West Australian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Thursday 28th June)

Best Days: Friday AM: clean easing surf in all regions, still reasonably solid in Margs but small in Perth and Mandurah. Light winds.

Recap: Poor surf Wednesday with developing onshore winds. Decent groundswells this morning with better than expected winds in Perth in the morning (E/SE), even Mandurah was light and variable. Across the Margs region conditions were mixed with SW tending S/SW winds around Margaret River, but S/SE tending SE winds around Yallingup. Size managed 2-3ft in Perth, 3-4ft in Mandurah and 6-8ft across the Margs coast. 

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Solid set at Yallingup this afternoon

This week, weekend and next week (Jun 27 onwards)

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Note: Today’s Forecaster Notes will be brief, as Craig is away on annual leave. Also, these Forecaster Notes will be updated Tuesdays, Thursdays and Saturdays for the next few weeks.

Today's swell has reached a peak and will trend down through Friday. A ridge of high pressure will move in from the west, creating light variable winds at most locations, and thus clean conditions.

Wave heights will be small in Perth (occasional 2ft sets early, easing), slightly bigger in Mandurah and up to 4-6ft across the Margs region though we’ll see a foot or so lost by the end of the day. So aim for an early paddle, though there'll be good waves all day down south.

Small swells and freshening northerly winds are expected over the weekend. If your’e desperate for a surf, early Saturday morning will provide a brief window of light NE winds across the Margs coast with occasional 3-4ft sets, though it’ll become bumpy by lunchtime. It'll be very small in Perth so don't get your hopes up.

Looking into next week and a series of strong weather systems will move towards our region.

However, the first system - crossing the coast with squally NW winds Monday ahead of a gale force W’ly change Tuesday - has had its swell potential downgraded, due to a tweak in the alignment of the primary fetch. In fact, it’s the pre-frontal NW fetch that’ll be the strongest of the pattern that will contribute the most size to the region (and a lot of rain too, most likely).

As per the chart to below (and the associated weekend synoptic at the bottom, showing it approaching over the weekend), you can see that the primary swell direction on Monday and Tuesday (in Margaret River) is anywhere from the N/NW around to the W/NW. With gusty onshore winds there won't be many options to look forward to.

The next frontal system will cross the coast around Thursday (with a period off lighter onshore winds between, on Wednesday) but it too is being modeled as having a strong meridional alignment through the Southern Indian ocean and its swell potential is therefore not terribly high. This is a shame as our swell window is otherwise quite active.

The long and short of the outlook period is that we’re looking at mainly moderate swells, and very dicey winds for the most part, with only brief windows of opportunity for surfers. I’ll have a better take on next week’s waves in Saturday’s update.

But for now, make the most of Friday.