Qualifying Series upheaval for 2016
With the WSL Qualifying Series moving into the last trimester the final rankings are beginning to take shape and they foreshadow a significant shake up. If the trend holds true then 2016 will see many new qualifiers making the leap onto the Championship Tour. On average, 2-4 QS surfers make the jump to the CT each year, but in 2016 a record number of QS surfers appear likely to qualify.
A quick look at the standings shows many new faces - and also nationalities! - in the top 10 and this continues down to the top 50.
For example there are:
- Just three CT surfers in the current top 10 - two of whom will qualify through the CT (Flores and Toledo)
- Seven CT surfers in the top 30 - three of whom will qualify through the CT (Flores, Toledo and Ferreira)
- Nine CT surfers in the top 50 - four of whom will qualify through the CT (Flores, Toledo, Ferreira and Dantas)
WSL Tour Co-ordinator Al Hunt has pegged this year's QS cut-off to be 18,000 points which means four surfers are currently safe by Al's estimation (see image below).
There are still four more QS 10,000s to be completed so the rankings can shift about, but whatever happens the current trend can't realistically be altered.
For example, and keep in mind we're playing hypotheticals here, it's gonna be hard for anyone outside the current top 30 of the QS to break into the top 10. As there are just seven CTers in the top 30 and three are already assured CT qualification (Toledo, Flores, and Ferreira), that means there will be - at best - four current CT surfers occupying the QS Top 10 at season's end. The upshot of that is six QS surfers getting the call up.
That equals the most QS surfers to ever get a call up, according to Al.
However the scenarios unfold it's assured of being a dogfight as the pointy end of the year approaches. At present there are 12 surfers stuffed between 12,000 points and 15,000 points, all floundering right on the bubble and just one good result away from qualification.
Of the current CT surfers, Brett Simpson, Ricardo Christie, Glenn Hall, and Matt Banting have almost no chance of qualifying for the 2016 Championship Tour. They're backmarking the current CT rankings and are barely cracking the top 100 of the QS. Christie is 99th, Hall 93rd, Simpo 89th, and Banting is 77th, though he may score an injury wildcard for next year.
Another factor to consider is the imminent retirement of a bunch of CT surfers. Rumours have circled about Taj, Bede, Parko, and Kai Otton retiring at the end of this year, never mind the ongoing conjecture about Slater. If those rumors prove true the CT Class of 2016 is going have a whole new complexion.
Comments
Is it just me who finds the whole CT and QS ranking system difficult to grasp?
It'd be nice if the WSL had a way of displaying what each QS surfer needed to qualify (i.e for the rest of the year, Surfer X needs to reach the quarter finals twice, and win once). Or, if this too hard because of all of the variable outcomes with other competitors?
Check what point total qualified last year.Now the points awarded have changed I'd say 18000 should get it done based on Dusty Paynes 1st & 2nd last year in the Primes
Question answered in the last line; any individual surfers rankings is dependant on all the surfers around him so there's too many possible outcomes. Add to that surfers double qualifying through the CT and it becomes a forecasting head wreck. Best bet is to observe the trends.
Interestingly the Allianz Pro in Portugal, a QS10,000 with max points, just reached the quarters and only two CT surfers made the 8 - Andino and Dantas, both of whom will qualify anyway.
Usually by his time of year you'd see CT surfers making a charge on the QS comps, filling the business end of the draw, rapidly climbing the rankings, however this year it just aint happening.
Upheaval, there's a que for Fuzz if ever I heard one.:-)
That's Heaving's summer campaign sorted then.
Maybe, zosea are about to unleash a change to the rankings for the "elite" CT tour? The surfers know it, and therefore no need to rush to get points on the QS, since those below the new cut off will be dropped from CT anyway ... co-incidence the rumours are for the surfers sitting on the "bubble" around the top 16?
Can anyone refresh my memory on who doesn't re-qualify in the CT and who does in the QS?
I remember it being something like top 10 of the QS and bottom 10 of the QS?
In the CT it's the Top 22 surfers.
In the QS it's the Top 10, though some surfers 'double qualify' i.e make Top 22 and Top 10, so therefore the next surfer down the rankings on the QS gets in. Some years surfers who come 14th or 15th still make it because of the number of double qualifiers.
Then each year there are 2 injury wildcards.
whats happened to matt banting?
You mean his injury or lack or results?
For the former, he copped a knee injury and was out for two comps. Can't answer the latter.
Surely Jordy will get the injury wildcard though.
Could be two injury wildcards, but then Michel Bourez has an equally good claim for the second.
jordy not really injured , he's just terrified of over head surf
After the Portugal QS10,000 the Top 10 on the QS hasn't really changed, though Mig Pupo slips into contention - he's on the bubble on the CT so not sure if he'll need his QS place or not.
The big mover is Wiggoly Dantas, now in 23rd though he's gonna qualify on the CT anyway.
The Top 50 of the QS hasn't changed. There are now only three QS 10,000's to go, one in Brazil, two in Hawaii. Any CT surfer outside the Top 50 HAS to place well in at least one of those events to give themselves any chance of qualifying through the QS.
I'm still going on the above theory; there's gonna be a big turnover of surfers in next year's CT line up.
So how do they deal with a retirement?
Does the guy who comes 23rd on the CT get the spot? or the guy who comes 11th on the QS?
"Article 25: Surfer Retirement 25.01
Upon request, WSL will provide any Surfer who has competed on the CT with the form of notice that is to be provided to become a Retired Surfer before the Surfing Season starts who will then be replaced by the Surfer next in line from the respective Ranking (CT or QS) that the Retired Surfer qualified through."
I read that as the next surfer on the CT, which means the cut off might move back a few spots this year.
Depends if retiring surfer finishes in the to 22 CT,if so position 23 qualifies but I reckon WSL should make that remaining spot a wild card spot either injury or performenced based or even leave it open for the highest QS surfer after the following years Aussie QS leg before Snapper gets underway