Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 6th March)

Best Days: Keen surfers later tomorrow, Wednesday morning, Thursday morning, Friday morning, exposed beaches Saturday morning, early Sunday for the keen

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Weak, small-moderate sized W/SW swell tomorrow, building later
• Strong W/NW-NW winds tomorrow
• Mod-large mid-period SW swell for Wed with mod-fresh W/NW-NW winds, shifting W/SW-SW and freshening later morning
• Easing mod-large S/SW swell Thu with mod-fresh W/NW-NW winds, tending SW early afternoon
• Easing S/SW swell Fri with NW tending SW winds
• Low point in swell Sat AM with N tending SW winds
• New, small mid-period S/SW swell for later Sat, easing Sun with variable tending S/SE winds

Recap

The swell remained sizey into Saturday with a reinforcing S/SW groundswell maintaining 4ft sets across the Surf Coast and 4-6ft waves to the east, improving across the beaches through the day as winds swung more offshore and held into the evening.

Yesterday was smaller and cleanest to the west with easing 2-3ft sets, while the exposed beaches to the east were a little lumpy but workable and to 4ft.

This morning we're seeing a temporary low point in swell, ahead of some new, inconsistent SW groundswell later today, and building W/SW windswell.

This week and weekend (Mar 7 - 12)

The first in a series of lows and cold fronts due over the coming week is currently pushing in across us, attached to a slow moving Southern Ocean gyre which will bring a bout of cold and swell to the state.

This first front is generating a fetch of strong W/SW winds, with a weak increase in W/SW swell through this afternoon, easing tomorrow ahead of some renewal of weak W/SW swell energy through the afternoon as a secondary high riding front pushes in from the west.

All in all it looks to only be around 2-3ft on the Surf Coast, building a little later, weak and west so focus on Wednesday onwards. Winds will be favourable though and strong from the W/NW-NW all day.

Wednesday and Thursday will provide much better surf, both in size and power, as a strengthening polar front projects a fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW-SW winds up through our south-western swell window through this afternoon and evening, continuing through tomorrow.

Following this front, a secondary fetch of S/SW-SW winds projecting up and into us Wednesday will buffer the easing trend in swell through the end of the week.

Looking at Wednesday and we should see 4-6ft waves across the Surf Coast and 6-8ft sets to the east along with a moderate to fresh NW-W/NW breeze, shifting W/SW-SW later morning and freshening.

Thursday looks clean again with W/NW-NW winds, holding until early afternoon ahead of a SW change and with easing 4-6ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets, 6ft+ to the east.

Friday will become cleaner across the state as wind tip to the NW along with easing sets from 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east.

The swell is expected to bottom out into Saturday but with more favourable N'ly offshore winds, while Sunday will deteriorate as a surface trough slips in from the west, bringing increasing S/SE winds that might be variable early morning.

Swell wise a small pulse of mid-period S/SW swell is expected later Saturday, easing Sunday generated by a small fetch of W/NW winds firing up to the south-west of Tasmania on Friday.

It only looks to be 2ft to possibly 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4ft to the east, but with SW winds Saturday afternoon and those increasing S/SE winds Sunday. Regardless there should be a cleanish wave for the keen.

Longer term the outlook goes quiet so make the most of the coming energy.