House prices
I see no icebergs. Except maybe for a small cohort of GJ Gardeners on the shit end of shitsurbia.
Any of those quarterly losses in the domain market irrelevant when viewed in the annual rise context especially for houses.
And the domain article states it.
“ What we’ll enter into now is a fairly flat sort of market for the next couple of years that looks more like the 2018/2019 marke”
Because 2018/19 was so affordable. Eye roll.
And
“ “If you really think the market is going to drop those huge amounts, it won’t. People just don’t sell and you get a Mexican stand-off.”
That’s my view. I’m at still no crash whatsoever. Not unless the parties act on policy and they won’t. Cowards.
Distracted wrote:Curious to see how much down turn will eventuate in current high demand areas such as the NSW North Coast.
Prices being quoted last week still seem to be going up.
Yep, still selling for eye rolling prices as of this weekend.
No slowdown here.
My prediction is a flattening in the growth curve, but no correction.
As said, there is so much fat on the bone, it would take a huge correction to even get into correction territory.
Yep that was just falling growth rates. Ie rate of change of price/derivative
High plateau remains, if we're predicting I'm going to throw a matchstick in and predict 10% falls in Syd/Melb as they lead the cycle, other cities have yet to have had their run. (AUD has retraced from 0.79 to 0.71 so almost that since 2020) Regional Vic hard to say, as so many buyers are relocating, could be immune. Driving around noticed a couple more properties listed on the glamour streets, still selling. Talking with young one that 800K block with views could represent value into the future, am I going mad?
"And the recent monthly data suggests we are still not at the worst point of the crisis. We were thinking at least regional Australia may have started to have some relief as people return back to the cities. But that has not happened as yet."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-12/brt-house-prices-fall-rent-crisis...
I haven't read the whole thread as it's too long but is this caused by greedy real estate agents?
Am I reading that right?
Rental vacancy rate in Hobart is 0.3%??
Fuck me.
AndyM wrote:Am I reading that right?
Rental vacancy rate in Hobart is 0.3%??
Fuck me.
Sure sounds like you’ll have to fuck someone to get a rental in Tassie.
I'd just like to thank the landlords out there that aren't squeezing their tenants for all it's worth. I'm lucky enough to have one of them so far (touch wood) and I know a few friends who also seem to have fair landlords.
Sadly though , It's not the case for the majority around here ,,but many are paying the big increases because there is nowhere else to go .
velocityjohnno wrote:"And the recent monthly data suggests we are still not at the worst point of the crisis. We were thinking at least regional Australia may have started to have some relief as people return back to the cities. But that has not happened as yet."
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-04-12/brt-house-prices-fall-rent-crisis...
The Melbourne suburb with the biggest drop in value was Cremorne, down 6.4 per cent. In Sydney the steepest decline was 5 per cent in Beaconsfield.
These figures above are for the quarter!! And interest rates haven’t even risen yet.
Writing is on the wall folks. It’s a coming!!
Can someone explain how there can be no rentals when there was no immigration last year and the tradies have never been busier building entire new suburbs while at the same time there are still massive unit complexes going up in the cities?
Is it too many people owning multiple houses?
Air bnb and Holiday rentals would explain the lack of permanent rentals available in the south west
campbell wrote:Air bnb and Holiday rentals would explain the lack of permanent rentals available in the south west
Same here ,but there has also been a substantial amount of investment rental properties that went under the hammer in the last 2 years ,and were sold to people who wanted to move in themselves.
udo wrote:https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-02/borrowers-home-loans-mortgage-str...
And in an ironic turn of events, it will probably hurt people who the government is trying to help the most - first home buyers over the last 2 years or so. In addition, election pitches look like adding even more fuel to the fire with further subsidies into an inflated market. As a basic rule of thumb, when the market booms you should tax it, not subside it (relevant to any industries). Remove taxes and subsidise when it's doing poorly and not moving. It appears that Australian politicians simply don't know how to stay dynamic and turn things on and off as required. When a rule is implemented, it is set in stone forever.
On another note, I've done a bit of research on the ideas I shared a few pages back. Here is an article that talks about something similar (although it runs into an issue as Singapore is used as an example. Nothing against Singapore but they're all comfortable living in small units, a compromise many Australians would never consider).
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-02-06/could-australia-learn-from-singap...
flollo wrote:As a basic rule of thumb, when the market booms you should tax it, not subside it (relevant to any industries). Remove taxes and subsidise when it's doing poorly and not moving. It appears that Australian politicians simply don't know how to stay dynamic and turn things on and off as required. When a rule is implemented, it is set in stone forever.
Or until another Tony Abbott comes along and weaponises the word 'tax'.
Spot on Stu...
Peta Credlin: "It wasn’t a carbon tax, as you know. It was many other things in nomenclature terms but we made it a carbon tax. We made it a fight about the hip pocket and not about the environment ..... that was brutal retail politics and it took Abbott about six months to cut through and, when he cut through, Gillard was gone".
Peta Credlin: "It wasn’t a carbon tax, as you know. It was many other things in nomenclature terms but we made it a carbon tax. We made it a fight about the hip pocket and not about the environment ...
— Katharine Murphy (@murpharoo) August 11, 2021
"In truth, we can’t really hope to make a dent in the housing affordability crisis without hard policy choices such as reforming tax concessions that have pushed up house prices. Labor put forward such measures in 2019. It isn’t this time."
https://theconversation.com/for-first-homebuyers-its-labors-help-to-buy-...
pathetic
Band-Aid solutions.
Gutless bullshit.
this one's a bit apocalyptic
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-02/borrowers-home-loans-mortgage-str...
looks like APRA are chosen scapegoat, not bad to be picked even before tomorrows interest rate meeting!
And they will finally look at lending standards, liar loans etc only in hindsight (41 to 55%!!!!), just like every other financial hiccup - the naked are revealed only when the tide turns and goes out. The shame is that study of history (bubbles beforehand) could have made sure it didn't happen in the first place.
velocityjohnno wrote:this one's a bit apocalyptic
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-02/borrowers-home-loans-mortgage-str...
looks like APRA are chosen scapegoat, not bad to be picked even before tomorrows interest rate meeting!
And they will finally look at lending standards, liar loans etc only in hindsight (41 to 55%!!!!), just like every other financial hiccup - the naked are revealed only when the tide turns and goes out. The shame is that study of history (bubbles beforehand) could have made sure it didn't happen in the first place.
The highlight for me:
'APRA data shows that of 1 million new home loans written over the past two years, about 280,000 Australians have borrowed six or more times their income and/or have loan-to-value ratios of more than 90 per cent.'
I don't know what to say anymore. Also, politicians are very keen to keep the fire burning through policies that hardly require any deposit in an inflated market. Hasn't anyone looked at the GFC in the US? Everyone was buying but when problems started they would just return the keys and piss off.
"I was just so swept up in being approved, that I was like, 'this is a dream come true. Just roll with it and keep going and think about the consequences later'. "
My fav from the GFC was the NINJA loan
No Income No Job or Assets
Moral Hazard. Seems we've got a bit here too
flollo wrote:Hasn't anyone looked at the GFC in the US? Everyone was buying but when problems started they would just return the keys and piss off.
Correct me if wrong anyone, but I think in US at that time is was non-recourse loans wheras Australia is recourse?
Edit: corrected, non recourse and recourse swapped - I think
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/08/nonrecourse-loan-vs-recourse...
So that explains a bit of the 'jingle mail'?
Dear lord, NINJA, haha. I forgot about that. Thank you for reminding me.
If houses were shares even a small 5-ish % drop would trigger thousands of margin calls, resulting in a wave of crap liquidity, probably triggering a recession before you wake up in the morning.
2 things have blown me away in this election campaign, the 2% deposit bit, and the TV ads from one party claiming they can keep home loan rates under 3%. If finance is sourced offshore, surely this is impossible?
Yeah the share margin agreements, agree. It would probably be up to each trader/investor how much if any of the margin they used. Like companies, can decide to gear aggressively, or conservatively or anywhere in between.
I readily recall when the regulators started to do their job, a bit, and pulled up the banks on excessive loans. House prices stopped going up and some even went down a tiny bit. The real estate industry went off its nana. Reading that story it sounds about right, late 2018 to early 2019.
You would seriously wonder if the whole of our economy is geared towards making for an easy life for real estate agents.
RBA, ASIC and APRA have mostly been redundant. RBA came out to say that house prices weren’t their problem. We weren’t great before but we’ve had two decades of insanity on house prices.
US centric but a really good write up; especially the demographics bit - some of this will apply here, I'm just not up on Aussie demographics though. The references to Interest rates in the 80s is a good one. and house prices in the 70s (high inflation)
https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2022/05/02/in-defense-of-housing/
Worth subscribing (its free).
Cash rate increased by .25%
Seatbelts!
kaiser wrote:Cash rate increased by .25%
Seatbelts!
to...........0.35% OMG !!!!
Lets see what the banks do....0.25 or 0.35 ?
Relax, as per the expectation.
"it's just the gully"
Fake news.
Can’t possibly be true because the RBA said they wouldn’t raise until late 2024.
“ growth slows to a 12-month low”
Non-story.
Here is the statement in it's entirety directly from RBA website if anyone is interested.
US sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold.
flollo wrote:Dear lord, NINJA, haha. I forgot about that. Thank you for reminding me.
If houses were shares even a small 5-ish % drop would trigger thousands of margin calls, resulting in a wave of crap liquidity, probably triggering a recession before you wake up in the morning.
Bingo!!
AndyM wrote:“ growth slows to a 12-month low”
Non-story.
Yep, coming into winter is typically a low point anyway.
RBA saying a 2.5% cash rate is probable. I’m sure it’ll be fine! People will just cut back on smashed avo toast and sail through it.
DudeSweetDudeSweet wrote:RBA saying a 2.5% cash rate is probable. I’m sure it’ll be fine! People will just cut back on smashed avo toast and sail through it.
I can tell you that in Sydney there’s a Fcking lot of people with mortgages way above the median price shown above. Was talking to a guy in Syd yesterday who said his sister just bought a house 50km out of Syd for $2.4m!!! Mortgage is $2m!!! Do the math on their repayment increase!!!
Remember the recommendation ( and implementation ) to tighten lending standards from the Banking Royal Commission (the one Morrison voted against establishing 26 times) and how the federal government gave the green light for those same lending standards to be once again relaxed when’s house prices dipped? How’s that flip flopping by the federal govt, RBA and the banks working for them now? Wow, blame the over ambitious borrower during an election, never!!
CPI: 5%
Home Loan: 3%
FREE MONEY !
Shit, FED has gone up 0.5%. USD on fire
He did suggest no 0.75% future rises, and a massive ripping of faces off shorts ensued.
US inflation 8.6%
Fed funds target rate raised to 0.75% to 1%
They've got a little way to go to catch the inflation boogey man
Here's a bit of data:
- Reo up 43%
- Steel beams up 41%
- Structural timber up 39%
- Plywood up 29%
- Electrical cable up 27%
- Copper pipes up 25%
- Terracotta tiles up 21%
- Metal roofing up 20%
- Insulation up 14%
Overall building materials inflation (March yoy) - 15.4%
Fixed price contract with a 10% margin signed a year ago (there's way less BTW)? Will we see a wave of unfinished projects and defaults?
velocityjohnno wrote:He did suggest no 0.75% future rises, and a massive ripping of faces off shorts ensued.
US inflation 8.6%
Fed funds target rate raised to 0.75% to 1%
They've got a little way to go to catch the inflation boogey man
Recession before they catch up? Or no recession?
3 items "caused" inflation in AU:
Building costs, fuel and education.
I am not sure raising interest rates will deal with any of those as 1 and 2 are mostly supply side (I s'pose 1 will be dampened if demand is dropped but prices are set globally not locally). Number 3 was a raise in the tier levels - whatever that means, so thats a once off and effects "only" students.
So, maybe baby there is a transitory element if the supply side can be addressed (but that aint gonna happen quickly).
The US was just a bunch of short covering, and long selling (in the USD). Bull trap.
House prices - going to go up , down or sideways ?
Opinions and anecdotal stories if you could.
Cheers