Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 14th July)

Best Days: Tomorrow Surf Coast, Sunday Surf Coast, Monday, Tuesday morning Surf Coast, Wednesday, Thursday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small-moderate sized, mid-period W/SW swell for later today and tomorrow morning, with a touch bigger increase later tomorrow
• NW tending W/NW winds tomorrow (fresher W/SW to the east)
• Moderate sized + SW groundswell building Sun PM, easing slowly Mon
• Moderate to fresh NW winds, easing Sun, fresh N/NW Mon
• Easing surf Tue with strong N/NW tending W/NW winds ahead of a SW change
• Moderate levels of W/SW swell mid-late next week with increasing N winds ahead of a W change

Recap

Yesterday's inconsistent W/SW groundswell was just that and came in a little under expectations with surf mostly to 3ft+ on the Surf Coast though a strong 6ft to the east. Wind were favourable for plenty of locations, while this morning the swell is easing with the beaches fairing best on the Surf Coast, while to the east winds were a bit into the exposed breaks.

This weekend and next week (Jul 15 - 21)

With the flukier, inconsistent W/SW groundswell now on the way out, we've got a much more reliable flurry of strong activity moving in from the west, with a good, consistent run of swell due through the weekend and into early next week.

Firstly, some new mid-period W/SW swell is due this afternoon, generated by various fetches of strong to gale W/NW winds dipping east-southeast from Western Australia.

This should provide a touch more consistent 2-3ft waves across the Surf Coast later today, 4-5ft to the east, holding a similar size tomorrow morning.

Into the afternoon, a touch more size should be seen, originating by a weaker but better aligned fetch of W/SW winds moving in behind the mid-latitude frontal activity today. We may see sets pushing to 3ft+ and 4-6ft respectively through the mid-late afternoon along with a moderate NW tending weak W-W/NW breeze on the Surf Coast, W/SW to the east and fresher.

Of greater importance is the swell due through Sunday, with a great looking frontal system due to move in under the country today and tomorrow. A fetch of gale to severe-gale W/NW winds will be closely followed by W/SW gales, racing east and then weakening while pushing across Tasmania tomorrow evening.

This should produce a moderate + sized SW groundswell for Sunday/Monday, building to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast mid-late afternoon and 6-8ft to the east. The morning looks smaller and to 3-4ft and 6ft respectively and persistent NW winds (light afternoon) will create clean conditions all day.

The swell should still be a similar size Monday morning, easing from 4-5ft on the Surf Coast magnets and 6ft to occasionally 8ft to the east under fresh N/NW winds, smaller Tuesday with strengthening N/NW winds ahead of a shift to the W/NW and SW change early-mid afternoon.

Looking at the rest of the week and strong but dissolving frontal activity moving in under the country early next week looks to produce moderate sized pulses of reinforcing W/SW swell from Wednesday through Friday as winds slowly strengthen from the north before shifting westerly later week.

Beyond this the outlook remains active, but check back here Monday for the latest. Have a great weekend!