Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 24th October)

Best Days: Protected spots Surf Coast this morning, Saturday morning exposed beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate sized + S/SW swell tomorrow with strong S/SW winds
• Moderate sized + reinforcing S/SW swell for Fri AM, easing with light S/SE-E/SE winds (tending E/NE to the east) ahead of sea breezes
• Small, fading S/SW swell Sat with strengthening N/NE winds, tending N/NW into the PM
• Tiny Sun with light offshore winds and sea breezes
• Small W/SW swell for Mon AM with fresh NW tending W/SW winds
• Building, moderate sized mid-period W/SW swell Tue with strengthening W/NW tending W/SW winds

Recap

As discussed in Monday's notes, once the low linked to Sunday evening's and Monday morning's S'ly swell moved east and across Tasmania, it cut off the localised fetch of swell generating winds resulting in a rapid drop in size.

From 6ft to 1-2ft yesterday morning, the Surf Coast dropped the most with leftover 2ft waves to the east with early favourable winds before the strong winds kicked in.

This morning the swell from the next low is coming in from the west and isn't as big as expected, with the flukey nature of the fetch on the northern flank only producing 3ft to occasionally 4ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets. Conditions are clean but winds are due to shift W/SW later morning and strong SW into the afternoon.

This week and next (Oct 25 - Nov 3)

Today's swell has been generated by the northern flank of a mid-latitude low moving in from the west, but as it moves across us this afternoon, a quick fire fetch of strong to gale-force S/SW-S winds through our southern swell window.

A moderate + sized pulse of S/SW swell is due from this source later today and early tomorrow to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast, 6ft+ to the east but with strong S/SW winds.

This will then be followed by a polar front being drawn up from the south, generating an additional fetch of strong to near gale-force S/SW winds through our southern swell window until this evening. A reinforcing moderate + sized mid-period S/SW swell will be generated from this source for early Friday morning, easing back from 4ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft to the east.

Winds are due to ease rapidly during Friday, S/SE tending E/SE across the Surf Coast with lots of lump and bump, while to the east a light E/NE breeze will create improving conditions through the morning ahead of sea breezes. The swell will likely be very lumpy as well and too big for the exposed beaches.

Saturday morning still looks the pick with strengthening N/NE winds (tending N/NW into the afternoon) and easing S/SW swell from 2ft on the Surf Coast, 3ft to the east but fading through the day.

Sunday morning looks clean again but the swell will be tiny and bottoming out.

Later in the day but more so Monday, a small pulse of mid-period W/SW swell is due, generated by a weak mid-latitude front moving in under Western Australia late week. Size wise it doesn't look to get above 2ft+ on the Surf Coast and 4ft to the east as NW winds favour protected locations.

Longer term, a stronger Southern Ocean storm and cold outbreak being this mid-latitude front should generate large surf into the middle to end off next week, but winds look average as the high moves in behind the swell generating system, bringing S/SW winds. We'll have a closer look at this on Friday.