Western Australia Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Tuesday 26th March)

Best Days: Thurs: moderate new swell for Margs (easing Fri), though windy from the S/SE tending SE, so not amazing conditions. Only small in Perth/Mandurah. Sat: light winds and small leftover surf. Next Thurs/Fri: large new swell, with good waves across Perth/Mandurah.

Recap: Easing swells through Friday and Saturday offered initially solid waves across the Margs region but very small surf across Mandurah and Perth. A large S/SW groundswell built across the coast on Sunday afternoon, pushing a windy 8-10ft by late in the day at a handful of swell magnets, but very little size was seen across Mandurah and Perth due to the southerly component in the swell direction. Monday morning revealed clean 8ft+ sets across the Margs stretch that eased to 4-5ft throughout the day, and has eased subsequently to 2-3ft this morning as offshore winds have freshened. Surf size has remained small across Mandurah and Perth. 

This week (Mar 27 - 29)

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*this week's Forecaster Notes will be occasionally brief and erratic, as Craig is on annual leave - they’ll be updated Tues/Thurs/Sun - to receive notification when they’re updated, please update your account preferences*

The storm track across the Southern Indian Ocean has been quite active over the last week, though most of the strength has been positioned at relatively low latitudes. This will cap surf size across exposed regions compared to what we expected with a more northern storm track.

We’ve got a couple of overlapping long period swell due to arrive through Wednesday afternoon and Thursday that should rebuild exposed spots in the Margs region back up into the 5-6ft range at exposed regions for Thursday, easing into Friday. Wednesday will start off smaller but will trend upwards steadily into the afternoon (note: the wave model is significantly undercalling these swells). Expect long breaks between the sets as this energy will have been generated a long way from the mainland.

Winds will be a bit of a problem for the next few days. Early Wednesday may see a brief period of light winds but freshening southerly breezes are expected throughout the day, and we’ll see gusty S/SE winds Thursday tending more SE into Friday. There’ll be workable options, but protected locations offering the best conditions will be very small. 

Only small surf is expected across metro beaches over the coming days. Wednesday will likely repeat the current tiny conditions; Thursday is your best chance for a wave though we’ll see early S/SE winds tending gusty S/SW through the afternoon, with wave heights reaching just a foot or two tops across Perth’s swell magnets (slightly bigger in Mandurah) and it’ll be very inconsistent too. Friday morning will see clean conditions with SE winds and small easing energy.

This weekend (Mar 30 - 31)

A weakening ridge across the coast and a trough of low pressure to the west will create light variable winds on Saturday and early Sunday, with a chance for freshening northerlies Sunday afternoon as the trough moves closer to the mainland. 

No great surf is expected over the weekend. Saturday will see rapidly easing size from Friday, only suitable to the swell magnets across the Margs region (tiny to the north), whilst Sunday has a small but distant long period groundswell expected to make landfall, from an intense cut-off low traversing south of South Africa a few days ago.

Whilst the odd stray set may build through out the afternoon (3-4ft exposed Maargs breaks maybe?), there’ll be enormous breaks of tiny conditions between waves and with threatening N’ly winds it won’t be worth too much effort.

Next week (April 1 onwards)

The start of next week looks a little average; we’ll see a small new swell from a poorly aligned cut-off low developing W/SW of the region over the weekend. Nothing amazing is likely though.  

A much more significant series of lows and fronts will approach the region from Monday through Tuesday and Wednesday (see below), and this is currently on track to generate a large swell event sometime around next Thursday (leading edge may arrive very late Wednesday), holding into Friday. Early indications are for a peak near 8ft, maybe 8-10ft surf across the Margs region with 2-3ft waves in Perth, slightly bigger in Mandurah.

Let’s see how things are looking in the next update, this Thursday.