Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 8th November)

Best Days: Tomorrow ahead of the late sea breeze, early next week protected spots

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate sized W/SW swell tomorrow with variable offshore winds ahead of late afternoon SE breezes
• Easing W/SW swell Wed with mod-fresh SW-S/SW winds, strengthening through the day (possibly W'ly early Surf Coast)
• Easing surf with S winds Thur, small Fri with strengthening SE winds
• Building SW swell later Sun with fresh W/NW tending SW winds
• Mod-large mid-period SW swell Mon with W/NW tending fresh SW winds, easing Tue with similar winds

Recap

The swell picked up into Friday afternoon as onshore winds abated for the late session, but come Saturday morning the swell was small again, when a new pulse of mid-period W/SW swell was expected.

Conditions were great but the surf a slower 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula, 2ft on the Surf Coast, but the new swell pushed in nicely through the afternoon with 4-5ft sets on the peninsula and 2-3ft waves across the Surf Coast. Conditions remained favourable until a late afternoon change pushed through.

Yesterday was poor with onshore winds persisting in the wake of Saturday's change along with a drop in swell.

This morning a new pulse of mid-period W/SW swell has boosted wave heights a touch to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets and 3-5ft to the east. Conditions were clean in protected spots on the Surf Coast with a light W'ly, workable on the peninsula.

This week and weekend (Nov 9 - 14)

If you didn't manage to get a wave in Saturday or this morning, we've got one more window of fun waves tomorrow before winds turn for the worse for the remainder of the week.

We've also got a better pulse of mid-period W/SW swell due tomorrow, generated by a healthy frontal system that pushed in under the country on the weekend. A great fetch of W/SW gales were generated, and it looks like the models aren't picking up the swell as well as they could.

There should be quite a change in size and energy tomorrow morning with 3-4ft waves on the Surf Coast and surf in the 6ft range on the Mornington Peninsula, if not for the odd bigger sneaker across all regions.

This will make the beaches on the Mornington Peninsula less of an option but there'll be other spots to work with.

Winds look variable and locally offshore across both regions (N/NW Surf Coast and N/NE to the east) ahead of mid-late afternoon SE sea breezes as the swell starts to ease later.

Make the most of this swell and clean conditions as a trough will move in early Wednesday bringing moderate to fresh SW-S/SW winds, strengthening through the day. There's a chance for early W'ly winds on the Surf Coast but it's not worth driving far for.

A high will try and nudge in on Thursday, swinging winds to the S'th, creating poor conditions along with a small, easing mix of weak swells. As the high moves further east winds will shift SE Friday and strengthen through the afternoon, kicking up some small south-east windswell. There's also due to be some small, mid-period S/SW swell for the afternoon, generated by weak polar frontal activity over the coming days but it's not noteworthy (2ft Surf Coast and 3ft to the east).

Moving into the weekend (more so Sunday) we've got a bit of swell on the way as a strengthening polar frontal progression pushes up and and into us.

There's no real size due Saturday and winds will shift S'ly to W/SW as the front approaches, but come Sunday we'll see gusty W/NW tending SW winds as the front pushes in. It looks like there'll be no size through the morning when it's clean, but the afternoon should see building surf to 3-4ft late in the day on the Surf Coast and 6ft to the east.

Monday should see the peak in energy but it'll be mid-period energy due to the lack of gale-force winds in the polar frontal progression, coming in at 4-6ft on the Surf Coast and 8ft to the east. Still, with it not being groundswell it'll be good to see some size across the state again. We'll hopefully see morning W/NW winds, shifting SW mid-late morning though we'll confirm this over the coming updates.

The surf will ease into the middle of the week with favourable morning winds for the Surf Coast, though check back here Wednesday for a closer look.