Sneaky swell for later today, with Monday being the next day with the most energy

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday September 6th)

Best Days: Today (morning to the east), tomorrow, Sunday, Monday Surf Coast, Tuesday, Wednesday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Moderate sized SW groundswell for late today and early tomorrow, easing
  • N/NW-NW tending W/NW winds tomorrow
  • Temporary low point in swell Sun AM, with some new, inconsistent mid-period W/SW swell building into the PM
  • Strong N/NW-NW winds Sun
  • Mix of moderate sized close-range W/SW swell and building long-range energy Mon with W/NW winds
  • Swells slowly easing Tue, further Wed
  • Fresh NW tending variable winds Tue, local offshore tending variable ahead of a late change Wed
  • S winds Thu/Fri
  • Moderate sized SW groundswell building late Fri

Recap

It’s been a fun couple of days across the Surf Coast reefs and beaches with ebbs and pulses of reinforcing W/SW swell between 3ft to occasionally 4ft. Winds were up a bit from the north yesterday morning, more offshore into the afternoon with this morning offering glassy conditions.

To the east, strong winds made for tricky conditions yesterday along with the size of the swell, a bit cleaner this morning but still sizey and not ideal on the morning low tides. Winds will swing more N/NW and then W/NW through the day, adding bumps to the east after lunch.

This weekend and next week (Sep 7 - 13)

The coming weekend will continue to provide fun options on the Surf Coast with further pulses of mid-period W/SW swell mostly in the 3ft range. 

Firstly though for later today and early tomorrow, a small, tight low has generated a short-lived, sneaky pulse of W/SW-SW swell that should come in at 3-4ft on the Surf Coast, 5-6ft to the east. The satellite imagery from this low is impressive so I wouldn’t be surprised if there was the odd bigger sneaker set.

This swell will ease through the day and N/NW-NW winds will create great conditions, tending W/NW into the afternoon.

We’re still looking at a temporary low point in swell Sunday morning though not below 2-3ft on the Surf Coast, with some new mid-period W/SW swell due into the afternoon, with some better energy through Monday to Tuesday.

The source will be a strong, northward projecting frontal progression that pushed across Western Australia the last couple of days.

This will generate some inconsistent W/SW energy to 3ft on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft to the east later Sunday and more so Monday (with more swell on top - discussed below). Strong N/NW-NW winds will favour the Surf Coast again on Sunday, with Monday seeing persistent W/NW winds.

Now, into Monday afternoon and Tuesday, a less consistent but slightly stronger pulse of W/SW swell is due, generated by a polar front on the backside of the system projecting towards Western Australia.

This should produce a slight kick in energy to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast magnets (slow) with 5-6ft sets to the east. Ahead of this swell though during Monday, the remnants of this front will also move through Sunday afternoon, generating some additional close-range energy Monday more to the 4ft range on the Surf Coast.

Fresh NW tending variable winds are due on Tuesday, with Wednesday seeing easing surf with local offshore tending variable winds ahead of a late S/SW change thanks to an incoming trough.

Size wise the Surf Coast looks to ease slowly Wednesday from 3ft with 4-5ft sets to the east

Smaller surf is then due into the end of the week with S/SE winds likely to persist Thursday, while another trough may bring S/SW winds Friday.

Longer term fun pulses of SW groundswell are due from late Friday through next weekend and early the following week but winds look a bit iffy. Therefore make the most of the current and coming favourable conditions and fun sized surf. Have a great weekend!

Comments

stingz's picture
stingz's picture
stingz Friday, 6 Sep 2024 at 5:02pm

Any word on when the fairhaven cam will be back on?

Mexican's picture
Mexican's picture
Mexican Saturday, 7 Sep 2024 at 2:43pm

“Crickets”

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 7 Sep 2024 at 4:13pm

Prob in the next couple of weeks. Sorry for the downtime.

Mexican's picture
Mexican's picture
Mexican Sunday, 8 Sep 2024 at 12:30pm

Thanks Ben.

Beggsie's picture
Beggsie's picture
Beggsie Saturday, 7 Sep 2024 at 12:12pm

To all the people who surf at places beyond there ability please be conscious of your surroundings
Hey we all started somewhere
So go back there till you can not be so dangerous!

Just saying when we grew up surfing the surfcoast we didn’t just paddle out inside and take whatever
We would get verbalised or a punch
I’m not saying violence is cool but please bring back some order in these crowded lineups
You get more respect if you are aware who the locals are
They will give you a wave if your not a tool
I’m happy to share just respect the local boys

shetrickedme3's picture
shetrickedme3's picture
shetrickedme3 Sunday, 8 Sep 2024 at 11:51am

I agree Beggsie, I think it’s great that there’s new faces in the water everywhere, enjoying the surf and that we see less cranky old men in the lineup pretending they own it. I personally loved growing up surfing being yelled at by old blokes, I’m glad my kids won’t have to deal with that stuff. I’ll be encouraging my groms to make the drive down from Brunswick every weekend and paddle straight up the inside to snake waves from cranks like you.

AlfredWallace's picture
AlfredWallace's picture
AlfredWallace Sunday, 8 Sep 2024 at 12:52pm

Beggsie. Hi.
I’m a surfer from the Surf Coast, probably older than you.

I’m with @shetrickedme3

Go back and read your rant. Don’t you think it sounds a tad righteous exhibiting, mental ownership and that horrible phenomenon I despise, ‘parochial localism’.

The line up will always sort itself out regardless of where you are from and/or how good your ability is.

When you left the uterus, were you instantly a good surfer, I doubt it ?

Who gives you the right to take ownership of a certain surf spot or suggest what others should do whilst in the water. Give me a valid response please. It’s not your rules.

Rules in the water , respect all, not locals or ring ins , ‘all’.

Do you surf internationally. I sincerely hope you respect others in their backyard if you are going to be steadfast with your selfish mantra.

EVERYONE is a learner at some stage.

Didn’t you get your anticipated wave count up to your satisfactory level during the recent swell event.

What a pussy, sounds like you are crying over spilt milk to me.

When was the last time you applauded someone for catching a great wave or for surfing it well ?
Maybe you should try it, it’s a good feeling and it’s contagious and ultimately imbibes a great vibe amongst the line up, trust me,it works and your reciprocal wave count will go up.

I thought this dinosaur approach to surfing was waning, obviously not. For fuck sake. AW

only-sams's picture
only-sams's picture
only-sams Sunday, 8 Sep 2024 at 2:35pm

If you think vicco crowds/behaviour are bad don’t ever travel anywhere else because you’re in for a shock

Chris T's picture
Chris T's picture
Chris T Sunday, 8 Sep 2024 at 3:50pm

Spent two months surfing in at canggu, medawi, ulus airports etc.. watching japanese, chinese ,euros russians etc.. etc getting pushed into waves by surf coaches ?, causing all sorts of drama, injuries, a hole in a girls head, drop ins, cant blame the balinise is how l tried to looked at it.. 300 dollar a month wage for an average worker driving an hour each day, gotta feed the family, but really bad behaviour by people with no surf culture was what you see a lot, Go Past Lorne in the middle off winter on a ten degree day, for some peace and quite and some manners in the past..but with the internet and good wetsuits thats going as well..SA with the great whites is all thats left..

Beggsie's picture
Beggsie's picture
Beggsie Monday, 9 Sep 2024 at 10:17am

Mate I travel every year
the locals get there waves
I surf within my ability and I’m polite say gday and with a bit of luck get a wave or two
Open your eyes lads
Someone was hurt by someone unable to even sit on surfboard let alone paddle it

As to Mr Wallace
I got heaps of waves and had some of the best surfs all year mate
It’s when people get hurt and if it was your mate/son/daughter and they ended up in hospital with a head injury due to said incident you might just feel annoyed with the free for all no rules applies
Because that behaviour is dangerours Mr Wallace

pittsy's picture
pittsy's picture
pittsy Monday, 9 Sep 2024 at 10:23am

theres been alot of board ditching recently in conditions that do not justify/no looking around before bailing - similar scenario?

rorpeedo's picture
rorpeedo's picture
rorpeedo Monday, 9 Sep 2024 at 9:52am

Beggsie you’re combining two completely seperate points.

1 - try to match your level of ability with what the ocean is presenting you.

2 - respect the locals.

Your first point is valid and we should all be honest with ourselves on where we should surf, where we should sit in the line up relative to our abilities.

Your second point is just tripe. We could all benefit from being communal and giving in the surf. More often than not the locals are the ones that set a bad example, because they feel entitled. Surfing is one of the more selfish things you can do and blaming locals or non locals for line up etiquette is foolish

dbut's picture
dbut's picture
dbut Monday, 9 Sep 2024 at 10:15am

Surfing has its own unique culture, deeply rooted in respect for the ocean and for those who have dedicated themselves to understanding its ever-changing conditions. Just like when you travel overseas and respect local customs, traditions, and ways of life, entering a surf break is much the same. Every break has its own rhythm, its own community, and its own unwritten rules, shaped by the surfers who call it home.

Localism in surfing often gets misunderstood, but it plays a crucial role in maintaining the harmony and respect within the surf community. For many surfers, their local break is like their home—a place where they’ve invested years, built deep connections, and cultivated a strong sense of belonging. Just as you wouldn’t walk into someone’s home without showing respect or following their customs, the same principle applies when entering a surf break where locals have spent years building a culture of etiquette and mutual respect.

By giving that respect—waiting your turn, understanding the local flow, and honoring the unwritten rules—you’re participating in a system that benefits everyone. When you respect the way things work, locals are more likely to share their knowledge, guide you to better waves, and create a more welcoming atmosphere. The system of localism becomes a powerful teaching tool, where newcomers can learn from those who have spent a lifetime understanding the break, the ocean, and the culture. It’s a system built on respect, and by following it, you earn your place in the lineup and a richer surfing experience.

While locals help keep the coastline in harmony by looking after their surf spots, their role goes beyond beach care. They act as the guardians of the break, ensuring that everyone respects both the waves and each other. If someone breaks the rules—whether by dropping in on others or acting recklessly—it’s often the locals who step in to keep the peace and preserve the balance in the lineup. Without this system of respect and local stewardship, the experience for everyone would suffer, and the sense of community in the water would be lost.

Of course, like any system, there are always bad eggs—individuals who take the concept of localism too far and act aggressively or unfairly, giving localism a bad name. These outliers don’t represent the majority and often undermine the positive community dynamic that localism can foster. Just because there are a few people who abuse the system doesn’t mean the system itself is flawed. When practiced with balance and respect, localism helps maintain harmony in the lineup and teaches all surfers, new and seasoned, the importance of community and humility in the water.

only-sams's picture
only-sams's picture
only-sams Monday, 9 Sep 2024 at 10:08am

I see it like defensive driving, there is some onus on you as an experienced surfer to anticipate and react accordingly when in a line up full of varied abilities.

Becomes 10 times more important at low barrier to entry breaks like the SC points - doesn't happen at pumping beachies as much because the paddle out is the great equaliser.

Hiccups's picture
Hiccups's picture
Hiccups Monday, 9 Sep 2024 at 10:28am

Boring and played out argument. Beggsie, you're not wrong. If someone in the water is out of their depth and/or being a pest/dangerous to others, they should totally be told, politely of course, to gtfo.

Every lifelong surfer has their own views on localism. Some will be total nazis, some totally inclusive, but the vast majority are somewhere in between, as they should be.