Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 21st August)

Best Days: Today, tomorrow morning, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate sized reinforcing W/SW groundswell this afternoon, easing temporarily tomorrow AM, ahead of some new, slightly bigger W/SW swell tomorrow PM, peaking Wed AM
• W/NW tending gusty S/SW-SW winds mid-late AM tomorrow, fresh but easing NW tending W/NW Wed
• Large spike of W/SW groundswell arriving on dark Wed, peaking overnight and easing steadily Thu while tending more SW
• Mod-fresh N/NW winds Thu (N-N/NE for a period to the east in the AM)
• Easing swell Fri with NW tending SW winds
• Large SW groundswell later Fri, peaking Sat with mod-fresh S/SW tending S winds
• Easing swell Sun with E/SE-SE winds

Recap

Saturday morning started a little slow but the mix of W/SW swells filled in through the morning coming in at a slow 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ to the east with fairly clean conditions across protected spots.

Yesterday was a little more organised and smoother with easing sets from 4ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets, clean all day and today looks great with a reinforcing pulse of mid-period W/SW swell that's holding 3-4ft west of Melbourne. To the east it's 5-6ft with cleaner conditions, doable across selected breaks that can handle the size.

Wait for these chunky sets Saturday

This week and weekend (Aug 22 - 27)

This morning's mid-period W/SW swell is due to be reinforced by a stronger pulse of W/SW groundswell during the day, providing more consistent sets in the upper range of what's currently being seen as winds shift N/NE and freshen to the east while holding from the N/NW on the Surf Coast.

The swell is expected to ease temporarily into tomorrow morning but hold 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft to the east, building again mid-late afternoon as the next pulse of W/SW energy arrives.

This slightly bigger swell has been generated by a great, broad fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds firing up between Heard Island and Western Australia late last week and on the weekend, producing a moderate to large W/SW swell for later tomorrow and more so Wednesday morning.

Stronger 3-5ft sets are due on the Surf Coast Wednesday morning with 6-8ft sets to the east, with a stronger W/SW groundswell due to arrive on dark, peaking overnight but showing the most size Thursday morning.

Firstly, coming back to the local winds tomorrow and an early W/NW breeze is due ahead of a trough and SW change mid-late morning, while Wednesday looks clean all day with fresh NW tending W/NW winds.

Looking at the larger pulse of W/SW groundswell for later Wednesday and Thursday morning, this will be produced by a 'bombing low' forming to the south-west of Western Australia today. That being a low dropping rapidly in surface pressure, at least 24hPa in 24 hours. We'll actually see this low drop 40hPa within 24 hours, from 979hPa early this morning to 939hPa tomorrow morning.

With such a rapid drop in central pressure, we'll see severe-gale to storm-force W/NW-W/SW winds winds forming around the core of the low as it tracks east-southeast through our swell window and broadens in scope.

This will result in a large spike of W/SW groundswell that looks to arrive on dark Wednesday, followed by swell from a slightly more SW angle Thursday morning. Sets to 5-6ft are due on the Surf Coast early (larger overnight), 8ft to the east, easing steadily through the day under gusty N/NW winds, that look to be N to the ease through the morning.

Friday looks cleaner and smaller with NW offshores, but a strong, strengthening trailing frontal progression looks to bring a SW change late morning and new large SW groundswell for Saturday.

We're looking at a great fetch of gale to possible severe-gale winds and large surf back to the 6ft range on the Surf Coast and 8ft to the east but with average winds as a high moves in behind Friday's change. This looks to bring S/SW winds on Saturday, SE on Sunday. We'll have a closer look at this on Wednesday and confirm.

As the swell eases winds look to shift from E to N favouring the beaches into early next week.