Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 24th September)

Best Days: Today protected spots, Monday on the beaches, Tuesday morning on the beaches, Wednesday morning on the beaches, Thursday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Late increase in mid-period W/SW today with strong W/NW winds ahead of a larger SW groundswell tomorrow morning, easing thereafter. Strong SW winds tomorrow, likely lighter W'ly at dawn around Torquay
• Easing SW swell with light S/SE tending SE winds on the Surf Coast in the AM and light SE tending E/SE winds to the east ahead of fresh SE sea breezes
• Easing SW swell Mon with moderate to fresh N/NE tending fresh NE winds
• Small, mid-period SW swell for Tue with mod-fresh NE tending SE winds
• Small, mid-period SW swell continuing Wed with fresh E/NE tending SE winds
• Better S/SW swell Thu with variable tending SW winds, stronger S/SW on Fri

Recap

*side note: wondering why the Torquay surfcam is offline? Ben's got a comprehensive update on the situation here (tl;dr version is NBN outage)*

A great day of surf yesterday west of Melbourne with a building SW groundswell from an incredible progression of gale to severe-gale W/NW winds moving through our swell window earlier in the week.

The morning was 3-4ft, while the afternoon kicked to a larger 5-6ft across the swell magnets, poor and wind affected to the east but larger.

The swell has eased off a touch this morning but conditions are still great on the Surf Coast, and cleaner to the east, but winds will shift more W/NW as the day progresses.

This weekend and next week (Sep 25 – Oct 1)

Well, we've got one more large swell to come over the next few days, but it won't be anywhere near as clean as what we've seen the last couple of days.

The source of this swell is a strengthening low on the back of all the polar activity this week, with a fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds being projected up through our western and then south-western swell window today (right).

This will bring the strengthening W/NW winds today and provide a late increase in mid-period W/SW swell, with the groundswell due to be large and peaking tomorrow morning.

The Surf Coast looks to be around the 6ft range with 8ft surf to the east, though our strong SW breeze is still on track. There's a chance for early W'ly winds around Torquay at dawn but conditions will be lumpy and raw at anywhere exposed, with protected spots fairing best.

We'll see a strong high move in quickly from the west during the evening, allowing winds to really relax and ease off into Sunday morning. We're now looking a light S/SE winds across the Surf Coast and SE winds to the east, possibly even tending E/SE at times through the morning.

The swell will be on the ease from Saturday afternoon though, dropping further Sunday from the 4ft range on the Surf Coast, 5-6ft to the east. Fresh SE sea breezes will create average conditions into the afternoon.

Early next week is still shaping up really good for the beaches, with a mid-latitude low forming off the Western Australian South Coast due to push the high further east quickly, resulting in winds moving around to the N/NE on Monday morning, fresh at times and only NE into the afternoon. The swell will be smaller and easing from 2ft+ or so on the Surf Coast, 3-4ft to the east and mid-period energy.

Our small lift in inconsistent, mid-period swell for Tuesday is still on track, generated by a relatively weak polar front moving in from the south-southwest of Western Australia over the coming days (shown as well in the image above).

It's not expected to offer much above an inconsistent 2ft wave on the Surf Coast, 3ft to possibly 4ft on the Mornington Peninsula but with a moderate to fresh morning NE breeze, shifting SE into the afternoon.

Wednesday morning looks a similar size, while a slightly better S/SW swell may be seen later in the day but more so Thursday. The source of this will be a slightly broader and stronger polar frontal system moving through Sunday evening and Monday, providing better 3ft sets across the Surf Coast, 4ft to possibly 5ft to the east on Thursday.

Winds on Wednesday will continue to favour the beaches, with the mid-latitude low pushing in while slowly tracking south-east bringing fresh E/NE tending SE winds, with variable tending SW winds Thursday as we fall under the backside of the low.

The low may strengthen south of Tasmania on Friday, bringing strengthening S'ly winds across our region, but we'll review this on Monday. Surf wise it looks like we'll enter a quieter period with this mid-latitude activity, blocking our immediate swell windows while there's nothing significant due from our far swell windows. Therefore make the most of today and the coming waves early next week! Have a great weekend.