Poor run of winds and surf until Tuesday
Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 3rd September)
Best Days: Tuesday mid-late morning ahead of the change, Wednesday, Thursday
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Moderate sized, reinforcing W/SW groundswell for late tomorrow with strengthening S'ly winds
- Easing W/SW groundswell Sun with fresh S/SW tending stronger SW winds
- Easing W/SW swell Mon with fresh to strong SW winds
- Mod-large SW groundswell building Tue, peaking late, easing Wed
- Additional moderate sized SW groundswell for later Tue, easing Wed
- Moderate W/NW tending strong SW winds Tue, fresh NW Wed and stronger N/NW Thu
Recap
Wednesday evening showed promise with stronger levels of W/SW swell pushing in across all regions, coming in at 4-5ft+ on the Surf Coast magnets and 6ft+ to the east, but alas, the stronger and best pulse of W/SW groundswell due yesterday didn't materialise.
While being generated by the strongest part of the fetch pushing up and under Western Australia, the westerly nature and timing looked to maybe have been the issue, with it peaking into the evening and then easing back from a slow 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Surf Coast magnets yesterday morning, 5-6ft and pumping to the east.
Conditions were windy and best across the beaches with a warm, strong northerly pushing in ahead of a trough this morning. This trough has brought stormy, humid weather this morning with lightning, fog and a cracker sunrise ahead of a change that's due to move in across all locations by mid-late morning.
A reinforcing W/SW groundswell has kept 3ft sets hitting the Surf Coast this morning, 4-5ft to the east.
This weekend and next week (Sep 4 - 10)
An unstable trough is currently edging its way in from the west, and once it moves across us proper it'll bring fresh SW-S/SW winds and a run of onshore winds that will persist until next Tuesday.
The reason for the prolonged run of onshores is a slow moving high moving in behind today's trough, sliding in from Western Australia while cold fronts continuing to push up towards us, on its southern flank. This will prevent it fully filling in, with strengthening S'ly winds due tomorrow, S/SW tending SW on Sunday.
This will spoil a new W/SW groundswell that's due to arrive later tomorrow afternoon across the state, generated by the final frontal system in the progression seen this week south-west and south of Western Australia.
Size wise, we're likely to see a temporary low point in swell tomorrow morning and early afternoon ahead of the new swell, building to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast magnets and 6ft on the sets to the ease, easing through Sunday.
Monday will unfortunately continue to see fresh to strong SW winds as the weekend's W/SW groundswell continues to drop in size.
Of greater importance though is the moderate to large SW groundswell due into Tuesday/Wednesday across the state as winds improve.
The source of this swell is a strong polar low that formed around the Heard Island region last night. This low will move slowly east through our swell window over the coming days, generating severe-gale W/NW winds, weakening to the gale-force range south of Western Australia Saturday evening.
This should produce a moderate to large SW groundswell that's due to arrive Tuesday morning and build into the afternoon. The Surf Coast looks to be 2ft to possibly 3ft in the morning, building to 4-5ft into the late afternoon, with 3-4ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula, building to 6ft+.
The additional swell from a tight low forming on the back of the polar low is still on track, with an additional fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds generated off axis but in our close-range south-western swell window, south-west of Tasmania Monday.
This should generate some additional, more consistent and slightly smaller sized swell for late Tuesday, with both swells easing Wednesday from 4ft on the Surf Coast and the 6ft range on the Mornington Peninsula.
We'll finally see the high moving in and across us through Tuesday and Wednesday, pushed by a strong, south-east sliding in from the west.
This will bring W/NW winds on Tuesday morning, shifting strong SW into the afternoon, NW Wednesday and likely holding most of the day. Thursday will see stronger N/NW winds as the surf continues to ease back from the 3ft range on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft to the east.
Longer term we've got a few different swell sources on the cards but we'll have a closer look at this on Monday. Have a great weekend!
Comments
I’ve stopped counting how long it’s been since I’ve seen a wave.
I’m content at times until I remember I can’t go to the beach and who knows when the next session will be....
What’s everyone’s thoughts on when a COVID dog like myself will see the ocean again?
80% double vacation?
Where are you frodge?
To answer your question, who knows?? Hopefully sooner rather than later for you.
Just curious do you find that coming on here and looking at the forecasts and reading about surf news etc makes things harder. Or is it good to stay connected in some way?
SE suburbs. 50min to Peninsula, 50min to the tub, 1.5hrs to surfcoast.
I’ve stopped reading the forecast notes - usually I hang to read them.
I like reading the comments under the notes though - it gives me an idea of what is going on and a laugh.
I haven’t watch episode 3 of lost track though - I’m saving it for better times.
70% double vax mark is an outside chance (4-6 weeks time), but yeh 80% most likely which won’t be far behind. And hopefully then lockdowns will be a thing of the past!
When Melbourne surfers are allowed to travel, I reckon I won't surf for a month or two. Firstly it's going to be mayhem. Secondly, it's been a pretty good winter, and those doing the right thing deserve a quieter lineup.
Get vaxxed, get pitted blokes.
Got a bay sesh in late today. Unexpected, which makes it even better. Water was pretty festy after all the rain from yesterday but I’ve still got a nice buzz on from surfing 6 inch to 1ft wind chop.
That's awesome commitment. All the power to ya!!
Desperate times call for desperate measures. Good job!
D.S. in the Bay Bnkref?
Indeed! Goes really well in the small stuff and have been using it for longer flat water paddles. Did 10km last weekend.
With all the lockdowns here I’ve only ridden it in solid stuff a couple of times. Had no idea when I bought it that it would be getting a flogging in the bay!
That's great news Bnkref, well done. I've done the drive a couple of times and noted locations. Grew up on Swan river so have mindsurfed thousands of tiny barrels, how I wished they were surfable! (I believe crew have surfed South Perth Kwinana Fwy foreshore on extreme Wly winds)
Happy Fathers Day to all the dads out there. No surf so enjoy your kids. If you have the opportunity to become a dad, take it, as the rewards far outweigh any imagined negatives. Having a surf with them is just so much fun. If they don't surf, it's still so much fun. To all the dads in lockdown, hang in there, the nightmare will end and the surf will still be there.
Yep, the surf will be back.
I found above 7 being a Dad things got fun ("Can I go pat the sea lion, Dad?"), but the most awesome times occurred at 13-15yo - they think they are invincible. So you get things like "I want to paddle further out than anybody else!", it becomes "I want to catch the biggest wave,", then this becomes surfing double overhead together, "Why can't anyone else get out?" - there's the mad rock jumps where you turn back around and they've already gone and are half way out; then they get their wings in the snow and are doing double head and a half jumps, or extreme terrain that's covered in trees... then they try and trick you into following them into a half pipe etc...
Now I watch as they paddle rings around me, great strength in shoulders/arms. It's their time now. Lockdowns will end and off they will go into some pretty cool adventures with their friends.
Sounds like you're breeding real chargers there VJ. Good on you (and the kids).
I prefer being single with multiple girls on the go so I can keep travelling from coast to coast with no restriction
You could actually be having multiple father's days and not even know it. Nice work :)
I’ve been in Guitar Mode and Never watch the News. So have we had a Reported transmission via Surfing Yet? Or is Driving to the Beach and Shark Attack still our most likely Route to Death.
Still waiting on the reported transmissions via golf myself (and I don't even like golf)