Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 5th June)

Best Days: Exposed beaches today and tomorrow for the desperate, Friday afternoon Surf Coast, Saturday, Sunday, Monday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Small, background SW groundswell tomorrow, fading Wed
• Strong N/NE winds tomorrow and Wed
• Freshening NW tending W/NW winds Thu
• Building mid-period W/SW swell Fri, peaking Sat AM with strong W/NW winds Fri, mod-fresh NW tending N/NW winds later Sat (N/NE to the east later PM)
• Large, inconsistent SW groundswell building Sat, peaking in the evening, easing Sun with strong N-N/NE winds
• Easing surf Mon with strong N-N/NE winds

Recap

Saturday morning offered fun waves on the Surf Coast with an easing S/SW groundswell from 3ft to occasionally 4ft, solid to the east and with light winds before a trough brought a shallow SE change through the afternoon.

Yesterday was average on the Surf Coast with E winds and a small start to the day ahead of a new pulse of S/SW groundswell, better to the east for the keen and experienced.

This morning we've got great conditions for the exposed beaches with an easing S/SW swell back from a peaky 3ft to the east and 2-3ft on the Surf Coast. The swell will continue to ease through the day as winds hold from the E.

Peaky, fading surf today

This week and weekend (Jun 6 - 11)

The coming forecast period is a tricky one, with the swell due to bottom out over the coming days ahead of some tricky W'ly swell later week and stronger groundswell into the weekend from the SW.

Looking at tomorrow and some background SW groundswell from an off axis fetch of NW gales moving through our swell window on the weekend should provide infrequent 1-2ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets tomorrow, 2ft+ to the east.

We'll see a weakening mid-latitude low followed by a broader, stronger mid-latitude frontal progression pushing in from the west, squeezing a high in the Tasman Sea, bringing strong N/NE winds tomorrow, holding Wednesday as the swell fades and bottoms out.

The strong mid-latitude frontal progression pushing up and into Western Australia won't be overly well structured and be too far north of our swell window to generate any decent W'ly swell, with Thursday morning due to remain tiny.

What we should see into the evening on Thursday is the mid-latitude frontal progression dipping south and moving in and across us, bringing NW tending W/NW winds ahead of stronger W/NW winds on Friday.

A slow moving fetch of strong W/SW winds should generate a new mid-period W/SW swell that's expected to build Friday and peak Saturday morning.

The Surf Coast should build to 3ft through the day Friday with 4-5ft+ waves to the east, coming in a little stronger to 3-4ft and 5-6ft respectively Saturday morning.

Of greater significance is a stronger, long-period SW groundswell that's due to build through Saturday, strongest into the afternoon and peaking into the evening before easing Sunday.

The source of this swell will be a great polar low forming in the Heard Island region today, generating a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/NW winds. The low will weaken while drawing out in length and scope, stretching up towards Western Australia tomorrow evening and Wednesday.

As it does so, severe-gale W/SW winds will tend more SW and weaken, then projecting east into us as the frontal system moving through Friday.

So we'll see the groundswell arriving behind this front, building through Saturday and reaching an inconsistent but strong 5-6ft on the sets by dark, easing back from 4-5ft on Sunday morning. The Mornington Peninsula should reach 8ft later Saturday, easing back from 6-8ft on Sunday morning.

Now, with the frontal system on Friday clearing to the west on the weekend, followed by another weak front pushing under Western Australia, we'll see winds holding from the NW most of the day on the Surf Coast Saturday, tending N/NW later, while to the east, winds should tend N/NE into the afternoon.

Sunday will then see stronger N-N/NE winds, favouring selected breaks, similar Monday but with the swell easing further.

Longer term we're looking at more mid-latitude frontal activity focussed towards Western Australia, with the Victorian region relying on smaller W'ly swell energy. More on this Wednesday.