Western Australia Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Saturday 24th October)

Best Days: Tues PM onwards: extended run of large surf, biggest Wed, easing Thurs. Generally good winds Wed/Thurs mornings.

Recap: Our large mid-week swell eased steadily from Thursday onwards, and we’re now back to background energy across the coast with offshore winds. 

Deceptive lil' Perth shorey this morning

This weekend (Oct 24 - 25)

No change to the weekend outlook, with tiny surf expected across metro coasts both days and small intermittent energy down south.

A small new distant groundswell may provide inconsistent 3ft sets to exposed beaches in the lower SW both days, but there won’t be much in it. Conditions will however be clean through the mornings with offshore winds ahead of the afternoon sea breeze. 

Next week (Oct 26 onwards)

We’ve still got a very large swell due next week, thanks to a conveyor belt of powerful fronts pushing around an amplifying node of the Long Wave Trough, in the central/southern Indian Ocean. It’s a very impressive storm track reminiscent of a winter pattern and as it’s pushing quite north in latitude, will deliver overlapping energy from the W/SW across the WA coast.

Monday will remain small with background energy as per the weekend, but Tuesday will see a step-ladder increase in size throughout the Margs region as the first of several new swells muscles into the coast. 

Although large waves are expected from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon, Wednesday will deliver peak size and energy, and most exposed coasts are likely to push north of 12ft to maybe 12-15ft at times. Offshore bombies should be significantly larger thanks to large swell periods. 

Tuesday is at risk of freshening pre-frontal NW winds - not as strong as a classic winter front - but enough to cause headaches. Winds are due to swing W’ly through the afternoon, and then gradually ease overnight. 

As the pressure gradient relaxes, we'll push towards a period of light variable winds, which is on track for Wednesday morning, ahead of a redeveloping southerly flow into the afternoon as a heat trough along the coastal margin starts to develop.

Note: ‘variable’ winds means ‘from any direction’ - which could be onshore. But the trend will be rapidly easing by early Wednesday and we should see a window of good conditions through the day (though, we’ll firm this up in Monday’s notes).

Light offshore winds and sea breezes will then accompany Thursday’s easing trend, from 10-12ft down to 8ft throughout the day.

Across the metro coasts, Perth and Mandurah are less likely to be as influenced by the pre-fontal NW tending W’ly airstream on Tuesday (though it will probably be onshore at some point), and should then experience typical morning offshores/afternoon sea breezes Wednesday and Thursday. Wave heights will build throughout Tuesday, peaking Wednesday as per the Margs coast, reaching 3-5ft across Perth’s exposed spots, and 4-6ft in Mandurah, before easing through Thursday.

So, it’s looking like a great period of waves next week. 

Long term beyond this doesn’t suggest any major activity so we’re probably looking at a return to background energy next weekend. 

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!