Good W/SW swell for the weekend with favourable morning winds
Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday January 24th)
Best Days: Surf Coast Saturday and Sunday mornings, beaches to the east Monday
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Tiny tomorrow
- Building mid-period W/SW swell Fri, strongest later with mod-fresh W/NW tending strong W/SW-SW winds late morning, into the PM
- Moderate sized W/SW groundswell for Sat and Sun AM with moderate W/NW winds, tending strong S/SW late AM
- Moderate W/NW tending S/SW winds late AM Sun, S/SE into the PM
- Easing surf Mon with E/NE-NE tending SE winds
- Smaller Tue with S winds
- S winds for Wed/Thu, possibly back NE Fri
Recap
Improving surf yesterday ahead of a wobbly start at dawn with winds swinging offshore for the beaches during the morning along with some good background energy to 3ft across locations to the east, 2ft or so on the Surf Coast.
This morning the surf is much smaller and back to a small 1-2ft to the east, tiny on the Surf Coast. Early light winds are now freshening from the west creating poor conditions to the east.
Fun surf yesterday
This week and weekend (25 - 28)
Tomorrow will remain a lay day thanks to the lack of swell, while moving into Friday we should see some building mid-period W/SW energy ahead of a good pulse of W/SW groundswell through Saturday with generally favourable winds for protected spots.
The frontal system linked to the swell is currently just south-west of Western Australia, generating a fetch of strong W/SW winds with embedded gales. This has generated the W/SW groundswell component of the swell coming this period, with that due arrive early Saturday morning and peak through the day.
Ahead of this though the remnants of the frontal system will push east over the coming days, generating a weaker fetch of W/SW winds and some weaker mid-period W/SW swell for Friday, building through day.
The Surf Coast looks to start small and only to 1-2ft early, but increasing size and energy is due into the afternoon/evening, reaching 3ft by late afternoon (likely bigger later).
Saturday still looks to come in around 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ to the east. The easing trend looks slow thanks to a secondary, weaker front moving in Saturday, providing some additional mid-period swell to the mix. Easing sets from 3-4ft are due on the Surf Coast Sunday, 6ft to the east.
Winds on Friday should be favourable for the Surf Coast in the morning (though with weak, small swell energy), moderate to fresh from the W/NW but a strong W/SW-SW change is due into the late morning/early afternoon.
Saturday morning looks clean with a moderate W/NW offshore, again shifting SW later morning and strengthening into the afternoon, similar Sunday with winds shifting S/SW then S/SE through the afternoon.
Winds are still due to swing around to the E/NE-NE on Monday morning, favouring the beaches to the east as the swell eases back from a solid 4ft+ or so, 2ft+ on the Surf Coast.
Make the most of this run of waves as a trough will bring a S'ly change on Tuesday which looks to linger in the region through the rest of the week, creating average conditions. More on this Friday.
Comments
Bold Craig yes! Cheers.
Can’t recall a summer like this before where temperatures have yo yo’d so much for so long.
It’s been months since we’ve had temps stay even close to each other for more than three days. Huge swings again next week.
I guess due to a highly unsettled atmosphere?
Just reading that 3 people drowned at Forrest Caves this afternoon. No good. RIP.
Nice touch with the bold font Craig
Surfed a fun beachy thigh to shoulder wedgie SE wind peaks yesterday.
Thought I was in NSW as we don't often get these sort of beachies.
Would have been dangerous at the Caves as the close period swell would have been banking up the rips and the water would have looked inviting with the smaller swell.
My self and fellow surfing colleagues have pulled many out from the water at Forrest Caves over the years. Treacherous rips there probably worse than woolies due to the reefs scattered along the the beach.
I was involved in a beach education campaign through the Nature Park 20 odd years ago.
Sponsored by the "Play it Safe by the water campaign" my colleagues and I would show aerials of how rips worked, use dye in the water and do a beach walk spotting rips and sand banks as we went. We also discussed the pitfalls of various surf craft like getting blown out in a strong offshore wind on a Boogie without flippers.
It was one of our most successful summer holiday programs finishing with a BBQ and a beach themed jug band.
Similar programs should be mandatory in schools.
Anyone actually see this reportedly 4m GW Shark at Sorrento pier?
Ive seen a 4.5m shark in SA and they are freaking huge, I'd be surprised if it wasn't a small bronzie seen at Soz
https://7news.com.au/news/great-white-shark-sighted-near-sorrento-pier-o...
The Polperro dolphin boat has confirmed the shark was a 1.5 to 2m juvenile Bronze whaler spotted at Sorrento.
@RockyIsland.
good on you for investing your time in that, especially being a local down on that often/pretty much always treacherous for inexperienced stretch you luckily live by.
Listened to an SLSC guy on the radio today blubbing on with a lot of vague and pretty useless advice this morning, "like float and wave for help in a rip" and even saying going down to Forrest Caves is ok because it's so beautiful.
The thing he didn't say is that most people who aren't familiar with the oceans power just panic as soon as they lose their feet and start step laddering, and that unless you have some kind of floatation aid you can drown yourself/they drown you trying to save them. So the rule should be that unless you are at a patrolled beach, just don't go in past your ankles. Between the flags or don't go out. Simple.
This happens way too often, every summer down here, probably the same everywhere. The clubbies get a lot of money. Every Club down here has upgraded their facilities big time recently. My old local got a huge upgrade recently, seemed more interested in creating a huge bar/ local private Pub, than promoting water safety, particularly for foreign language speakers. I've never seen any signage or info for them. Just gotta watch one episode of Bondi Rescue to see the problem.(Those guys are legends btw, the shit they have to deal with.)
And the boogie kids without flippers, so true. Had a panicking mother approach me on the beach a couple of years back while I was getting my wettie on, kid getting floated out past the lineup. When I got to him he was done, stuffed. No way he was getting himself to shore. When his father came up to thank me he was a bit taken aback when I just yelled at him to "Buy your kid some fkn flippers mate".
Anyway, good on you. Reckon surfers save so many lives on our coast, just because they are usually always closest when shit goes down. We should all do those courses or teach them.
Yep very sad. That beach has signage saying how dangerous it is, it's exposed, it's powerful.
Still...they were young, doing what young crew do...
It's frustrating.I've had to basically yell at a mum and dad letting their two young daughters, under 10, play in a surging shorebreak.It appeared safe between sets, but outside was 15foot plus, and when a set came the water went from waist deep to 2metres above that height and the current headed straight out into open water. If they got swept out, they'd never be seen again. The parents had no idea. When i told them to call them in they just nodded and said nothing. I told them, now. They had no idea the danger they were in and i wasn't gonna watch them drown. They finally did, and sure enough, big set came, water came surging across the shelf, nearly knocked the lot of them off their feet on dry sand, before the huge pile up of water exited out to sea, where the girls would have been heading if they hadn't come in. Even if i had a board, i wouldn't have been able to get to them if they got swept out.
Early intervention can save lives.
Some research has been done into surfers saving lives. 250 people rescued in 2 years of the study, of which only a small portion of total surfers participated in.
https://www.latrobe.edu.au/news/articles/2023/release/surfers-save-hundr...
Good on you Rocky and Blackers and SR, yep I've done a few rescues and tried to explain all the currents, rips, hazards etc. Told story of best one here where my young one & I did a 7pm rescue at 4ft messy hi tide Juc. The two kids were unfamiliar, perhaps new to the country, the boy could swim well which helped us.
Good on you as well for teaching the pitfalls of body boards ;)
Jokes aside, they get ripped if no flippers and taken off a sandbank by a rip! They can go a surprisingly long way out. Usually the kids are a bit scared but reassured when you get to them. When you tell them how to get in (paddle parallel to coast out of the rip into the impact zone, then in for eg around here in places) they usually try to kick along with you, or I'd sometimes make it fun with a leggie tow.
The other summer holidays craft that is crazy dangerous is the inflatable rubber doughnut, with crew lazing on them then having the offshore blow the doughnut out to Tassie, leaving them with a big swim agains the wind and current at times, especially when they lose said doughnut. Substitute for inflatable thongs, unicorns, killer whales, etcetc. These things are pool toys.
Most of the people I see getting in trouble or potentially getting in trouble at Phillip Island are Indian. Someone should reach out to the Indian community and get their advice on what type of signage would get their attention. There are warning signs at all the beaches but currently being ignored.
As was the case with the 4 who sadly drowned yesterday. I don't have the solution, and I'm just not sure how much attention they'd pay to any signage. I was surfing a bank along a long unpatrolled stretch of beach the other week, right near where an Irish tourist drowned over NY's, and there were a group of Indian's swimming, some in tshirts. I warned them as politely as I could about swimming there with the rips as I came in, and noticed they just ignored me and kept swimming as I packed up and drove off home. Can't do much but shake my head at it.
Last few years more and more and large family groups. mobiles and tourist promos for the wooly beach walk have had a hand to i guess, then youve got the keen fishoes who are also often tourists or new Australians. last year there was a few drownings along P.I Kilcunda too. But backside of that sort of categorization was what happened to my family one day. Took the missus and 2 upper primary aged kids(who all know how to surf) to play in the rockpools whilst we waited for the tide to make the best of the 2ft swell. It was mega low and you could almost walk out to where the little peelers were breaking. We were snorkling around in the pools when old mate booger decided he didnt like the look of us, especially my Japanese wife, and started a tirade of how we dont belong there and to get out. Thanked him at first and that we're all experienced and know how to surf. said to him check the rest of our gear under the umbrella and waiting for the tide. "im sick of rescuing people like you " blah blah blah. told him again to cool it, we know what the deal is. But he still went on and even got aggressive. Its like he sees an asian looking person and it sets him off. Missus got really upset and didnt want to be around him anymore. It ruined her day. Its one thing to be assertive and firm when you can spot potential danger , its another to be a fuckwit, shooting ya mouth off, ears closed because you don't like the look of someone. Interestingly haven't seen him there since. Not suggesting you are like that ofcourse, just reminded me of that day and some of the steriotyping. Would def be good to ave some signage in other popular languages. or education setups. And whoever made that point about lifesaving clubs more interested in setting up bars with all their new bling. Agree totally on that point.
sounds like a real jerk of a man Sam.
That’s awful, Sam. Sorry to hear it.
A bit better footage of the noah here, it's in really close:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13003523/Shark-warning-issued-f...
Unless that’s a 6 meter long JetSki it’s swimming past then there’s no chance that’s a 4 meter white.
2 meter long bronzey, maybe?
haha
Yeah I think so.
https://www.facebook.com/watch/?ref=search&v=915580833275698&external_lo...
No way that is 4m.
Saw one about that size at Portsea back beach a few years ago, it paid not attention to me at all, just chasing salmon in about chest deep water whilst I paddled out.
A 4m GWS is another proposition all together...brown shorts material
Around this time last year, my brother, his two young kids, and a mate went for a walk at Gunna around 6 or 7 in the afternoon. A Dad and his sons, one 17 the other maybe 20 were knee deep on a bank, swell was around 5ft and junky onshore. They got swept off the Dad and 17 year old were able to get helped in waste deep water the other son was swept out in the rip. My brother jumped in without even a second thought and swam out to help him. Ended up swimming and holding the guy up in breaking waves about 50m off shore for over 1/2 an hour trying to get in. Next thing the Dad was out there to help but was going under, my brother is not sure what happened in the chaos but he had to let go of the son to help the Dad and the son just sank and was never found. He spent another 20 min or so getting the Dad to shore.
Finally, a clubby paddled out on a board, but the Dad kept falling off, maybe 4 or 5 times he had to jump off the back swim under grab the Dad, and pull him back onto the board. When my brother got to shore he was completely cooked, couldn't even stand up, and broke down in tears. Rescuing someone with a board is one thing in the surf but just swimming is another and bloody dangerous, he is lucky he made it out alive.
Jeezus, that's so heavy eh :(
That's so sad, RIP to the young fella and your bro is a legend. It's difficult enough rescuing with a swim and trying to use one of those clubby float things and the line, swimming someone in even in calm conditions and with good fitness is hard. Perhaps a reason to always keep a board in the car if you are just driving by the coast or going to an isolated spot, it's much easier than a swim rescue.
So heavy. Great effort by your bro.