Next Federal Election

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno started the topic in Monday, 22 Jan 2024 at 2:15pm

Might as well put this up in the politics subforum, to spare the front page. It's 18 months away or so, but here we go.

This is how Dutton wins:

https://www.afr.com/politics/enter-the-liberal-party-working-class-heroe...

newdog's picture
newdog's picture
newdog Saturday, 26 Apr 2025 at 6:08pm
Supafreak wrote:
sypkan wrote:

it's a good question...

https://x.com/JP__75/status/1914970021551608257

and it exposes who is really running this import driven ponzi scheme

and thus, australia...

anyone who thinks voting labor this election will fix anything is kidding themselves

vote labor liberal last!

So who would you like to see as the PM ? If everyone votes independents in , who then leads the country ? It’s ok to say put labor/liberal last but what’s the plan after that ? What policies are you attracted to that independents are putting forward ? I don’t expect an answer. Labor is going to get in with a majority and the Liberal party like the democrats in the US need to change direction and actually come up with some policies rather than just saying no to everything . https://x.com/strangerous10/status/1915187365444030578?s=46

How you going to vote from there? Pigeon :)

Fliplid's picture
Fliplid's picture
Fliplid Saturday, 26 Apr 2025 at 6:20pm

I wouldn't be surprised if Labor don't get back in Supafreak, plenty of people are believing everything Dutton is saying about it all being "Labors fault". The scare campaign they are running probably resonates with more people this time than the one they ran against Shorten, the irony being that if Shortens policies had gotten up you'd think we'd be, at the very least, in a better position regarding housing costs because there would be less competition in the market from investors. My guess is that not many would be thinking about that though. Admittedly my only exposure to the campaign is following links and discussion put up here and a bit on the ABC so hopefully I'm wrong.

gs-co wrote:

They still predominantly earn most of their income from net interest income (so from the net interest margin between “savings” vs “loans”),

It must help being the ones setting the valuations as well wouldn't it? Meaning the margins are worth more because the borrowings have increased, or have I got that wrong? I've often wondered if this is the way it works

sypkan's picture
sypkan's picture
sypkan Saturday, 26 Apr 2025 at 7:27pm

"On the second bit, dont get cocky this election is an easy win no government has lost after one term since the 1930's."

this is my biggest fear, labor win convincingly

and get cocky...

look what they've done this term... on a barely 30% voter approval rating!

ie. not reduce immigration after promising to pre-election

allow it to blow out 500k+

then promise to reduce it when they apparently 'realised' it was 500k+

ignore that for another 2 years...

now refuse to even talk about it

plus, blow out the public sector

biggest spending government since whitlam

entrenched a heap of 'middle class welfare' through handouts... ensuring debt and deficit for future generations...

(not to mention that being exactly what they accused howard of... ie. unnecessary, untargeted, structural spending, squandering of, and debt creation for future generations...)

after all that, we should all feel we're living in a guided age... no one I know is feeling that...

shit's a mess, per capita recession's off the charts, debt outa control, 'social cohesion' worst ever...

but labor lubbers 'll tell ya...

'all is sweet' and 'albo's alright'

sorry it's not... he ain't...

some baby boomer investor types are still smiling though, spending bigly...

but I personally don't know anyone who'll say things are better than 10 - 20 years ago

no one!

not one!

but albo's alright...

apparently

not bad...

sorry, not feeling it

at all...

gs-co's picture
gs-co's picture
gs-co Saturday, 26 Apr 2025 at 7:43pm
Fliplid wrote:

I wouldn't be surprised if Labor don't get back in Supafreak, plenty of people are believing everything Dutton is saying about it all being "Labors fault". The scare campaign they are running probably resonates with more people this time than the one they ran against Shorten, the irony being that if Shortens policies had gotten up you'd think we'd be, at the very least, in a better position regarding housing costs because there would be less competition in the market from investors. My guess is that not many would be thinking about that though. Admittedly my only exposure to the campaign is following links and discussion put up here and a bit on the ABC so hopefully I'm wrong.

gs-co wrote:

They still predominantly earn most of their income from net interest income (so from the net interest margin between “savings” vs “loans”),

It must help being the ones setting the valuations as well wouldn't it? Meaning the margins are worth more because the borrowings have increased, or have I got that wrong? I've often wondered if this is the way it works

If I understand you correctly, most Aus banks (still) use external property valuation services (seems that only NAB does it internally).

It’s not in a bank’s interest to overstate the value of a property it is lending against, since it needs an accurate and usually quite conservative assessment of what it could recover if things go belly up.

Also, if a bank overvalued a property then the loan-value ratio would be smaller, implying that the loan is safer than it really is and the bank could relax the interest rate a little, meaning the loan is less profitable.

Of course it’s the property market that determines the actual price the property trades at. I don’t think it’s a valid argument to say that bank valuations are on balance favourable and consequently cause property prices to be inflated, thus leading to larger loans and higher profits (if that’s what you’re saying): I don’t buy the property-price-bank-valuation spiral idea.

Banks tend to be very conservative in their valuations for loan safety and it tends to support the interest rate charged.

southernraw's picture
southernraw's picture
southernraw Saturday, 26 Apr 2025 at 7:44pm

Hi GSCO. Why was The Voice 'woke'?
Very interested in your answer good sir.

gs-co's picture
gs-co's picture
gs-co Saturday, 26 Apr 2025 at 7:46pm

lol didn’t we already spend a few months arguing about it…?

tearymasseuse's picture
tearymasseuse's picture
tearymasseuse Saturday, 26 Apr 2025 at 7:49pm

&pp=0gcJCdgAo7VqN5tD

basesix's picture
basesix's picture
basesix Saturday, 26 Apr 2025 at 8:05pm

@southern, because the world is as it is and blaming people for the way it is, is socialist propaganda. and the western world has given us the most egalitarian crack at society we've ever had. everyone should act like we're all the same because we are all legally the same. everything social can be sorted by supporting the less fortunate or less tapped-in regardless of their race. social welfare is not a race issue. to say it is is creating a victim culture. the aboriginal-descended people today didn't have their land taken, their distant ancestors did. which is a shame and should be reflected in history books, but not in our constitution, because to do so would say aboriginals are different to the rest of society. dividing people up into groups is marxist brain virus woke dumb fuckety foo run by the world fucking money pit money hole rabbits with holes in their ears, holes in their ears, holes in their ears.. why do elephants in the room have big ears? cos noddy wouldn't pay the ransom..

^ Horrid un-generous clap-trap. A bee's-dick away from archaic-blood talk. we missed a trick with the voice, but it did show where the anti aggressive-left line in the sand is, and how those lines can be used in our politics. our fist people community got a kick in the guts because of it.

Fliplid's picture
Fliplid's picture
Fliplid Saturday, 26 Apr 2025 at 8:04pm
gs-co wrote:

I don’t think it’s a valid argument to say that bank valuations are on balance favourable and consequently cause property prices to be inflated, thus leading to larger loans and higher profits (if that’s what you’re saying): I don’t buy the property-price-bank-valuation spiral idea.

Yes that's what I was getting at and had often wondered if they were somehow manipulating the market in anyway, but I didn't know if that was the case, or even possible. Appreciate the reply, thanks

Fliplid's picture
Fliplid's picture
Fliplid Saturday, 26 Apr 2025 at 8:09pm

sypkan, you left the Trumpets off your list, a bridge too far?

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Saturday, 26 Apr 2025 at 9:16pm
Supafreak wrote:
sypkan wrote:

it's a good question...

https://x.com/JP__75/status/1914970021551608257

and it exposes who is really running this import driven ponzi scheme

and thus, australia...

anyone who thinks voting labor this election will fix anything is kidding themselves

vote labor liberal last!

So who would you like to see as the PM ? If everyone votes independents in , who then leads the country ? It’s ok to say put labor/liberal last but what’s the plan after that ? What policies are you attracted to that independents are putting forward ? I don’t expect an answer. Labor is going to get in with a majority and the Liberal party like the democrats in the US need to change direction and actually come up with some policies rather than just saying no to everything . https://x.com/strangerous10/status/1915187365444030578?s=46

Reckon we’re a long way from everyone voting independent.
Who leads the country? It’ll be fine, all those countries who have been doing coalitions for decades have managed ok.
What independent policies are attractive?
Anti-corruption, political transparency, anti-gambling, an intact environment, cracking down on tax avoidance by large multinationals…
All the stuff the two majors wouldn’t touch in a fit.

Supafreak's picture
Supafreak's picture
Supafreak Saturday, 26 Apr 2025 at 10:10pm
Fliplid wrote:

I wouldn't be surprised if Labor don't get back in Supafreak, plenty of people are believing everything Dutton is saying about it all being "Labors fault". The scare campaign they are running probably resonates with more people this time than the one they ran against Shorten, the irony being that if Shortens policies had gotten up you'd think we'd be, at the very least, in a better position regarding housing costs because there would be less competition in the market from investors. My guess is that not many would be thinking about that though. Admittedly my only exposure to the campaign is following links and discussion put up here and a bit on the ABC so hopefully I'm wrong.

gs-co wrote:

They still predominantly earn most of their income from net interest income (so from the net interest margin between “savings” vs “loans”),

It must help being the ones setting the valuations as well wouldn't it? Meaning the margins are worth more because the borrowings have increased, or have I got that wrong? I've often wondered if this is the way it works

I seriously doubt spud will win his seat let alone the election. Liberals are cooked. Interesting to see if gina keeps spud on the books .

truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher's picture
truebluebasher Saturday, 26 Apr 2025 at 11:43pm

This is the World we Live in and these are the Hands we're Given
Use them & let's start tryin', to make it a place worth livin' in!

I won't be coming home tonight, my generation will put it right
We're not just making promises that we know we'll never keep

This is the World we Live in and these are the Names we're given
Stand up and let's start showing just where our lives are going to.

Lyrics borrowed from Land of Confusion by Genesis
Some great songsmiths back in the day...All say Aye!
Thought we could share some more old school People Power Campaign themes.

&t=45s

&list=PLk6n90VAXJUaHR9AzQfuASgPeqJ-YXsL5&index=35

&t=7s