Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 31st May)

Best Days: Today, keen surfers protected spots tomorrow morning, Friday, Saturday morning, Monday morning, Tuesday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Large SW groundswell building tomorrow with pre-dawn, strong SW winds, shifting W/NW for a period in the AM on the Surf Coast
• Large, easing S/SW groundswell Fri with N/NW tending N/NE winds
• Smaller Sat with local, light N winds, tending SE into the PM
• Moderate sized + S/SW groundswell filling in Sun, peaking through the middle of the day/early PM
• Moderate E/NE tending E/SE winds Sun and Mon
• Easing S/SW groundswell Mon
• Smaller Tue with E/NE-NE tending E/SE winds

Recap

Yesterday provided more pumping surf with clean, easing sets from 4-5ft on the Surf Coast, 6ft+ to the east, while this morning there's a touch more north in the wind and smaller 3ft+ and 4-5ft waves respectively. Winds will hold out of the N/NW all day as the swell continues to ease.

Check out my review of the autumn just gone and why the Surf Coast is back in form: Autumn Review: Back In Black

This week and next (Jun 1 - 9)

The low point in swell will only be temporary today, with the next large swell due to fill in quickly tomorrow.

This is being generated by a great frontal progression that developed south of Western Australia yesterday, with rolling fetches of W/SW gales moving slowly through our south-western swell window, on top of each other.

The front will clip us early tomorrow morning, bringing a strong SW change before dawn, but we'll see winds tip around to the W/NW on the Surf Coast for a period before reverting back to the SW. With this conditions are likely to be lumpy and not perfect, especially compared to the recent run.

The swell will build rapidly and reach an easy 6ft through the afternoon on the Surf Coast, 8ft to the east, with Friday due to ease back from a similar size range.

Winds will improve rapidly ahead of a mid-latitude low moving in through the Bight, swinging light N/NW Friday morning and then N/NE into the afternoon. This should provide plenty of options for the experienced, with Saturday becoming more manageable, easing back steadily from 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ to the east.

Winds look favourable again and light, locally offshore from the N, tending SE and increasing later as a trough moves in.

This low will see winds continuing to feed in from the E/NE on Sunday morning, shifting E/SE through the day along with a new, moderate sized + long-period S/SW groundswell.

The source of this swell is a strong, tight polar low with a fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds due to move through our south-western and then southern swell windows tomorrow and Friday.

Strong 4-5ft sets are due on the Surf Coast, with 6ft to possibly 8ft waves to the east, possibly a little undersized at dawn but in my mid-late morning.

The swell will ease through Monday from 3ft and 4-5ft respectively with similar E/NE winds in the morning, E/SE through the afternoon.

Following this, next week looks slow as the mid-latitude low combined with a blocking high to its south, prevents any major swell generating systems from firing up towards us. Winds look to be favourable for exposed spots with winds out of the north-eastern quadrant along with small background pulses of groundswell. More on this in Friday's update.