Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 8th March)

Best Days: Today, Thursday, Friday morning, Saturday morning all locations, Tuesday morning exposed beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Mod-large mid-period S/SW swell for tomorrow AM, easing slowly
• Gusty W/NW-NW winds, tending W-W/SW through the late PM tomorrow
• Lighter W/NW winds Fri AM ahead of S/SE sea breezes
• Smaller S/SW swell Sat with local offshore winds ahead of sea breezes and a later S/SW change
• Small mid-period S/SW swell Sun, with a slightly better pulse for Mon AM but with freshening S winds Sun, lingering Mon
• Easing surf Tue with N/NE tending SE winds

Recap

Yesterday's initial W/SW swell came in a little better than expected with fun 3ft waves on the Surf Coast magnets with all day offshore winds.

Today our bigger and better pulse of mid-period SW swell is filling in with clean 4-5ft waves on the Surf Coast, and a peak to 4-6ft due through the day. Winds are great and are expected to shift W/NW through the morning, then hold out of the W through the afternoon (fleeting W/SW at times).

This week and weekend (Mar 9 - 12)

Following today's peak in mid-period SW swell, thanks to a great fetch of strong to gale-force SW winds projecting up and into us since Monday evening.

One final significant front on the backside of a broad, Southern Ocean gyre is generating an additional fetch of strong to gale-force S/SW-SW winds through our southern swell window today, producing a reinforcing pulse of moderate to large S/SW swell for tomorrow.

Satellite view of the Southern Ocean gyre, note the cold, specked air being advected from the south

The Surf Coast should still come in at 4-6ft on the magnets, with 6ft+ sets to the east and winds look great. A gusty W/NW-NW offshore is due most of the day, possibly shifting W-W/SW later afternoon.

The easing trend will be slowed into Friday, the weekend and early next week owing to weaker but persistent fetches of SW winds being projected through our south-western and southern swell windows right up until Saturday evening.

This will be thanks to the slow moving nature of the weakening, Southern Ocean gyre, with the Surf Coast due to ease slowly from 4ft Friday morning with 5-6ft sets to the east, a little smaller and holding 2-3ft and 4ft+ respectively Saturday. It looks like wave heights will maintain this size Sunday, with a final pulse Monday morning to a more consistent 3ft on the Surf Coast, 4ft to occasionally 5ft to the east.

Lighter W/NW winds should create clean conditions to the west on Friday morning before sea breezes kick in, locally offshore Saturday morning from the N/NW on the Surf Coast and N/NE to the east ahead of sea breezes.

A trough moving in Saturday evening may leave lingering S'ly winds Sunday morning that will freshen through the day, persisting Monday, so make the most of Saturday morning.

Longer term the surf will ease Tuesday as winds swing back offshore, bottoming out into Wednesday/Thursday. Beyond this there's nothing too significant on the cards but check back here Friday.