COVID-19 Health System Overload Forecaster

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Craig started the topic in Wednesday, 18 Mar 2020 at 7:44pm

I've created a spreadsheet forecast which I'll update as we go..

There's also a website with live running data.. https://sites.google.com/view/stayhomeaustralia

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gragagan Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 12:00am

Leaving out all of the conspiracy stuff,
The NT authorities have basically two choices: 1/ Lockdown, quarantine etc. or 2/ Don't lockdown, no quarantine etc.
If they choose option 2, and covid spreads through these communities and on to the rest of the state, a whole lot of people may end up dead. Which at a guess the NT gov would try to avoid.
The RAAF Tindal base is just down the road, so it would be logical to get them to help with transport. It's also one of the roles of the defence force, to assist in emergencies

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bluediamond Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 12:04am

Andy M, no time to get personal. I had these messages sent to me. I didn't go looking for it. I feel damned if i do and damned if i don't share the information. I'm only interested in protecting and helping those who can't help themselves. Keep the personal out of this one mate. I've made it clear all along i'm only responding to what came to me tonight. If you come across any other information, please share it here mate.

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bluediamond Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 12:06am

btw funny how this highly infectious disease, that i know nobody, at all who has ever had it, is wreaking havoc in bumfuck NT. The mind boggles.

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sypkan Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 12:10am

yeh, really can't win with this one gland...

seem brutal and get on top of it... or be scared to act and wind with full scale disaster...

anyway, Im sure the worst of the bullshit is bullshit...

https://afipn.com.au/first-nations-locked-down/?fbclid=IwAR349S8uiyUTCjG...

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Vic Local Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 6:00am
bluediamond wrote:

btw funny how this highly infectious disease, that i know nobody, at all who has ever had it, is wreaking havoc in bumfuck NT. The mind boggles.

Seriously, What planet have you been living on for the last two year BD? Did you not see the deaths and hospital systems collapsing in Northern Italy, then Spain, then NY, then the rest of the USA, Europe, Central America and Brazil. Did you miss the Delta wave in India and now Europe again?
What exactly would convince you that Delta is a highly infectious virus?

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etarip Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 6:35am

Jeez there’s some alarmist piffle on this page.

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seeds Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 6:52am
Vic Local's picture
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Vic Local Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 7:15am
seeds wrote:

BD this might help
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-24/nt-health-worker-positive-covid-c...

Seeds, It might help. It should help, but it probably won't help.
If BD has gone too far down the rabbit hole he needs professional help. And I don't say that lightly.

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etarip Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 7:18am

From that article:
"To see so much bullshit being shared around, especially by people that have no love for Indigenous people suddenly [jumping] on the 'genocide' bandwagon when it suits them is f***ed," Mr Ellis wrote in a Twitter thread.

- and that’s the issue with this misinfo campaign, maligning and mischaracterizing the efforts and actions of the health workers and those supporting them.

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Patrick Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 7:43am

Classic. Last night, to dispel rumours, I posted on here updates about what the army is doing in NT. 90 minutes later people are in a state of alert and spreading rumours again instead of reading the previous page.
It's easier to react emotionally than calmly investigate.
No womder it's a murky soup of info on the net.

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gsco Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 7:52am

Just sharing some facts.

covid cases: I know of a decent number of people who've had or currently have covid.

A very anti-vax mate of mine in Europe had it a few weeks ago and recovered, but said it was the worst cold/flu he's ever had. He's a good surfer, super fit and strong person, bout 40yrs old, etc.

My entire brother's family of 6 in the US currently all have it, and he said as does like half his kids' schoolmates. Bro's family is all vaccinated and said covid hasn't been that bad for them.

A few (not sure exactly how many) of my Chinese wife's extended family in China have had it. All were vaccinated with a Chinese vaccine and all recovered.

vax symptoms: Also for the record, pretty well everyone I know have been vaccinated, and I know no-one who had any adverse reactions apart from minor flu-like symptoms.

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indo-dreaming Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 8:12am
bluediamond wrote:

btw funny how this highly infectious disease, that i know nobody, at all who has ever had it, is wreaking havoc in bumfuck NT. The mind boggles.

Only takes one person to infect a community, and these communities often have over crowding housing issues and very low vaccination rates so often more vulnerable.

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indo-dreaming Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 8:28am

BTW. a fully vaccinated friend in Germany got Covid a few weeks back, only in his 30s very fit and healthy, but seems like he still got knocked around a bit like bad case of the flue, said his full vax GF & best mate same.

Bit depressing, by the time winter comes around in Aus our vaccinations will possibly be less effective by then unless have booster.

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san Guine Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 8:37am

"Merely asserting a right to freedom of speech doesn’t make it true.”

https://pursuit.unimelb.edu.au/podcasts/what-does-our-constitution-say-a...

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Fliplid Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 8:47am

@bluediamond : "btw funny how this highly infectious disease, that i know nobody, at all who has ever had it, is wreaking havoc in bumfuck NT. The mind boggles."

About to run through a few indigenous communities bluediamond.

Considering those with comorbidities are more adversely affected than healthy people and the populations in these communities have high levels of diabetes, cardio vascular disease, etc I guess the authorities are trying to seperate people with covid from those that don't have it.

Sounds dramatic to have the military involved but logistically it is the best option regarding manpower, transport and coordination

The alternative would be to leave the infected people in the communities to self isolate, which is hard to do, and as we have seen around the country this is prone to be ineffective at times.

What would be the outcome if they were left in place? Well some say many deaths, others say nothing to worry about as covid is a hoax.

Personally I'd take the punt and seperate them from community for 2 weeks where they are closer to medical care if needed.

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Patrick0710 Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 9:15am

"More than 80 backpackers at a Byron Bay hostel on the NSW north coast have been placed into a week-long lockdown after a guest tested positive to COVID-19.

"Ballina MP Tamara Smith posted on Facebook on Wednesday night about the situation at the Aquarius Backpackers. “I’m closely monitoring a situation in Byron Bay this evening where a positive COVID-19 case and 84 close contacts have been identified at Aquarius Backpackers in Byron Bay,” she said.

"NSW Health has locked down the hostel for seven days, impacting 84 guests.

"NSW Police have placed a 24-hour guard on the hostel to ensure compliance."

That bloody PSYCHOPATH Andrews locking up INNOCENT people again! POLICE STATE!!!

Oh, wait ...

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AndyM Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 10:06am
bluediamond wrote:

Andy M, no time to get personal. I had these messages sent to me. I didn't go looking for it. I feel damned if i do and damned if i don't share the information. I'm only interested in protecting and helping those who can't help themselves. Keep the personal out of this one mate. I've made it clear all along i'm only responding to what came to me tonight. If you come across any other information, please share it here mate.

BD, your response was cause for concern.

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freeride76 Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 10:05am

Bet there's a baby boom 9 months from now from that Hostel.

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AndyM Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 10:12am

Wild and frenzied fingering around the clock.

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bluediamond Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 10:26am

A few things. Firstly, the 'alarmist' reaction was purely from having been sent a video from an indigenous community of very scared people calling for help. What sort of person would i be to not at least ask if anyone knows more. When it comes to the ABC, i've already discussed them previously in this thread and the misinformation they print, so i'll never take what they say as gospel again.
Some other things. Maybe it's because i'm in WA, and we're in a false sense of security here, or maybe it's a different perspective to when you are right in the middle of it like you crew over there. I'm losing friends from my questioning. And that sucks. A very good friend of mine is a doctor in the Emergency Department of a major Sydney hospital. She absolutely ripped into me and my friends on FB regarding my concerns about vaccines. Of note...She didn't actually address my questions, but she was very passionate about the reality of covid. She's hot as too so to see our friendship soured by that sucked. Also, i work in hospitality over here, and come December 31 i most likely won't have a job. Not just because of my own concerns, but every single person in the place i work is in the same boat. The business simply won't be allowed to run anymore. So there's more loss.
I'm now considered as somewhat of an outcast to my family for not 'doing the right thing'. So yeah, i have a good perspective of the reality of what's going on.
My fundamental philosophy though is to not let evil and tyranny take away our freedoms. That's what i'm seeing. When tobacco is legal, and alcohol, and they kill so many, it's obvous that this isn't about health. Otherwise, why would governments just allow people to kill themselves and clog up hospitals? They DONT want us dying do they?? Also there are proven alternative solutions out there that have been gone over and over on here, that have been banned. There are obvious concerns about the safety of the vaccines based on real life data and there is doubt over the effacacy of it.
So if i need professional help, fair enough, but i'm aware of the situation i'm putting myself in, but still willing to do it because i believe things aren't right.
You VicLocal, could possibly consider your own words, considering the amount of time you're on here and the amount of vitriol and anger you spew forth. That to me, is in need of serious professional help.
Anyway, i'll bow out of this convo. Thats my thoughts, there's nothing more to add to it.

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AndyM Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 10:38am

Maybe having a more in-depth chat with your doctor friend would be beneficial.
But you'd have to go in with an open mind, which might be difficult at this stage of the game.
The fact that you are losing friends and becoming an outcast should be a wake up call.

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bluediamond Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 10:50am

Consider this your first therapy sesh, if you're willing VicLocal. It's an hour...but it's free!!
You too Andy M!!

&t=512s

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AndyM Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 10:58am

Therapy for what?
All this stuff is clearly negatively impacting on your life, I don't know why you continue to treat it as a jolly lark.

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bluediamond Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 10:56am

You could probably cut straight to the 13min mark VL. Ok over and out.

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AndyM Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 10:59am

You consider yourself one of those who are going to "wake the people up"?

Ego and hubris.

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Johknee Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 11:00am
bluediamond wrote:

She's hot as too so to see our friendship soured by that sucked......

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Stok Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 11:02am

This NT lockdown is just fuel on the misinformation fire. They're having a field day. I regularly check the socials of a few know misinformation spreaders and it's like a script.

Very interesting/concerning how well targeted the content they share is. The creators of this stuff have played the freedom card, the segregation card and now the first peoples/stolen generation card. Highly inappropriate and downright offensive.

Dear freedom fighters, try to wrap your heads around how bad it would be if covid spread in remote communities. Whilst you privileged f wits complain, with easy access to vaccines and hospitals, covid would simply rip through. How would that look? How would the gov and people of Australia look? White folk in the cities are fine but remote communities just left to suffer?

Yeah...just keep sharing the misinformation, great idea, you're scared of the vax, so keep believing it's all a big plan. Idiots....

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bluediamond Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 11:17am

ahh...always the name calling from these pro covid types. Never from those opposed to it. Why the harsh name calling all the time? Something fundamentally psychologically wrong there.

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fitzroy-21 Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 11:25am

The situation in the NT is that it has got into a couple of communities in and around Katherine. Some further afield (Robinson River). They have locked a few of the communities down to stop the spread. Main problem being, community members move around regularly and cover big distances to visit family, friends etc. So extra police and defence have been bought in as a preventative measure.
Two nights ago, a local lady and her friend from Binjari decided to evade authorities and managed to get a taxi to Katherine area, walk around visiting friends etc. Now they are trying to trace their movements and contain the contacts.
Due to the ability of regular "walkabout" throughout the NT, authorities and communities are very concerned, and rightfully so, as this has a high potential of getting out of control, particularly to all the outstations and communities, the locals are genuinely worried.

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Roadkill Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 11:26am
Stok wrote:

This NT lockdown is just fuel on the misinformation fire. They're having a field day. I regularly check the socials of a few know misinformation spreaders and it's like a script.

Very interesting/concerning how well targeted the content they share is. The creators of this stuff have played the freedom card, the segregation card and now the first peoples/stolen generation card. Highly inappropriate and downright offensive.

Dear freedom fighters, try to wrap your heads around how bad it would be if covid spread in remote communities. Whilst you privileged f wits complain, with easy access to vaccines and hospitals, covid would simply rip through. How would that look? How would the gov and people of Australia look? White folk in the cities are fine but remote communities just left to suffer?

Yeah...just keep sharing the misinformation, great idea, you're scared of the vax, so keep believing it's all a big plan. Idiots....

"Dear freedom fighters, try to wrap your heads around how bad it would be if covid spread in remote communities"

They don't care...most can't think outside their immediate bubble. This is why we vaccinate to protect the vulnerable but selfish pricks make it about themselves.

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AndyM Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 11:42am
bluediamond wrote:

ahh...always the name calling from these pro covid types. Never from those opposed to it. Why the harsh name calling all the time? Something fundamentally psychologically wrong there.

Poor effort to play the victim card.

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goofyfoot Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 11:44am
bluediamond wrote:

ahh...always the name calling from these pro covid types. Never from those opposed to it. Why the harsh name calling all the time? Something fundamentally psychologically wrong there.

“Pro covid” eh? man you’re a twisted unit.
Pretty sure everyone is “anti covid” bd, but you keep going on doing what you do best.
Might grab the popcorn and stand back and watch this one.

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burleigh Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 11:51am

Some graphs from Victoria. Not really what you would expect from a successful vaccine if you ask me.

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Roadkill Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 12:05pm
bluediamond wrote:

ahh...always the name calling from these pro covid types. Never from those opposed to it. Why the harsh name calling all the time? Something fundamentally psychologically wrong there.

WTF..you never read the anti vaxers in here ranting and name calling? That's convenient of you to ignore.

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Roadkill Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 12:07pm
burleigh wrote:

Some graphs from Victoria. Not really what you would expect from a successful vaccine if you ask me.
https://twitter.com/CaseyBriggs/status/1463629577926766599?ref_src=twsrc...

Did you bother to fact check if the stats were vaxxed or unvaxxed?
Off course you didn't.

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Fliplid Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 12:18pm

@ burleigh : "Some graphs from Victoria. Not really what you would expect from a successful vaccine if you ask me."

A closer look at the graphs shows a steady decrease in infections and hospitalisations from mid October then a bit of a spike in numbers after the protests. Seems fairly evident that the vaccine is working.

Just guessing that the spike from the protests would be of unvaccinated people, considering their opposition to the vaccine.

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Stok Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 12:25pm
burleigh wrote:

Some graphs from Victoria. Not really what you would expect from a successful vaccine if you ask me.
https://twitter.com/CaseyBriggs/status/1463629577926766599?ref_src=twsrc...

Thankfully, no one's asking you.
But anyway, all but the most idiotic of people now haven't put 2 & 2 together when it comes to deaths lagging case numbers. Also, we have now completely opened up, and are having large gatherings and house visits. Cases will go up, probably deaths too.

It's funny, rewind back a few weeks and the rhetoric was about how we'll be locked down for ever. Now we've opened up and there's something new to complain about - who would've thought?

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Supafreak Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 12:56pm

What I’m not understanding is if everytime there’s a positive case , what’s going to be the response ? Do all known contacts immediately get locked down with police enforcing those involved remain in house, hotel, caravan park etc etc . Is this what learning to live with covid involves ? Not saying if you test positive you should be free to roam about, just that this Byron episode won’t be the last . When Qld fully opens up and cases increase does everyone just go to the quarantine camps ? https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-11-24/byron-bay-backpackers-in-lockdown...

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Patrick Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 1:00pm

"This is a nuanced decision" (whether to have your young child vaccinated or not).
.


.

It appears in other countries that 12 year olds are given the same dose as an adult. Is that also true in Australia?

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blindboy Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 1:03pm

supa Byron has a low vaccination rate so that is probably a factor. In other areas there will probably be fewer restrictions.

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Blowin Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 1:14pm
blindboy wrote:

supa Byron has a low vaccination rate so that is probably a factor. In other areas there will probably be fewer restrictions.

Ironically enough, Byron would have far lower levels of obesity amongst its population than most other areas.. Considering that obesity is a greater determinate of severe covid than basically anything besides extreme old age, it’ll be interesting to see how much the community is impacted by the virus. Also quite a young average population you’d think.

Stay healthy people of Byron!

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Supafreak Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 1:21pm
blindboy wrote:

supa Byron has a low vaccination rate so that is probably a factor. In other areas there will probably be fewer restrictions.

The article didn’t mention if the female from Victoria was vaccinated , minor but important detail . It also said she was a guest but other guests say she was staff and had probably been in every room.

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burleigh Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 1:51pm
Roadkill wrote:
burleigh wrote:

Some graphs from Victoria. Not really what you would expect from a successful vaccine if you ask me.
https://twitter.com/CaseyBriggs/status/1463629577926766599?ref_src=twsrc...

Did you bother to fact check if the stats were vaxxed or unvaxxed?
Off course you didn't.

Seems as though your third vaccine has affected your brain. Victoria dont release those stats Roadkill, which is an answer in itself.

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burleigh Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 1:54pm
Fliplid wrote:

@ burleigh : "Some graphs from Victoria. Not really what you would expect from a successful vaccine if you ask me."

A closer look at the graphs shows a steady decrease in infections and hospitalisations from mid October then a bit of a spike in numbers after the protests. Seems fairly evident that the vaccine is working.

Just guessing that the spike from the protests would be of unvaccinated people, considering their opposition to the vaccine.

Of course, blame the protests. Who do you watch in the morning? Koshie or Stephanovic?

Look closely at ICU patients compared to cases.

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bluediamond Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 1:55pm

Enjoy your popcorn Goofyfoot. I just had a great surf :-P

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Patrick0710 Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 2:07pm

The Australian Defence Force has rejected “wild” social media claims that it’s forcibly vaccinating Indigenous Northern Territorians against Covid-19.

The territory detected one new case overnight, bringing the outbreak to 52 cases after a teenager from Binjari Aboriginal community tested positive.

“This shows us the hard lockdown is working, and caring for close contacts in quarantine is working,” chief minister Michael Gunner said on Thursday.

It comes as the ADF launches a public relations blitz following colourful and false Facebook posts by various groups and individuals about the military’s involvement in the Top End’s pandemic response.

Some of the posts allege infected Aboriginal people are being forcibly transferred to quarantine facilities while likening them to the stolen generation.

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burleigh Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 2:08pm

For all you MSM lovers out there, it appears that QLD governemnt has revoked majority of its covid plan after the 17th December. Why is this not covered ONCE?

Scroll down the link to see

https://www.covid19.qld.gov.au/government-actions/covid-safe-checklist-f...

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dawnperiscope Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 2:12pm

Byron is 80% vaccinated, hardly low. They've been an easy target from the beginning

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AndyM Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 2:13pm
bluediamond wrote:

Enjoy your popcorn Goofyfoot. I just had a great surf :-P

Don’t forget to work on your critical thinking as well as your surfing BD.

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burleigh Thursday, 25 Nov 2021 at 2:14pm
dawnperiscope wrote:

Byron is 80% vaccinated, hardly low. They've been an easy target from the beginning

imagine getting vaccinated for your freedoms then being locked inside a hostel from 1 positive case.
I guess its better than being taken away by the army to a covid camp though.