Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 1st March)

Best Days: This morning, tomorrow morning Surf Coast, Saturday from mid-late AM on the beaches, Sunday morning all locations

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Temp low point in swell tomorrow AM, ahead of a building moderate sized mid-period SW swell, peaking Fri
• Light W/NW winds tomorrow, tending S/SW late AM and freshening 
• Gusty S/SE winds Fri
• Moderate sized S/SW groundswell arriving late AM Sat, peaking in the PM
• Pre-dawn, gusty E/SE winds Sat AM, easing and tending E/NE and then N/NE by late AM, giving into late sea breezes
• Easing S/SW swell Sun with N winds ahead of SE sea breezes
• Building windy surf next week

Recap

Monday afternoon provided plenty of size with a peak in SW groundswell but with poor, choppy conditions across all locations. The swell dropped back a touch into yesterday more to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft to the east but with winds continuing out of the S/SW, fresh in nature.

Today, the swell is slowly easing from the 3ft range on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east and lighter winds are creating workable options across most locations. Winds will freshen out of the SW and tend S/SW through the morning so make the most of the early clean conditions.

Decent conditions this AM

This week and next (Mar 2 - 10)

Looking at tomorrow, and a temporary low point in swell is due across all regions, but conditions will be clean across the Surf Coast with a light W/NW offshore, light SW to the east with 2ft to occasionally 3ft waves to the west and 4ft surf to the east.

Winds are due to shift S/SW and freshen from late morning along with some building mid-period S/SW swell, peaking through Friday.

The source of this moderate sized swell is back to back frontal systems firing up under the country the last few days. The first was weakest, while a secondary broader fetch of strong to sub-gale-force W/SW winds is now south-west of us, with the size due to build from later morning tomorrow.

An increase to 3ft+ is due through tomorrow afternoon on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east, peaking Friday to 3-4ft (consistent 4ft magnets) and 6ft respectively.

Unfortunately conditions will be poor with gusty S/SE winds on Friday, much better Saturday and improving across the beaches as pre-dawn, gusty E/SE winds ease and tend E/NE and then N/NE later morning, variable early afternoon ahead of late sea breezes.

Size wise, the mid-period swell will start to ease, but a reinforcing pulse of stronger S/SW swell is due to arrive late morning, peaking into the afternoon.

This will be generated by a tight fetch of SW gales on the backside of the progression, south-west of Tasmania tomorrow.

This will likely keep the beaches a little too big to be user friendly to the east, but the morning high tide should help. The Surf Coast may ease temporarily on Saturday morning but pulse back to 3-4ft with the new swell, with 4-5ft+ sets to the east at the peak (more 4-5ft in the early morning).

Sunday looks super fun as a trough brings a return to light N'ly winds as the S/SW swell eases from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4ft on the sets to the east. Sea breezes will create bumpy conditions into the afternoon.

Longer term we've got a strong cold outbreak forecast for the south-east of the country into next week.

This will be a slow moving gyre of windy, cold weather, with multiple lows and fronts expected to be projected up and across Tasmania. At this stage the swell looks sizey but lower in quality, best in protected spots but we'll have a closer look at this on Friday.