't get Covid rather than who will do well in the title race. - Long time reader - first time typer .
Still a ways off, but the last few model runs have tempered the swell that's due to hit Oahu the day before the waiting period. If this pattern holds it increases the chances of the comp running on the 8th.
I doubt anyone will get covid if they follow basic hygiene.
all those furphies about catching Covid in the ocean have turned out to be false.
you're about as safe as you can possibly be out in the ocean, in the Tradewinds.
Hitting the bottom at Pipe notwithstanding.
I wouldn’t be so confident about that Freeride. Diseases are unpredictable.
An ex girlfriend of mine got said she got gonorrhea from a bus seat . Funny thing was the only bus I ever knew her to catch was on the same night she went on a hen’s night to a male strip show . Unlucky ! *
* Jokes .
Sorry about the late reply, I had to ring the Swellnet IT helpdesk as I was struggling to find the letter 'g' on the keyboard . I'm not so good with all this modern tech stuff. Yeah Blowin , diseases are very unpredictable , as are (ex ) girlfriends. I had an ex who blamed me for giving her gonorrhea . I thought I had a very strong case considering we hadn't had sex yet . Unlucky ! *
How did we get off the Pipe forecast so easy ?
Unusual to get large swells early season in a La Niña?
not really a La Nina pattern as far as the synoptics go in both North and South Pac.
looks more like an El Nino pattern.
Yep!
Yeap, south ocean is cranking out the storms relentlessly at the mo, and La Niña appears to have crawled into a cave. She’ll be back...my tomatoes will appreciate it, their not enjoying this 10c rain and W’tly gales!
I hear Owen is out?
Amped to have pro surfing back. Unless one of the very top guys pull out, there is no asterisk on anything.
Looking at the 'bombing' low and it's still on track with the central pressure currently forecast to drop from around 1000hPa to 960hPa in a 24 hour time period, and continue to drop down to 947hPa.
The low will move quite quickly through Hawaii's swell window, but with core wind speeds reaching Hurricane Force (65-70kts) on top an active sea state, we'll still see an XL N/NW groundswell for Monday morning.
The peak in size will likely be fairly short-lived owing to the fast movement of the low, and Tuesday could be contestable from dawn and not as big as first mentioned in the article above.
We've got plenty of follow up swell on the cards as well.
A bit of solid Waimea for your lunch break ;-)
Very nice set just now...
Odd amazing looking outer reef (3rd reef pipe?) set here too
https://explore.org/livecams/hawaii/hawaii-pipeline-cam
Good angle here as well.....dudes out on some sort of canoe. Not sure if they are lining up for one?
just tuned in to see the canoe take one all the way thru.. mental!
Epic Peahi today.. check his stories!
No I would have nightmares.
farrrrrrk that!
To help reduce a neck injury...
...and the same situation from front view. Check where Kai Lenny is, about to wear it on the head.
So heavy!!!
Perfect!
So no Covid restrictions at all in Hawaii? They never copped it?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/usa/hawaii/
That death line doesn't look flash.
what an amazing still shot from NF..
never seen a big wave shot from that angle..
obviously not the goal... but an awesome freeze frame - one that I'm glad to view from the couch with a glass of vino
He's having a fair crack at it, looks thick and mean too
I saw some side on footage of this same wave. So committed. Hows the way it's already spitting behind him as he drops into it. Total nutjob!
wow, thats balls-out commitment.
How good is that pipeline cam !!
Yeah, that pipe cam has got my day sorted at work.
My upset tip is for Medina to exit early
Early for him being sub semi finals
Final Italo versus Gabriel.
The chance of Pipe running over the weekend is slim to nil.
The next likely day is Monday (our time, Sunday theirs) with a mid-range swell due under light easterlies. Similar conditions on Tuesday albeit slightly smaller.
Pipe masters Monday morning, low tide Monday arvo.
Perfect.
Turns out it would’ve been a pretty amazing pipe masters had it been held in the usual waiting period for this year.
Well done to John winning the Pipe QS
* best QS 1000 ever?
PS - if you haven’t seen it, check out Ivan F’s wave, bullshit.
https://www.worldsurfleague.com/posts/495164/ivan-florence-drops-perfect...