Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 2nd August)

Best Days: Today, exposed beaches tomorrow morning, keen surfers Friday, early Saturday Surf Coast, Sunday Surf Coast, Monday morning Surf Coast, Tuesday exposed beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing surf tomorrow with strong N/NE winds
• Building mix of inconsistent W/SW groundswell Fri and SW energy with strong N winds
• Building mid-period W/SW tending SW swell Sat with gusty W/NW tending W/SW winds mid-late AM
• Easing S/SW swell Sun with NW tending variable winds
• Moderate sized SW groundswell Mon with W/NW tending S/SW winds
• Easing swell Tue with N/NE tending E/NE winds

Recap

Large surf across all locations yesterday with a touch of lump on the Surf Coast with sets to 5-6ft on the magnets, best in the morning ahead of a shallow onshore afternoon change. To the east the swell was in the 8ft range, best in protected spots.

This morning the swell is easing but still chunky with great 4-5ft waves on the Surf Coast, 6ft to the east and we'll see winds remain favourable for both regions east and west of Melbourne.

This week and next (Aug 3 - 11)

The current swell will continue to ease into tomorrow along with stronger N/NE winds that may ease later in the day. This will favour selected beaches with easing 2ft to occasionally 3ft sets on the Surf Coast early and 4ft waves to the east, dropping to 1-2ft and 2-3ft respectively during the day.

Friday will see winds holding strong from the N'th all day, with a small to moderate sized, inconsistent and tricky W/SW groundswell on the build, generated by a strong but unfavourably aligned low that developed to the south-west of Western Australia on Monday.

The low is now broadening while weakening, with a patchy fetch of strong to gale-force W/NW and S/SW winds being generated through our swell window.

What this will result in is a mix of inconsistent W/SW groundswell and some better aligned SW energy that are expected to build through the day Friday, reaching 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft to the east. The timing is a little unsure but the afternoon looks more likely than the morning for the most size.

Those strong N'ly winds will create tricky conditions so lower your expectations.

Now, the trough that was due to bring an onshore change Saturday is now forecast to form a low pressure centre west of us on Friday, with it being quite intense.

The low is due to be slow moving, generating a fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW-SW winds through our swell window Friday afternoon through Saturday morning, producing a moderate sized pulse of W/SW-SW swell for Saturday.

Building surf to 4ft+ is likely on the Surf Coast Saturday afternoon and 6ft+ to the east along with gusty W/NW tending W/SW winds.

Sunday looks the pick with a light NW offshore, tending variable into the afternoon and easing S/SW swell from 3-4ft on the sets to the west, 5-6ft to the east.

Now, besides a moderate sized pulse of SW groundswell Monday, the longer term outlook is slower with no significant swell generating storms developing in our medium to close-range swell windows for next week.

So coming back to Monday's swell, a strong polar low is due to form east of the Heard Island region tomorrow, generating a great fetch of W-W/NW gales. The low will weaken well south of Western Australia, producing an inconsistent but good SW groundswell to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast Monday morning, easing later and 6ft to the east.

Morning W/NW winds will give into a shallow S/SW change through the day with N/NE tending E/NE winds Tuesday as the swell fades, favouring the exposed beaches.

Following this it's slower so make the most of the current swells.