Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday January 22nd)

Best Days: Exposed beaches tomorrow morning, Surf Coast Friday morning and Saturday morning, Sunday morning, beaches Monday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Fading background S/SW swell tomorrow with E/NE tending N/NE winds, variable ahead of late E/SE-SE winds
• Tiny Wed and Thu with N/NW tending W/NW winds ahead of a strong S/SW change Wed, W/NW tending S/SW Thu
• Moderate sized mid-period W/SW swell building Fri with mod-fresh W/NW winds, tending strong SW late AM
• Peak in inconsistent W/SW groundswell Sat with moderate W/NW tending gusty S/SW-SW winds late AM
• Easing surf Sun with W/NW-NW tending S/SE winds, variable to the east through the morning
• Easing swell Mon with gusty N/NE winds

Recap

The S/SW swell seen into the end of the week backed off rapidly through Saturday but conditions were great for the beaches and the Surf Coast offered fun 2-3ft sets early, 3-4ft to the east before fading through the day.

Yesterday was poor with an onshore change and small surf, similar today.

This week and weekend (23 - 28)

Looking at the week ahead, and tomorrow will be the pick for the beaches before the coast goes very quiet ahead of some good W/SW energy later Friday and more so the weekend.

A high will move in behind the trough responsible for the current S'ly winds and this will see conditions improve as winds shift around to the E/NE and then N/NE through the morning, tending variable into the afternoon.

Swell wise, some small background S/SW energy is due to be in the water, easing back from 2ft on the Surf Coast tomorrow and 2-3ft to the east.

Following this, a weak approaching front will shift winds N/NW-W/NW through the morning Wednesday before a S/SW change moves through the afternoon. There'll be no swell left in the water though and Thursday looks to remain tiny with W/NW offshores ahead of a S/SW change.

Looking at the swell due into the end of the week though and a strengthening frontal system that's currently projecting towards Western Australia is producing a fetch of strong W/SW winds. At the core of the fetch, bursts of gale-force winds are forecast during tomorrow, with the system weakening and breaking down on approach to us Wednesday and Thursday.

The frontal system will continue on its slow way through our swell window and across us on Friday afternoon and evening, with a moderate sized W/SW groundswell due to peak Saturday, generated by the initial stages, with weaker, mid-period energy building ahead of it Friday.

The Surf Coast should build through Friday and reach 3ft into the afternoon (if not bigger later) with 4-6ft sets developing to the east, while Saturday's peak should reveal stronger 3-4ft surf and 6ft+ waves respectively west and east of Melbourne.

Winds on Friday morning look favourable and moderate to fresh from the W/NW across the Surf Coast, shifting SW later morning, W/NW again Saturday morning and moderate in strength, gusty SW-S/SW from later morning into the afternoon.

The easing trend will be slow thanks to the prolonged and slow moving nature of the swell generating front, with light W/NW-NW winds expected again Sunday morning, more variable to the east ahead of S/SE sea breezes. Dropping 3ft sets are due on the Surf Coast, 4-6ft to the east with Monday being great to the east with smaller surf and gusty N/NE winds.

Longer term, more W/SW energy is on the cards the following week with workable winds. More on this Wednesday.