Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 5th January)

Best Days: Beaches to the east from mid-morning tomorrow, exposed beaches Friday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing mix of moderate sized SE windswell and smaller mid-period SW swell tomorrow with fresh E/SE winds at dawn, easing and tending E/NE ahead of late afternoon sea breezes
• Easing mix of small swells Fri with local offshore N'ly winds ahead of a mid-late afternoon S/SW change
• Gusty S/SW winds Sat, lighter Sun
• Small-mod sized SW swell building Sun, peaking Mon with light-mod S'ly tending fresh S/SW winds
• Easing swell Tue with strong S/SE winds
• SE windswell Wed-Fri with strong E/SE-E winds

Recap

An average start to the day across both regions yesterday but with a touch more swell in the water. Conditions improved a little through the morning on the beaches to the east before stronger onshore winds kicked in after lunch.

Today the surf is a mess on the Surf Coast with a localised SE windswell and strong SE winds, bumpy and choppy to the east and best in semi-protected spots for the keen.

This week and next (Jan 6 - 14)

The second half of the week will see improving conditions across the state's exposed beaches but swell wise we'll be looking at a peaky mix of weak, easing surf.

Besides the localised SE windswell generated by strong SE winds through Bass Strait (right), we'll see some new, inconsistent mid-period SW swell energy in the water this afternoon and tomorrow morning, produced over the weekend.

Size wise the Surf Coast looks like it'll be quite solid and to 4-5ft+ tomorrow morning from the SE, easing through the day with 3-5ft sets to the east on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds at dawn don't look great and will likely be fresh from the E/SE, though they'll ease and tend lighter E/NE through the later morning and remain so into the mid-afternoon ahead of late sea breezes.

This will see improving conditions as the day progresses ahead of the sea breeze.

Friday looks clean across both regions with local offshore winds out of the north (N/NW Surf Coast and N/NE Mornington Peninsula) ahead of mid-late afternoon S/SW change.

The Surf Coast is likely to offer a peaky mix of easing swells from 2ft with 3ft sets to the east.

Conditions will deteriorate into the weekend as Friday afternoon's change and trough leaves gusty S/SW winds across the state on Saturday. We'll see winds ease into Sunday but likely linger out of the S/SW and swell wise, some new mid-period energy should start filling in.

The source of this swell and the best pulse for Monday morning is a broad polar low that's formed south-west of Western Australia. An initial off axis, strong to near gale-force NW winds will be followed by a better aligned fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds this evening and tomorrow.

This secondary fetch should generate the best pulse for Monday with the Surf Coast due to come in at a good 3ft, 4-5ft+ to the east, but with lingering S'ly winds, freshening from the S/SW through the day.

Unfortunately a ridge of high pressure moving in from the west Tuesday will see winds remain fresh from the S/SE into Tuesday and then back to the E/SE while strengthening Wednesday as another inland surface trough squeezes the high.

This looks to bring another episode of SE windswell to the Surf Coast with improving waves on the beaches later next week but with no significant SW swell energy. More on this Friday.