West Australian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Saturday 30th June)

Best Days: Margs: Thurs: very large swell in Margs, protected waves inside corners, coves and points with winds to the SW. Sat/Sun: very large clean groundswell with light winds. Perth/Mandurah: Thurs: solid swell, easing winds and improving condiitons. Fri: solid though easing, light SE winds. Sat/Sun: strong swell with light winds. 

Recap: Friday delivered good conditions across the Margs coast with offshore winds and easing swells. Wave heights were small but still workable (just) in Perth, slightly bigger in Mandurah. Today's been much smaller with gusty N'ly winds developing.

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Note: Today’s Forecaster Notes will be brief, as Craig is away on annual leave. Also, these Forecaster Notes will be updated Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays for the next few weeks.

Look, we can delve into the nitty gritty of the outlook but the long and short is that we’ve got an extended period of craptacular conditions on the way, thanks to a sustained frontal progression across the southern half of the state.

Yes, this will occasionally deliver solid surf, even very large to low-end-XL range through Wednesday and Thursday - but winds will be onshore so it’ll be difficult to find anything worthwhile.

In fact, most of the size delivered over the next few days will be short range NW windswell generated by the pre-frontal flow (which is unusually stronger and broader than the trailing fetch behind the front). 

It’s not all doom and gloom though.

The large onshore swell building Wednesday and peaking Thursday will be sourced from a deep polar low developing south of Heard Island tomorrow, which is expected to project nicely through our SW swell window through the first half of next week. Although winds will veer onshore, the upper level long wave trough (driving this week’s fronts into our coast) will have moved to the east by the time the swell reaches a peak, which will allow local winds to at least be south of west - which will therefore provide options inside sheltered bays and points.

And with exposed spots around Margs pushing 12-15ft on Thursday (with a healthy percentage of windswell), there won’t be any shortage of size either.

Perth and Mandurah coasts will also see elevated wave heights through this period (peaking around 3-5ft and 4-6ft respectfully) and winds should rapidly ease throughout the day. Therefore, Thursday afternoon has some potential but Friday morning stands a better chance for clean conditions with light SE winds and solid though easing SW swells. 

Next weekend is looking potentially fantastic at this stage. An intense secondary front trailing behind the long wave trough is expected to push up through our S/SW swell window mid-late week, generating a large long period swell for Saturday. Core winds could be upwards of 50-60kts, which will more than compensate for the extra travel distance compared to Thursday's swell, and will alsi significantly amplify wave heights at offshore reefs.

Even better, locally we’ll be under a high pressure ridge by this time so winds should be light and variable.

At this early stage we can expect 12-15ft surf across the Margs region - way more at offshore bombies - but the strong southerly component in the swell direction will create a much wider variation in size across the region. Also, this will restrict size in Perth and Mandurah, more so that we usually see. But there'll be great waves just about everywhere is the model guidance holds true.

See you Tuesday for the next update.