Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday February 14th)

Best Days: Keen surfers Friday, beaches Saturday morning, keen surfers Tuesday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Inconsistent, moderate sized mid-period SW swell tomorrow with variable tending light offshore winds ahead of relatively weak PM sea breezes
• Easing surf Fri with moderate SE tending fresher S/SE winds
• Small mix of new mid-period SW swell Sat, and inconsistent SW groundswell late Sat/Sun
• Light-mod SE winds, freshening Sat, more variable Sun AM
• Moderate sized mid-period SW swell Mon with moderate S/SE winds, freshening
• Easing swell Tue with local offshore winds ahead of sea breezes

Recap

Great conditions with a fun pulse of S/SW swell to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft to the east yesterday morning, clean ahead of storms and a strong, cool change into the afternoon.

The swell kicked up by the front has come in a little chunkier than expected with easy 4ft surf on the Surf Coast with workable conditions, larger but a mess to the east.

Good surf yesterday AM

This week and next (Feb 15 - 23)

Today's low period increase in swell will fade into tomorrow, though replaced by some slightly stronger but less consistent mid-period energy. This was generated by the earlier stages of the frontal system on the polar shelf and should maintain 3-4ft sets on the Surf Coast, 4-6ft to the east with what now looks to be more favourable winds.

Following today's onshores, winds are due to go variable into tomorrow morning, likely light W/NW on the Surf Coast and E/NE to the east, though with a bit of lump and wobble. Sea breezes aren't expected to really come up strong until mid-afternoon so there's plenty of time for a couple of sessions.

Friday looks less favourable as a high fills in from the west, bringing a moderate SE breeze that will freshen through the day from the S/SE.

This will be with easing 3ft sets on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft to the east.

Moving into the weekend, we should see a mix of smaller, reinforcing mid-period SW swell from a weak front passing under the country tomorrow and some long-range groundswell from a strong but short-lived polar low in the Heard Island region.

Inconsistent surf to 2-3ft is due both Saturday and Sunday but with persistent, light to moderate SE winds on the former (possibly tending light E to the east) and the chance of more variable winds come Sunday. We'll have to review this again on Friday but regardless there should be OK waves for most of the weekend in the mornings.

Into next week, a new pulse of mid-period SW swell is due Monday, generated by a strengthening frontal system moving under the country on Saturday. The Surf Coast looks to kick back to 3ft with 4-5ft surf sets to the east though winds look to be less reliable and likely moderate from the S/SE, cleaner Tuesday morning as it eases.

Following this there's nothing significant on the cards so make the most of the coming windows.