Significant swell due on the weekend
Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday August 30th)
Best Days: Today, tomorrow, Sunday, Monday morning, Tuesday, Wednesday exposed beaches, Thursday
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Large, mid-period W/SW swell building gradually tomorrow, peaking Sun with an additional large, long-period groundswell in the mix
- Strong W/NW winds tomorrow, tending NW later
- Strong NW winds Sun
- Reinforcing large mid-period W/SW-SW swell Mon with strong W/NW tending W/SW winds
- Easing swell Tue with mod-fresh but easing NW winds
- Smaller Wed with strong N winds
- Moderate sized, inconsistent W/SW groundswell Thu with gusty N/NW winds
Recap
Wednesday’s building mid-period energy was replaced by stronger, more organised and clean lines of W/SW groundswell yesterday, coming in at 6-8ft across the Surf Coast magnets with 8-10ft waves to the east.
Conditions were great but not perfect during the morning, becoming more ruler edge into the afternoon with conditions cleaning up considerably east of Melbourne as well.
This morning we’ve got a drop in swell and more west in the wind, favouring protected spots on the Surf Coast.
Large with some slight lump yesterday morning
This weekend and next week (Aug 31 - Sep 6)
We’re one swell down, with plenty more to come from tomorrow through early next week.
A large southern ocean gyre has developed south of the country, with multiple embedded fronts spinning around its core, generating various pulses of large swell from tomorrow through Tuesday.
Our secondary larger swell producer for the weekend is currently moving in from the west, with a broad fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds projecting towards us, generating a large pulse of building W/SW for tomorrow, peaking Sunday morning. This will then be boosted further into Sunday by a secondary front generating severe-gale to possibly storm-force W’ly winds on top of the active sea state during tomorrow.
Looking at tomorrow and we should see the swell building steadily through the day, likely from 4-6ft in the morning on the Surf Coast magnets, towards 6-8ft later in the day.
This secondary front will generate large, long period surf for Sunday, with the Surf Coast due to come in at 8-10ft on the sets with 10-12ft waves to the east.
We’ll then see a third strong frontal system slamming us on Monday, bringing with it continued large surf to 8ft+ across the Surf Coast and 10ft+ to the east but with less favourable winds.
Coming back to the conditions for the weekend though and strong W/NW winds are due tomorrow morning, tipping back more NW later in the day, with Sunday seeing strong NW winds all day, creating excellent conditions.
Come Monday, the swell generating front looks a bit more favourable now with strong W/NW winds due most of the morning, shifting W/SW into the afternoon before then easing quite substantially through the day Tuesday. Morning moderate to fresh NW winds will back off and possibly tend variable into the afternoon.
Size wise, the Surf Coast will be on a slow easing trend but still 6ft to occasionally 8ft across the magnets with larger sets to the east.
Wednesday looks smaller again though still moderate in size across the Surf Coast but stronger N winds will favour the beaches over the reefs.
Into the end of the week, some trailing frontal activity out in the Indian Ocean looks to generate some good, reinforcing W/SW groundswell for Thursday under N/NW winds but we’ll have a closer look at this Monday. Have a great weekend!
Comments
Swell bender, is it still winter if you don't sleep?
Hahaha. Sure!
Tubba on the Pips to round out Swell bender?
Glass Giovani flying in for the swell?
Boys are all smiles down here... Nice to finally not look at NSW surf cams with sad envy.
Yay, a bay swell at last!
Pier 3182 was ALL TIME!!!
Pretty average this morning, quite west in the wind and the high tide made it slooooooow
Got significantly better later on…cooking!
Must be a record :)
http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDS65030.shtml
Ha. Wow might not survive this swell.
Normally those aberrations happen in quiet conditions, when a sneaky fisherman ties up to the buoy to stop drifting.
Can't imagine that being the case today though.
46.1m max and a second at 28.1m It’s wasn’t even an outlier. Good period too :)
Should a least be double the size of this ;)
That’s such a good photo. Is that you?
Thanks GF, photo yes surfer no :) that was the may 2023 swell, surfed further down the coast for the day. Was solid all day but really pulsed late with a glass off. Passing back through took a few shots, arms and body was proper cooked so could not fathom it. Just took it in. Not often you see it at size with that wind combo. Whole day was magic but that arvo was really something else. I’ll throw up a few more photos, was suppose to shoot a few through to Craigos but never got around to it
HFD to all the dads out there. Hope you get plenty of good ones if your getting the sand and salt between your toes
That's properly mental.
Is that a real wave then, Draupner might be getting jealous
How big did it get at the magnets this arvo?
Anyone know what the story was with the helicopter rescue from the water up Winki way?
sounds like someone got washed down to the poo cave and beyond to boobs etc.
Pretty solid :)
Nice pics geek. Cheers
Nice!
There some very good waves down the ocean road this arvo. Not as big as Bells/ Winki of course but groomed beautifully by that strong offshore.
That offshore is completely nuts today! You'd be totally blind on the drop if you could paddle into one. Rooster tails for 100m
How big the bombs at bells today? Must be absolutely giant!!
Would have been the perfect day for the 50 year storm contest if it was in the waiting period.
The winds just destroying it
About 12:00 today I saw the biggest waves I can remember seeing on this coast.
Breaking probably about 1-2km out.
No idea what size. Looked 15-20 feet.
Were you looking outward from Bells, goofy?
I've seen a bombie break out the back of there.
No vj Rye back beach, didn’t make it over your way today.
Did you get in?
Eyes were burning from so much salt water spray.
dear diary saturday 31/8/24
went for a surf, had to think outside of the box because everyones fav spots woul be a meat market. was sick of waiting for high tide so hit it up at 1;15pm. swell was very slow and when it came was not hitting reef consistantly wind was gusty anywhere from nnw top wnw there were 2 waves it was so windy it would not let me on to the wave, got several waves and 2 absoulute corkers. noted double rainbow out the back and another after single after the double. duly noted excuse list from absent friends friend 1 im going windsurfing friend 2 i have band recordings.
dear diary sunday 1/9/24
went for a surf, 5 year old daughter told me to look the waves they have there claws out (rooster tail) started to get amped and thought it could be similer to the jan 2017 swell with a howling nw wind. surfed 1 of the swell magnets. got 3 waves. swell was inconsistant again but not as slow as previous day. would have to say it was at the point of nearly impossible to catch waves with the wind blowing up the face. overall experience 5/10. freshwater creek coffee 1/10 noted friends excuces no 1 i have a sore sholder friend no 3. i might go monday
Check Steve Arklay insta stories for Shyama on an absolute screamer at winki on a 6’3 twin fin
Jeezus....Full Throttle Fark YEW !
Check Renatomartinsphotography on Insta and soon on facebook for this swell photos and videos since last Thursday. God give me extra time to edit all photos and videos. AI help me.
was watching winki and bells late this arvo and I have never seen such a consistant pulse, it was mental, im calling the most consistant ive ever seen it. half hr before dark a clean up set rolled through bells easy 8 ft plus. winki had so many unridden waves go through. not often there are more waves than surfers out there, so sick
ah, easily explained @thc, the juegasiempre word has gotten out.
my new fave influencer, he got aura, and tots rizz with the viccos,
easy predict, winki be empty by mid sept. cha, j-pre!
Windy night ahead.
boofy wind about to kick here, gonna stay up for it with a red. got a nice view of the bay. feels fantastic.
(fanged across from portland to beachport for an early morning experiment tommoz.. a mate with a tinny and a plan, says we need the next two days to get it sweet, haha).
Fawkner Beacon reached 76kt!