Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 9th November)

Best Days: Today, tomorrow on the beaches, early Friday for the keen Surf Coast, Saturday afternoon on the beaches, Sunday morning exposed beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate sized mid-period S/SW swell tomorrow, with stronger, inconsistent groundswell sets into the PM, easing slowly Fri
• Strong N/NE winds tomorrow, easing on dark
• Mod-fresh SW tending S/SW winds Fri (lighter and W/NW at dawn on the Surf Coast)
• Easing surf Sat with moderate S winds, tending variable into the PM
• Smaller Sun with fresh N/NE tending NW winds
• Strong W/SW winds Mon with a moderate sized, building SW swell into the PM, peaking Tue

Recap

The beaches and selected reefs continued to offer great conditions yesterday with a reinforcing mid-period S/SW swell and favourable winds that persisted into the afternoon east of Melbourne as a storm fired up to the west and fizzled while moving east.

Today the swell is similar in size but a little less consistent with sets in the 4ft range to the east of Melbourne and 2ft to occasionally 3ft to the west. Winds should remain favourable all day again for the beaches, likely tending lighter E/NE later this afternoon/evening.

The waves are still cooking this AM

This week and next (Nov 10 - 18)

After the last few days of great conditions and perfect sized waves for the exposed beaches, we've got some stronger swell energy that will likely over power things as winds don't really favour the Surf Coast reefs.

A strong polar low that formed in our far swell window on the weekend generated a healthy fetch of gales and some inconsistent SW groundswell that's due to arrive tomorrow afternoon, peak overnight and ease Friday.

Ahead of this, mid-period levels of moderate sized swell are due tomorrow morning, generated by weaker but persistent strong W'ly winds as the low continued east, under the country the past two days. The remnants of the low are now passing under Tasmania and we should see the swell coming in around a fairly consist 3ft on the Surf Coast tomorrow morning, 4-5ft to the east, with the groundswell for the afternoon pushing to 3ft to occasionally 4ft and 5-6ft on the sets respectively west and east of Melbourne.

Easing sets from a similar size are due on Friday, down further Saturday from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast magnets and 4ft to the east.

Looking at the local winds and a weakening mid-latitude low pushing in from the west will bring strong and gusty N/NE winds tomorrow, easing on dark, with a shallow SW change due into the evening/early Friday morning.

Conditions are a little dicey Friday with moderate to fresh SW tending S/SW winds due to develop shortly after dawn, but the Surf Coast should see a window of light W/NW winds.

Onshore S'ly winds (moderate) will persist into the start of the weekend as the trough clears to the east, and more variable breezes could develop through Saturday afternoon. We'll confirm this Friday.

Sunday is tricky as a broader, stronger and deepening inland low drops into the Bight off South Australia. This will see winds swing more N/NE and strengthen, shifting NW into the afternoon as the low moves further east.

Swell wise, the exposed beaches look to be small and easing from 3ft, small to tiny on the Surf Coast and to 1-2ft.

Moving into next week, the low will bring strong W/SW winds to the coast on Monday and also drag up a polar frontal system, generating moderate to possibly large sized S/SW swell for Tuesday/Wednesday.

As always GFS is going hardest regarding the strength and expected size, while EC has a weaker and less favourable swell producer.

If it goes EC's way the swell will be weaker and more south along with poor, strong S/SW winds on Tuesday, and if it goes the way of GFS, winds will be more westerly and the swell much better.

I feel we'll fall somewhere in between so check back here on Friday for a clearer idea on next week's developments.

Also in the mix through early to mid next week will be some healthy mid-period SW swell from a polar front pushing under the country this Friday and Saturday, but more on this in the next update.