Western Australian Forecast by Steve Shearer (issued Mon October 28th)

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate + sized mix of SW groundswells Tue with E/SE winds in the South West, E/NE to the north ahead of fresh S’ly seabreezes
• Still sizey SW swell Wed with gusty SE winds, smaller Thu with E’ly winds
• Easing swells Fri and onshore winds
• Onshore winds for the weekend with a small bump in size Sat
• Offshore winds Mon AM with small swells
• Not much for the first half of next week
• Second half of next week should see more action as storm track comes back to life-check back Wed for updates

Recap

Moderate SW swells over the weekend offered 4-6ft surf in the SW, smaller 1-2ft in the North with improving winds on Sun. Today has offered continuing strong sets to 5-6ft across the SW, smaller 2ft in the North with fresh E’ly winds, now tending to mod S’ly seabreezes. 

Slow but plenty of size when they came with hard offshores

This week and next week (Oct 28 - Nov 8)

No great change to the near term outlook. Swell generated by pre-frontal W/NW gales will produce a another day of similar sized surf in the SW tomorrow, with sets just a notch bigger and 2-3ft in Mandurah, 2ft in Perth. An inland trough stretched along the west coast will see freshening S’lies as a new high pressure drifts in. There should be a window of mod SE-E/SE winds before an early seabreeze tomorrow. 

Those winds then shift more SE as high pressure drifts under the state and the southern part of the trough moves inland. Still plenty of size on offer Wed with sets to 4-6ft in the SW, 2ft in the North. 

A compact storm passing through the WA swell window Tues/Wed brings a small/moderate sized SW swell reinforcement Thurs. Expect sets to 3-5ft in the SW, 2ft in the North with an E’ly offshore in the morning and a light/late seabreeze. 

Easing swells into Fri, which looks a low point for the week with only slow residual energy to 3ft at exposed breaks between the Capes and tiny surf in the North. Winds turn onshore as a weak/trough and front come ashore so keep expectations pegged very low for Fri.

Into the weekend and we won’t see too much in the way of swell energy with the Indian Ocean in a quiet phase through the main WA swell window. Winds also look ordinary with a strengthening front bringing a SW flow both days at moderate paces. 

The fetch below the front intensifies just on the wrong side of the WA swell window so at this stage we’re only looking at small surf from initial stages of the front impacting WA. Likely in the 4-5ft range Sat in the SW corner and similar Sun but with easing swell periods and onshore winds keep expectations low. Size will be 2ft or below in the Mandurah and Perth region.

Next week we may see a brief window of offshores Mon as high pressure slips into the Bight before a new ridge brings an onshore flow Tues extending into Wed.

No major swells expected for the first half of the week- more small/mod swells in the 3-4ft range. 

The second half of next week does look more active with storms in the Indian Ocean developing Tues/Wed in the proximate swell window and SW of Heard Island through Wed. That would suggest stronger swells into the second half of next week. 

Winds don’t look great with a node of the long wave trough steering fronts and onshore winds into the SW corner. 

Still too far off to have confidence in specifics though so check back in on Wed and we’ll see how it’s shaping up.

Seeya then.