South-east Queensland and Northern NSW Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon April 22nd)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fun E/SE swell for the Points holding Tues with SE winds
• Slow easing in E/SE-E swell through Wed/Thurs with improving winds opening up beach break options
• OK morning winds Fri before S’lies kick in with some short range S swell in the a’noon
• Fun weekend with S swell favouring NENSW and light winds
• Small into next week with light winds

Recap

Bit of a disappointing weekend as a Coral Sea trough of low pressure formed later and weaker and further out in the Coral Sea with a loss in corresponding wave heights. Sat was small and clean for a while before S’ly winds kicked in and tended SE. By close of play there was 2-3ft surf around. Sunday built further, favouring the Goldy and NENSW protected Points which were showing 3-4ft surf by the end of the day. Still strong SE winds today making a mess of everywhere but sheltered points, which are hovering around the 3-5ft range. Nothing awe inspiring but there are a stack of waves on sheltered Points. 

Size a bit down and quality not the best but still a heap of action on the Superbank today

This week (Apr 22-26)

We’ve got a dominant (1035hPa) high pressure cell sitting just north of the Victorian border, bringing settled conditions and light winds to Central/Southern NSW and strong but easing SE winds in the sub-tropics where a trough of low pressure in the Coral Sea is currently active but dissipating and moving East. Some frontal activity to the south is poorly positioned and aligned but we will see a stronger frontal intrusion into the Tasman later this week, although not with an accompanying Tasman low as suggested on Friday.

Smaller surf than indicated on Fri due to the structure, strength and positioning of the Coral Sea low.

In the short run we’re still looking at a fun run of Point surf with SE winds on tap. Size Tues in the 3-5ft range across the SEQLD outer points, smaller in the more protected inside Points and a notch smaller south of Yamba. Away from the points it’ll be an onshore mess.

We’ll see that swell back down notch through Wed although still holding 3-4ft surf but winds will back down with good odds for a morning land breeze in the morning as pressure gradients ease.

Offshore winds look almost certain Thurs morning in advance of a S’ly change with really fun 3ft surf from the E and a chance of great beachies across the region. Looks like the change will will be on the MNC pretty early in the morning, mid morning across the North Coast and lunch-time into SEQLD. There’ll be some fun peelers on the Points once the S’ly kicks in.

Similar size S swell for Fri although with the high still in the Bight S’ly winds will remain in place. We should see a morning SW flow, at least north of the Harbour, offering up some semi-clean options. Elsewhere, slightly messy 3-5ft surf from the S, easing a bit through the a’noon. Nothing amazing but a surf on offer.

Small E swell leftovers to 2ft or so Fri with the S’ly flow around a northwards moving trough bringing short range S swell to 2-3ft during the day. Mod S’ly winds will confine clean surf to protected Points where you’ll find some babyfood peelers.

This weekend (April 27-28)

We should see cleaner conditions establish over the weekend. Saturday is looking good at this stage. A secondary fetch following the front slingshots into the Tasman later Thurs on an already active sea state and this should supply a nice strong pulse of S swell. Expect solid 4ft sets Sat at S exposed breaks, with some bigger waves at S swell magnets, smaller 2-3ft at SEQLD S exposed breaks and winds look prime. Light offshore W-SW’ly tending to light SE breezes in the a’noon.

Easing surf Sun as that pulse eases with some nice clean 3ft surf for the morning, dropping through the day. Light offshore winds through the morning with weak a’noon NE’ly breezes.

Next week (April 29 onwards)

High pressure moving into the Tasman early next week suggests a quiet start to the week with light winds and small swells.

Small, background swells Mon and Tues with light winds. SE winds in the Coral Sea will be confined to more northerly latitudes but we should see a small E swell signal propagating off the southern edge of the fetch, providing a few small 2ft waves likely from Tues.
We may see a S’ly change later Wed around a weak trough with some stronger frontal activity moving well south in the lower Tasman.

That frontal activity suggests some moderate S swells later next week.

We’ll see what the troughy area does- it’s worth keeping an eye on for any signs of low pressure development, especially considering the time of year.

Check back Wed and we’ll update with all the latest information.