Drought breaking XL swell next week

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 10th March)

Best Days: Sunday afternoon for desperate surfers in the South West, Thursday morning

Recap

Small bumpy surf across Margs through the mornings, with tiny waves to the north.

This weekend and next week (Mar 11 - 17)

Don't bother about surfing over the weekend. Tomorrow will be tiny, while Sunday looks clean most of the day with a fresh but easing E/SE breeze, with a slight kick in swell to 2-3ft through the afternoon across the South West.

A better S/SW groundswell is due to fill in Monday afternoon, produced by a strong polar low that's currently forming in the Heard Island region.

This low will track less than ideally through our southern swell window but generate winds in the severe-gale to storm-force range.

We should see a good kick across the South West to 6ft by dark Monday, similar Tuesday morning. Perth should kick to 1-2ft later in the day.

Unfortunately an approaching front will create average conditions with a fresh W/SW tending W/NW breeze Monday, strengthening from the W/NW Tuesday.

This front will actually be the pre-cursor to a very intense and severe low forming on its tail, projecting north-east towards Indonesia.

We'll see a fetch of severe-gale SW winds generated through our western swell window, before the low tracks east and towards Margaret River mid-next week while continuing to produce severe-gale W/SW winds.

What will result is an XL and stormy W/SW groundswell mixed in with windswell filling in Wednesday and easing Thursday.

Size wise we're looking at 12-15ft storm surf around Margs with strong W/SW winds, 3-5ft in Perth, easing back from a touch smaller size Thursday.

Now winds Thursday are expected to improve rapidly, along with surface conditions as a ridge of high pressure moves in, with SE offshores around Perth and variable winds in the South West.

Lets hope this hold over the weekend forecast, but check back Monday for the latest. Have a great weekend!