Windy swell for the weekend, large early next week

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 25th March)

Best Days: Perth and Mandurah Sunday morning, protected spots Monday afternoon, Tuesday morning, Wednesday morning in the South West

Recap

Wednesday's swell eased back in size through yesterday from 3ft+ across the South West but with nice offshore winds, while a little spike in unexpected swell was seen in Mandurah and Perth to 1-2ft and 1-1.5ft respectively.

Today conditions are poor with less swell and onshore winds.

This weekend and next week (Mar 28 – Apr 3)

Today's onshore winds are linked to a deepening and now stronger mid-latitude low that's currently moving in from the south-west, with an upgrade in its strength day on day since Monday's notes.

We're seeing a fetch of strong to gale-force SW winds aimed towards us, generating a moderate to large short-range SW swell that's expected to kick to 6-8ft, 3ft on the sets in Mandurah and 2ft+ in Perth through the afternoon.

Winds will be poor though and strong but easing out of the W/SW tending SW, with Sunday seeing lingering onshore SW winds across the South West. Perth and Mandurah will be cleaner with E/SE-SE offshores and easing fun waves from 2ft+ in Mandurah and 2ft on the sets in Perth.

Moving into Monday and a temporary low point in swell is expected with a light and more variable but likely lingering SW breeze in the South West, tiny and cleaner to the north.

Our large new S/SW groundswell is still on track for the afternoon, with a strong polar low forming east of the Heard Island region this evening.

This will project a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force SW winds through our southern swell window, with the large, long-period groundswell arriving Monday morning and reaching 8-10ft across the South West swell magnets, 2ft to occasionally 3ft in Mandurah and 2ft+ in Perth. This will be with afternoon sea breezes and best in protected spots.

Tuesday is still looking like the day to surf with the swell easing steadily from 6ft+ in the South West, 2ft in Mandurah and 1-2ft in Perth along with a light offshore SE-E/SE breeze in the South West that will develop through the morning, less favourable and S/SE-SE further north.

A couple of reinforcing pulses of S/SW groundswell are on the cards for the rest of the week, slowing the easing trend, generated by polar fronts projecting up on the back of the low. Winds look favourable Wednesday but back to onshore Thursday, but we'll have a closer look at this on Monday. Have a great weekend!