West Australian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Tuesday 3rd July)

Best Days: Margs: Thurs: very large swell in Margs, protected waves across inside corners, coves and points once winds veer SW. Fri: large, easing swells with lighter S'ly winds, still best suited to protected bays and points. Weekend: clean with light offshore winds, strong leftover swell Sat, building Sun, easing Mon. Perth/Mandurah: Fri: solid though easing, light E winds. Weekend: small clean swells Sat, building Sun. 

Recap: Gusty onshore winds, building surf. Not a productive period for WA surfers. 

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This week, weekend and next week (Jul 4 onwards)

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Note: Today’s Forecaster Notes will be brief, as Craig is away on annual leave. Also, these Forecaster Notes will be updated Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays for the next few weeks.

No change to the short term outlook.

Wednesday and Thursday will see persistent gales from the NW thru’ W, then W/SW thru’ SW. Wave heights will rebuild steadily and Thursday is likely to push 12-15ft at exposed spots down south, but it’s a moot point when conditions will resemble a washing machine. 

At least Thursday will eventually bring about a swing in the wind direction to the SW, which will start to open up some of the sheltered bays points and coves. 

Across Perth and Mandurah coasts, expect similarly squally conditions with storm surf pushing 4-5ft and 5-6ft respectively as the swell reaches a peak on Thursday (a little smaller Wednesday). We’ll see winds easing through Thursday but it won’t improve a great deal by the end of the day.

Friday should however see a dramatic improvement as a building high pressure ridge directs light E’ly winds across the Perth and Mandurah coasts. Size will be easing from Thursday but we should see early 3-4ft+ and 4-5ft+ surf respectively, before size eases throughout the day. Surface conditions should be nice and clean, if a few lumpy patches leftover from our extended onshore blow.

Across the Margs coast, winds will remain out of the southern quadrant on Friday as a front passes to the south, just clipping the region - though there won’t be much strength locally. Wave heights will ease rapidly from 8-10ft+ down to 6-8ft throughout the day. Protected corners and points should have very good waves on offer as conditions start to settle. 

Unfortunately, the large swell for the weekend (as per Saturday's notes) has been significantly downgraded in the last few runs. It's also been pushed back by a day, with an arrival now expected on Sunday.

The low generating this swell is expected to be smaller, and will hug the Ice Shelf a little closer south of Heard Island resulting in a longer travel distance, with smaller periods than expected a few days ago (and therefore less swell strength) thanks to weaker core winds. 

Fortunately, conditions will be clean all weekend with light offshore winds but Saturday will level out with sets around 5-6ft at exposed spots across the Margs coast, before we see Sunday’s new swell rebuild back up into the 6-8ft+ range, though very inconsistent at times.

The weekend will offer small but clean surf across Perth and Mandurah coasts, around 2ft and 3ft+ on Saturday, building to 2-3ft and 3-4ft+ on Sunday. Expect similarly clean conditions here as well, though also with very long breaks between sets.

Looking further ahead, and after Sunday’s swell eases back into Monday and Tuesday, a series of strong Southern Indian Ocean fronts and lows later this week and into the weekend will deliver a multitude of moderately strong groundswells for the second half of next week ahead of a potentially very large swell next weekend. More on this in Thursday’s update.