Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday July 5th)

Best Days: Tomorrow, Sunday, Monday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate + sized SW groundswell for tomorrow, easing later and further Sun
• N/NE winds developing tomorrow AM ahead of SE sea breezes mid-late PM
• Moderate to fresh NE-N/NE winds Sun, tending E into the mid-late PM
• Fun reinforcing S/SW swell Mon AM with moderate to fresh N/NE-NE winds
• Fading surf Tue with N tending S winds
• Small, building W swell Fri with strong NW tending W/NW winds
• Hopefully better W swell next weekend

Recap

Average to poor conditions around Torquay yesterday and more so today with freshening onshore winds and some new, building W/SW groundswell. Locations further east were better yesterday morning though a bit bumpy into the afternoon, with slightly more protected options fairing best today.

This weekend and next week (Jul 6 - 12)

As touched on in Wednesday’s notes, we should see the surf improve across all locations on the weekend as winds tend light N/NE through tomorrow morning, ironing out lumps and bumps as the morning goes on.

SE sea breezes are expected mid-late afternoon and it’ll be cleanest right before they hit. Swell wise, our moderate + sized pulse of SW groundswell is on track with the severe-gale fetch of W/NW-NW winds due to generate a peak in size tomorrow morning.

Sets to 4-5ft are due on the Surf Coast magnets (3-4ft elsewhere), 6ft+ to the east, easing back into the afternoon and further Sunday from 3ft and 4-5ft respectively. Moderate to fresh N/NE-NE winds should create great conditions on the beaches, with winds shifting a little more E’ly into the afternoon.

We’ve got a fun, reinforcing pulse of mid-period S/SW swell for Monday morning from a secondary front generating weaker W/NW winds in our swell window over the coming days.

This should keep the Surf Coast around an inconsistent 2-3ft, easing through the day with 4ft sets to the east and with a persistent, moderate to fresh NE-N/NE wind.

A N’ly offshore is due again Tuesday morning but with small to tiny leftovers, while a trough looks to bring S’ly winds into the afternoon.

There’s nothing significant to follow swell wise until later next week and more so the weekend as a strong frontal progression starts moving in from the west.

The progression will try and move in early next week but be deflected to the south-east, with a stronger push due mid-late week, hopefully generating moderate levels of W/SW swell next weekend.

ECMWF has the progression a little bit too far north than ideal so we’ll have to look at this more closely next week. In the meantime enjoy the fun waves on offer this weekend!