COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster
GuySmiley wrote:Old mariner‘s saying - you can’t nail your balls to the mast if you don’t have any.
old sailors didn't have trump v biden as their options...
or morrison v albo / shorten for t hat matter...
burleigh wrote:Swelllnet self proclaimed intellect didn’t mention his claim of “hundreds of thousands” deaths.
You want to prove this or is it all in your imagination?
Look, unlike you I can admit that was probably an overstatement. 10s of thousands is more likely, based on comparing Aus to Florida. 100s of thousands hospitalised however. Luckily for you, despite the whinging about freedoms from the likes of you and Blowin, the adults who were in charge did not let that happen. You're like the spoilt rich brats who complain about not getting the right colour BMW for your 16th birthday.
Also, I'm no intellect, just someone who has the basic lifeskill of simple mathematics.
Bye Bye Collins , gone but not forgotten. https://t.co/IsFXMAEoAm
Fuck it. Be kind......
cheers BB. Got good friends around to bounce off. Feel for those less fortunate.
sypkan wrote:about right...
https://www.theage.com.au/sport/tennis/dear-novak-here-s-why-australians...
Nah, more like tall poppy syndrome, he’s too good and knows it, we are big AO fans have never liked him, most don’t, the no vax push from the plebs was just to get rid of him cause most don’t like him anyway and they had to get to get jabbed and he hasn’t.
1000’s of Aussie’s that didn’t want to get jabbed have lost their jobs and incomes, why should he be allowed to come here and keep his.
bluediamond wrote:Regardless of your take on pro vax or vax hesitant, there's a clear fracturing of society taking place at the moment. Every person you meet you have to ascertain in some way their stance on it so as to understand how their life is being affected.
Personally it's a minefield of dealing with an ever enclosing net of forced mandates.
I've never been a depressed person, normally pretty upbeat, but lifes pretty fucken depressing at the moment as the cliff approaches and the point of no return of being a complete outcast of society. I can still go to road houses, i can still go to the beach. I can still go to the supermarket.
I don't think it matters your stance on vax, i think it should be acknowledged there's alot of people suffering seriious mental, spiritual and financial hardships and heartache at the moment, and before you scream ANTIVAX, because of your own particular viewpoint, remember that it's not an easy choice for people to take a stand and say no. That's my 3cents worth anyway.
For sure, I can rattle off heaps we know have lost jobs in long time careers and just starting out, I am lucky I have run my own business for 30 years so answer to no one, we are just laying low socially to it blows over, don’t even want to waste money on a holiday with all the rules and nappy wearing.
not looking for a fight, or even a reply... but this post os all over the shop...
"Nah, more like tall poppy syndrome, he’s too good and knows it,"
what you call 'tall poppy syndrome', ...i call don't be a dickhead... (or boofhead...)
a unique element of the once egalitarian australia - and a bloody good one well worth preserving... most countries couldn't believe djokovic was 'detained' with the common visa breachers, in 'maggot infested rooms' (yeh sure whatever...) ..so much so the serbian prime minister pleaded for him to be moved... he wasn't... he was treated just the same as other visa breachers... not many places in the world that would happen... yay australia!!
"...we are big AO fans have never liked him, most don’t,"
so you want to get rid of him because you don't like him? ....not very sporting of you... not very egalitarian... not very anything, except miserable...
"... the no vax push from the plebs was just to get rid of him cause most don’t like him anyway and they had to get to get jabbed and he hasn’t."
is that fair enough?
...they had to get vaccinated - possibly reluctantly - so so should he? ...sounds fair to me...
"...1000’s of Aussie’s that didn’t want to get jabbed have lost their jobs and incomes, why should he be allowed to come here and keep his.""
well yes, I totally agree
do you? ...it's not very clear....
once again, I don't give a shit if you reply or not.. but this got my attention...
"...don’t even want to waste money on a holiday with all the rules and nappy wearing."
I agree re. the rules, but it puzzles me beyond belief the problem some people have with face masks... to me, they're one of the few things that make perfect sense, especially whilst travelling...
from my observations, it's quite often a weird personality disorder that makes people averse to wearing masks. that vid at the toowoomba pub showed it quite well, as some weirdo went into some massive spiel about CO2 levels, and a heap of other ridiculous hair splitting ramblings, to justify their anti mask position....
and from what I can gather, its often just weird ocd type people, who cannot handle something on their face, making up all sorts of bullshit to justify their weirdness
or dudes on some weird christian bent... there's a lot of that... with the well worn lines getting around...
same with vaccinations, I often wonder how many people who are anti the vaccine are just people scared of needles, cooking up all sorts of reasons not to go there
my old man was scared of needles, so I get it, but it's totally irrational, be much better if people were just honest about their positions...
gawd knows there's enough bullshit flying around....
not having a go robo, just observations
burleigh wrote:https://www.instagram.com/primodofficial/p/CY3g2IFBVmN/?utm_medium=copy_...
Har har....har
What a hot take.
Wow, my mind is blown.
Actually, is that your personal account burleigh? The quality of content there seems like the sort of shit you'd dream up.
Anyway.....imagine what it would be like to watch idiots claiming they eat well, are fit and healthy, as such trust their own immune system with chlamydia.
And then some of them organising chlamydia parties....
Hong Kong to kill 2,000 animals after hamsters get COVID-19. https://abcnews.go.com/Health/wireStory/hong-kong-arrests-air-crew-break...
Bump: Was getting a bit low on the front page.
indo-dreaming wrote:Bump: Was getting a bit low on the front page.
Yeah, hopefully everyone's scheduled in an hour or so to post misleading opinion pieces about a subject they have no experience or capabilities in.
From my surf chats the last couple of days its clear Covid has ripped through the Goldy. Most people (jabbed or not) seemed to have 2 - 3 days, then a few days of recovery.
The biggest issue is people believe the vaccine did not work and will not be lining back up for their third jab. Mostly people 25 - 35 age bracket.
There is going to be a real issue with the government meeting their jab targets, especially now SO many people have had covid.
The governments promise of minimising transmission is going to come back and bite them.
We all know the government has bought enough jabs to vaccinate to population 6 times over, so brace yourselves for the PUSH to get boostered.
Mandating boosters is going to cause a huge divide, I do believe it’s coming, I also believe the fight back will be large
How things have changed , hope Indonesia doesn’t ban us . https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/18/covid-19-cdc-travel-warnin...
burleigh wrote:From my surf chats the last couple of days its clear Covid has ripped through the Goldy. Most people (jabbed or not) seemed to have 2 - 3 days, then a few days of recovery.
The biggest issue is people believe the vaccine did not work and will not be lining back up for their third jab. Mostly people 25 - 35 age bracket.
There is going to be a real issue with the government meeting their jab targets, especially now SO many people have had covid.
The governments promise of minimising transmission is going to come back and bite them.
We all know the government has bought enough jabs to vaccinate to population 6 times over, so brace yourselves for the PUSH to get boostered.
Already started, booster approved for kids and 4th for adults with immune issues.
I know it's still early but it looks like Aust & USA have peaked, if follow similar patterns to UK & South Africa.
Same with USA
UK
South Africa
Yep, looks like we have peaked.
blindboy wrote:lostdoggy, technically it will remain a pandemic. The use of epidemic as discussed below, is to distinguish it from endemic. What is being suggested is that we will continue to have epidemics of various sizes for the forseeable future. This means that we have to get back to effective ttq as soon as possible to limit their size and frequency.
"Denial of the science of epidemiology is widespread, even among “experts”. We are told repeatedly that SARS-CoV-2 will become “endemic”. But it will never be endemic because it is an epidemic disease and always will be. The key difference is spread. As an epidemic disease, SARS-CoV-2 will always find the unvaccinated, undervaccinated or people with waning immunity and spread rapidly in those groups. Typically, true epidemic infections are spread from person to person, the worst being airborne transmission, and display a waxing and waning pattern such as we have already seen with multiple waves of SARS-CoV-2. Cases rise rapidly over days or weeks, as we have seen with Alpha, Delta and Omicron. No truly endemic disease – malaria, for example – does this."
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/opinion/topic/2022/01/15/why-covid-1...
BB , do you still believe this view given that more and more ‘ experts ‘ are saying it will become endemic ? I’m in two minds now only because Lord Fauci has said it will become endemic. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2022/01/18/1073802...
fingers crossed we keep heading in the right direction.
The 'peak' is probably just due to our testing capacity being maxed out weeks ago, and significant relaxation of contact tracing/testing requirements.
Anyone got a hospitalisation chart?
Craig wrote:Yep, looks like we have peaked.
I'd be careful comparing delta graphs to Omicron. Brad #CovidHazzard stated "everyone will get omicron". With that in mind, AND kids soon to go back to school, I expect a plateau instead of a peak. In fact, I expect a massive tableland, with cases extremely high for weeks
supa, I don't have a view on that. I quoted one expert opinion....others disagree so I will leave it to them to sort out the semantics. I don't think there is any fundamental difference of opinion about how it is likely to develop. There seems general agreement that it will remain in circulation and cause spikes in infection opportunistically. That said, the reality is we really don't know where things will go from here. Locally, schools will open up soon but seem poorly prepared. Then we have winter to deal with.
I came across this research on animal reservoirs. I have wondered for a while now, since it had so many new mutations, if Omicron had passed through another species before jumping back into humans. I haven't seen it discussed anywhere but it seems possible.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34460063/
blindboy wrote:supa, I don't have a view on that. I quoted one expert opinion....others disagree so I will leave it to them to sort out the semantics. I don't think there is any fundamental difference of opinion about how it is likely to develop. There seems general agreement that it will remain in circulation and cause spikes in infection opportunistically. That said, the reality is we really don't know where things will go from here. Locally, schools will open up soon but seem poorly prepared. Then we have winter to deal with.
I came across this research on animal reservoirs. I have wondered for a while now, since it had so many new mutations, if Omicron had passed through another species before jumping back into humans. I haven't seen it discussed anywhere but it seems possible.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34460063/
Didn’t indo put up some links in regards to that ? Mice wasn’t it ? I must’ve misinterpreted when you posted “ blindboy wrote:
lostdoggy, technically it will remain a pandemic. “
I hope it gets worse.
I'm not tracking it super closely but Gerg (stats guru) has nailed every part of this pandemic and called it a couple of weeks ago..
From Dec 31 (read full conversation)..
Big question is, where is the peak? I say that's unknowable, but there still seem to be a few modellers around prepared to pretend. One thing *is* clear. The peak cannot be weeks away; there aren't enough people left to infect...
— Glen (@Gergyl) December 31, 2021
And an update
NSW, 14 January 2022: 63,018 total new cases, 29 new deaths; RATs still exceeding PCRs by a large margin. (Compare Victoria, which has been counting RATs for longer – there RATs < PCRs.)
— Glen (@Gergyl) January 14, 2022
Not much doubt now that the NSW epidemic is rolling over, despite the measurement fiasco: pic.twitter.com/rFI8IYCZWg
Anyone know what the reinfecting rate is? Or is a 2nd infection lesser than the 1st?
If omicron peaks does Delta then get a chance to make a bit of a comeback?
Craig wrote:Yep, looks like we have peaked.
Except for WA, they’ve chosen to tackle theirs late Autumn / Winter......
shoredump wrote:Craig wrote:Yep, looks like we have peaked.
Except for WA, they’ve chosen to tackle theirs late Autumn / Winter......
genius....
Ha!
Well, the next Greek letter is "pi" (assuming it isnt skipped).
I can see the headlines already.
Stok wrote:The 'peak' is probably just due to our testing capacity being maxed out weeks ago, and significant relaxation of contact tracing/testing requirements.
Anyone got a hospitalisation chart?
Fair point, but the Aust time frame is inline with all the other countries too.
Hospitalisations lag a little behind cases so you might not see any change yet in hospitalisations.
Supafreak wrote:blindboy wrote:supa, I don't have a view on that. I quoted one expert opinion....others disagree so I will leave it to them to sort out the semantics. I don't think there is any fundamental difference of opinion about how it is likely to develop. There seems general agreement that it will remain in circulation and cause spikes in infection opportunistically. That said, the reality is we really don't know where things will go from here. Locally, schools will open up soon but seem poorly prepared. Then we have winter to deal with.
I came across this research on animal reservoirs. I have wondered for a while now, since it had so many new mutations, if Omicron had passed through another species before jumping back into humans. I haven't seen it discussed anywhere but it seems possible.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34460063/Didn’t indo put up some links in regards to that ? Mice wasn’t it ? I must’ve misinterpreted when you posted “ blindboy wrote:
lostdoggy, technically it will remain a pandemic. “
Yes peer reviewed studies have pointed towards Omicron developing in mice from Covid, although i do think the study might have been Chinese.
Australian case fatality rate is look good. Hard to argue vaccines are not working for us.
Roadkill wrote:Australian case fatality rate is look good. Hard to argue vaccines are not working for us.
You'd think that would be the case, but it won't stop the morons arguing very hard against the bleeding obvious. Cue blowin, burleigh, robo in 3-2-1...
Roadkill wrote:Australian case fatality rate is look good. Hard to argue vaccines are not working for us.
Ahhh nothing like using a new milder variant to celebrate the vaccine effectiveness.
Part of the vaccine working would be to stop transmission like you were told right?
NSW hospitalisation doubling rate out to 13 days ish was around 6 ish start of Jan, still rising but rate appears to be slowing, hopefully
burleigh wrote:Roadkill wrote:Australian case fatality rate is look good. Hard to argue vaccines are not working for us.
Ahhh nothing like using a new milder variant to celebrate the vaccine effectiveness.
Part of the vaccine working would be to stop transmission like you were told right?
And there it is. Burleigh is off the mark with an outside edge to the third man boundary.
FFS burleigh you are genuinely thick. It's pretty easy to work out the vaccine is effective by comparing A. similar countries with different vaccination rates or B. vax vs unvaxxed stats. You're problem is, you're too stupid to even think of that.
Roadkill wrote:Australian case fatality rate is look good. Hard to argue vaccines are not working for us.
I like your optimism Roadkill, but we all know that even if these vaccines were 100% effective, there'd be clowns lining up to tell you all about Ivermectin or some other weird shit they read off Instagram.
Stok wrote:Roadkill wrote:Australian case fatality rate is look good. Hard to argue vaccines are not working for us.
I like your optimism Roadkill, but we all know that even if these vaccines were 100% effective, there'd be clowns lining up to tell you all about Ivermectin or some other weird shit they read off Instagram.
....In the time it took for me to write that lol....
@stok best you leave the ivermectin to Professor Borody and immunologist Professor Clancy who know a bit more than you . https://quadrant.org.au/magazine/2021/12/we-cant-vaccinate-this-pandemic...
Supafreak wrote:@stok best you leave the ivermectin to Professor Borody and immunologist Professor Clancy who know a bit more than you . https://quadrant.org.au/magazine/2021/12/we-cant-vaccinate-this-pandemic...
Supafreak, you really are a weird unit. You have a finely tuned antenna when it comes to spotting government corruption, but your commentary on Ivermectin is just whacked. You put all your faith in just two dubious scientists and ignore all the others that say Ivermectin isn't an effective treatment for covid.
Surely, SURELY, with hospital systems crumbling, governments would happily grab a cheap and readily available drug if it was effective. Let us know exactly why governments around the world have thoroughly rejected Ivermectin. I'm pretty sure it's not because they enjoy watching people die and like HCPs working 18 hour shifts 7 days a week.
Vic Local wrote:Supafreak wrote:@stok best you leave the ivermectin to Professor Borody and immunologist Professor Clancy who know a bit more than you . https://quadrant.org.au/magazine/2021/12/we-cant-vaccinate-this-pandemic...
Supafreak, you really are a weird unit. You have a finely tuned antenna when it comes to spotting government corruption, but your commentary on Ivermectin is just whacked. You put all your faith in just two dubious scientists and ignore all the others that say Ivermectin isn't an effective treatment for covid.
Surely, SURELY, with hospital systems crumbling, governments would happily grab a cheap and readily available drug if it was effective. Let us know exactly why governments around the world have thoroughly rejected Ivermectin. I'm pretty sure it's not because they enjoy watching people die and like HCPs working 18 hour shifts 7 days a week.
Two dubious scientists , really dr dick ? This shows you hav e NFI and dr dick I don’t answer your questions as you have never been able to answer mine . Hows your predictions going so far dr dick ?
"Two dubious scientists , really dr dick ? This shows you hav e NFI and dr dick I don’t answer your questions as you have never been able to answer mine . Hows your predictions going so far dr dick ?"
lost count of how many time he's been asked why the WHO distributed ivermectin in india...
just goes quiet...
again...
maybe stok can help...
@dr dick , governments around the world haven’t thoroughly rejected ivermectin as you falsely claim , again you have NFI . It’s prescribed by doctors legally in many countries but you fail to admit this . Yet you call others dumb , unbelievable.
Vic Local wrote:burleigh wrote:Roadkill wrote:Australian case fatality rate is look good. Hard to argue vaccines are not working for us.
Ahhh nothing like using a new milder variant to celebrate the vaccine effectiveness.
Part of the vaccine working would be to stop transmission like you were told right?
And there it is. Burleigh is off the mark with an outside edge to the third man boundary.
FFS burleigh you are genuinely thick. It's pretty easy to work out the vaccine is effective by comparing A. similar countries with different vaccination rates or B. vax vs unvaxxed stats. You're problem is, you're too stupid to even think of that.
Please enlighten me Vic,
Show me these “similar” countries data from the last month. Knowing you Vic you’ll share a link from 6 months ago.
You guys have gone awfully quiet about getting vaccinated to protect the community.
You know, the sales pitch that got most people vaccinated.
I can’t wait to see the triple vax stats of people not getting it.
Look, I don't know why India uses Ivermectin.
But, given we're a developed country with essentially world class levels of medical knowledge and capabilities, I wouldn't necessarily be looking at what India's doing as some sort of way forward (no offence to India).
Also, Australia is currently ranked 11th in terms of government corruption globally, whereas India is 86th.
https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2020/table
So that pretty much sums up my train if thought.
I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..
There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia