Large swells inbound but with poor winds

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 6th April)

Best Days: Unfortunately no good days for the South West, Mandurah and Perth Wednesday morning

Recap

Good fun waves yesterday and this morning across the South West to 4-5ft at magnets, while Mandurah and Perth saw 2ft surf yesterday, a bit smaller this morning. Conditions are still great so make the most of it as the weekend looks average.

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This week and weekend (Apr 7 - 13)

As talked about on Wednesday, a weak trough moving in from the west will bring onshore W/SW winds tomorrow and a drop in swell from today.

Similar onshore winds are then due into Sunday, though Perth and Mandurah may see more variable winds at dawn, though with no size.

We then look to the large SW groundswell due early next week, with a strong polar front forecast to project towards over the weekend.

An initial fetch W/SW gales will then be followed by a slightly stronger fetch of W/SW winds pushing north-east and into us while weakening early Monday.

There isn't expected to be much windswell on the build Monday now as the front only clips the South West, with building mid-period SW swell due to reach 6ft+ later in the day across the South West, peaking Tuesday to 6-8ft. Mandurah should build later to 2ft+ and Perth 2ft, peaking Tuesday to 2-3ft.

Winds Monday will remain poor with a fresh W/NW tending SW breeze and unfortunately Tuesday will see freshening W/SW winds as a small weak front pushes in from the west.

The swell will ease slowly from the S/SW Wednesday owing to a secondary fetch of SW gales being generated through our southern swell window on the backside of the storm.

Winds look to unfortunately linger from the S/SW Wednesday with easing sets from 6ft in the South West, 2ft further north with morning S/SE winds.

Now, moving into the end of the week and beyond, we've got some strong polar storms on the cards.

Firstly a vigorous mid-latitude low forming under South Africa will generate an initial fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds in our far western swell window, producing a very inconsistent moderate to large W/SW groundswell that's due to arrive overnight Friday and peak Saturday afternoon.

We'll see a larger more consistent SW swell override this though, generated as the low drifts south-east and produces a broader fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds, projecting ideally up towards us through the middle to end of next week while slowly weakening.

The front proper pushing into us will generate large building levels of SW windswell Friday, with a peak Saturday that currently looks to be in the 10-12ft range. The European model has a slightly weaker and different setup but still large swell, though we'll review this again Monday.