Great surf over the coming few days
Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 6th August)
Best Days: Saturday Surf Coast, Sunday, Monday, exposed beaches for the keen Tuesday morning, Thursday and Friday Surf Coast
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Mod-large SW groundswell for tomorrow with gusty NW tending W/NW winds, then SW mid-afternoon
- Slow, easing SW swell Sun with a reinforcing, mid-period S/SW swell for the PM. N/NW tending NE winds west of Melbourne, N tending NE to the east
- Easing S/SW swell Mon with moderate N/NE winds (N/NW early on the Surf Coast), smaller Tue with strong N winds
- Late increase in inconsistent W/SW groundswell Wed, peaking Thu with strong NW winds
- Possible bigger SW groundswell for late Fri and next Sat with W/NW winds
Recap
Lumpy, weak leftover waves across both coasts yesterday with 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast, best in protected spots and bumpy 3-5ft waves to the east. Later in the day some new SW groundswell started to show and this has held in this morning with good 4ft waves on the Surf Coast (though still with some lump/wobble) and 5-6ft sets to the east.
Winds should remain favourable all day for protected spots, only tending W/NW into the afternoon.
This weekend and next week (Aug 7 - 13)
This morning's SW groundswell was the first and smallest of two due through the coming days, with a secondary stronger, larger swell due to fill in tomorrow.
These swells were generated by back to back frontal systems tracking east-southeast from the southern Indian Ocean before spawning into polar lows under the country, tracking more favourably east through our south-western swell window.
The second system was stronger and broader than the first, and also acting on the active sea state ahead of it, producing a larger, longer-period SW groundswell for tomorrow.
The Surf Coast should come in at 4-6ft across the swell magnets with 6-8ft surf to the east and with an early fresh NW breeze, shifting W/NW through the morning and then SW mid-afternoon.
As touched on in the updates during the week, the longevity of the swell will be drawn out owing to weaker, strong to gale-force W/SW winds stretching out behind the polar low, currently stretching from south-west of Tasmania to well south of Western Australia.
Along with this, a slight intensification of winds this evening and tomorrow morning will generate a reinforcing mid-period S/SW swell pulse for Sunday afternoon.
Size wise, the Surf Coast should be 3-5ft Sunday, with 6ft+ sets to the east, easing only slightly through the afternoon, then easing Monday from the S/SW with dropping sets from 3ft+ and 4-5ft respectively.
Winds will become more favourable for more exposed locations from Sunday, with a morning N/NW breeze due on the Surf Coast, shifting NE into the afternoon with N tending variable NE winds to the east. Phillip Island may see weak sea breezes.
Monday will be great for the beaches with the easing swell and persistent N/NE winds (N/NW for a period in the morning on the Surf Coast).
Stronger N/NE winds are still due Tuesday with the swell on the way out, easing from 2ft and 3ft respectively on the Surf Coast and Mornington Peninsula.
A low point in swell is expected Wednesday morning ahead of a late increasing in long-period and inconsistent W/SW groundswell, filling in proper on Thursday.
The source of this swell will be a significant polar frontal progression projecting up and across Western Australia this weekend before pushing east towards us in a much weaker form.
While being in our long-range and distant swell window, we'll see severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds generated, producing a strong, infrequent W'ly groundswell for Thursday. There'll be mid-period energy in the mix from the remnants of the storm pushing east through the Bight and we should see the Surf Coast coming in at 3ft with 4ft sets on the swell magnets, 5-6ft+ to the east.
Strong NW winds will favour the Surf Coast, similar Friday before tending W/NW into the afternoon.
Friday looks to start similar in size, but later in the day and more so Saturday we've got a strong SW groundswell on the cards from a deepening low under the country. More on this on Monday. Have a great weekend!
Comments
Cops already spotted in the car parks in Torquay sussing out the 5km from home rule.
anyone dumb enough to park in the car park deserves to get pinged
Good to hear.
Just about to walk 500 metres from home for a surf now.
Just about to walk 10 meters from my couch to take a shit.
Thanks for the laugh ;) It looked fun out there this arvo but far from epic, still plenty of people surfing, tomorrow's gonna be packed.
shame on you mate.
choosing to boast about how lucky you are when so many people are struggling is pitiful.
Try some humility and keep it to yourself
Agree, really poor form.
What’s “good to hear” anyway? Police resources would 100% be better utilised patrolling the west and north of Melbourne for parties where this shit is spreading rather than beach car parks where somebody might be surfing 10km from home
Yep. Fair call Jin.
If it's any consolation the waves were nowhere as good as the report on this website would have you believe. No shortage of crew either with plenty around here having nothing else to do. Will be busy as fuck here tomorrow.
Hope you get a few when this freak show is over.
None of the reports made it sounds great at all Ringy?
Ahh shit! Im on a roll today.....
Yeah....on 2nd read there's not much mayo on that morning report.
Just gave myself another uppercut.
Worst lock down forecast to date. At least last year the surf was average at best when we were locked down.
Time to stop reading the forecast notes for a little while.
Yep. I noticed the same. Don’t recall any previous FOMO to this extent. Haha - you’ll still check the reports.
Had the weekend planned for some mysto searches.. eagles, chicken etc for a bit of a boys trip
All now gone to hell. Looks like one of the better weekends for the year too
Enjoy it if you can get it
Good to see the boys in blue out in force this afternoon.
Bells carpark was super spreader event in the making, thanks boys in blue!
Gonna be alot of single bubble/intimate partner visits down torquay way tomorrow i'm guessing
Farkin good one VL go the men in blue, the cams on the Eastcoast’s northshore show 1/2 the surfers in Melb are breaking the 5km rule, fuck them hoping each one gets the $5,000 fine.
#thankshotmessgladys
#livingwithnsw’scovidinvictoria
5 minutes ago ....
In the past year, Melbourne lost its long-held status as the world's most liveable city.
Likely, that's due to every surfer in the metropolitan region downgrading their liveability rating from "workable" to "extremely poor"
All the extremely poor surf bums living out of there cars would be happier then pigs in mud. No address no travel restriction, easy loophole. The so called wealthy surfer from Melbourne bahaha would have got the fuck out of the city last year if they were true surfers
Lots of dogs running a muck with their masters out there followed by try hard Olympian surfers. Can't tell who is who, police will need help checking id's. Can't get a car park at bells. Surf not much better than yesterday
Geez tough crowd..
yep CB especially #ringlicker and #dicklocal 2 of victorias top 10 keyboard warriors. what kind of a person wants to call the police on people. and just for the record 4 police on day shift in torquay 27,000 people and people want them to spend time checking ids. what a joke they dont have time for that.
if you can read this message you are the resistance. stay tunned to this thred for more updates.pigdog
#ringlicker.
#dicklocal.
I've never written anything on here about cops patrolling ya fuckwit. Couldn't give a rats arse. I get plenty of surf week in week out when it's on around here regardless of lockdown or not.
Someone mentioned local cops checking plates around here yesterday and I said 'good to hear'. That's local cops working in their local community to try and deter people travelling.
Other than that go fuck yourself #Pigshit
Bahahahah took the bait hahaha
#ringlicker
Internet kook throwing out 'bait'.
Great work! You win!
so....was it actually any good?
Regale me!
I'm locked down in the city, with a broken toe and out of the water for at least another 2-4 weeks.
p.s. The wife and I are doing some real estate hunting down the coast. We love the city (and possibly would probably buy a house here if we could) but are finally starting to seriously planning our family move closer to the waves.....and all I can say is far out it aint cheap. Any of you crew owning a splice of land down there (Torquay) would be doing pretty well nest egg wise....also yes I'd imagine it helps with all this 5km from home malarkey.
No today was very slow and fat no where would’ve been good
I had a fun little mal surf on some knee high peelers. Had to go to a swell magnet to find them though.
Seems like all the action was over in Westernport...!
Not sure what it was like around Torquay/ Bells area (report said, very good, 8/10) but down the GOR it was decent size but a bit fat and not lined up all that well from what I saw. Plenty of waves, but a bit disappointing. I'm sure there were plenty in lockdown who would have been happy to be surfing it though.
Bells area didn't look that good to me at 6:30am, within my 5km, but was banged up early.
However, the carpark was busy with plenty of business vehicles with addresses beyond the coast? Of course, this doesn't mean they're are necessarily out of their residential zone but it does support the argument.
I have seen little to no police presence for ages, not a normal booze bus etc in sight & one random compliance check on the Surfcoast highway in 18 months.
Plenty of #vanlife crew just hanging out wherever they want. I'm guessing they just get moved along to the next town/state without consequence. I cant blame them; if I was young and free I would be nomadic right now too. Respect to them.
Be nice to each other please.......... we might not ALL be in this together, but we can all relate to the frustration. I am employed, can surf locally and have support. Be grateful and compare down.
;)
Everyone is living out of there cars because you know the goverment has just butchered the economy and there is a housing crisis. It would be inhumane for the council to fine them so they don't. If your too nice around here surfers in the water will take advantage of that and snake you. Common sense can be hard to understand for some people. All the Geelong pigs must be up in Melbourne or spread out to more regional vic
What an absolute dick
Yes. Surfing in crowds is essentially an entitlement debate, with the following justifications which should be familiar to most.
1) I live here
2) I live closer than you
3) I have lived here since.......
4) I was born here
5) I surf here more often
6) I know everybody
7) I worked all day and you did not
8) I only have an hour to surf
9) I'm on holiday, whereas you can surf here everyday
10) And the best one - I'm a better surfer than you
The list goes on..................
IMO - anyone with decades of experience, ageing and still paddling around in these lineups with these attitudes has evolved very little as a surfer/ocean user.
That sounds more like the rules you obey in line ups like pipeline or get ur ass beat. On the surfcoast it's more like whoever paddles the deepest to sit in the right spot wins. Don't matter what I look like or where you come from. Hats of to any kook who has the ability to consistently paddle around me and get good waves, just don't fall off and blow the wave like most others
Well unfortunately I didn't get to surf yesterday but it gave me time to get my 2nd jab. They gave me a big sticker 'Covid-19 Vacinated' hopefully that means I won't die if I still contract this covid shit.
Yesterday was just big enough to scare off the muppets. Today was an absolute shitshow.
The lineup was jammed with serial pests on mid-lengths and enormous boards.
Is there anything more pathetic than some beginner-intermediate dropping into a 4ft wave on a 8 ft board to the hoots of his kook mates?
Afterwards, mr 8ft board kook paddles up to the top of the lineup and catches the next 4ft set.
Farkkkk me, you're not killing it you fucking clown. You're just a greedy dog using foam as a weapon.
May as well move to Byron and surf with the hipster carnts up there. At least the water is warmer.
Yeh VL, unfortunately it's becoming standard practice down this way. Most crew are now following the old 'can't beat them join them' mentality, which to be honest, I have also started considering.
Maybe it's time for me to hang up the shorty, get some extra foam and catch some waves again. Clearly, all etiquette has gone out the window and with the dramatic increase in crowds we are now always experiencing, it may be the only option.
Where does the foam war end Walk around G?
SUPs at 10 paces at dawn?
Don't know mate? But there's heaps of crew that have been around for years, considered decent intermediate to advanced shortboard surfers that have already made the recent transition. Seams too be much frustration within the ranks when chatting with the regular crew. I think the days of a leisurely paddle and chat with a few frothers is gone and has been replaced by the game face on, battle for glory era.
Pumping waves here today with nco
Noice.
I owe you a apology, for my rant, dummy spit on a another thread. (photo thread).. Im weening of meds as well, and its playing havov. (no excuse). I surfed the previous weekend (Pre lockdown 6) and the same thing was happening. Actually word for word. So, yeah. does suck when there is an obvious advantage, and that person is taking the piss with that advantage. The guys sitting deeper we still getting the better ones, but yeah. agree with you, and i was more mindful of it.
I do get the frustration. I also opened my eyes as to how people treated me, and honestly, people were fine. No local hot shots giving me shit. They are just surfing, and like everyone said - Stay out of the way, be cool, dont paddle for bump that rolls through, and be mindful of the equipment your on and how you surf (well work around the line up) on that equipment.
VL, in the future, when you get older and a lifetime of paddling and bursitis kicks in, you will step up in litres and be amazed at how hi performance some of the boards in the 40 to 60 litre range are. Fuck I was.
It's the young guys on mals that get me, 20 year old greedy pricks thinking they are style masters wasting good quality waves on egg rail singles so they can get more sets. I'm starting to sound like you now, not that that is bad, just don't want to encroach on your space, keep it up and glad you are back. Very entertaining.
Thanks adam12.
The old boys on big thick boards are OK by me. They are generally happy to let sets go through to the pack of short boarders and pick off a set when they've waited long enough. When they do get a good one, they sit wide for 20 odd minutes and chill.
It's the young crew on big boards that really piss me off too. Their surfing will never improve past intermediate level because the equipment they choose to maximise their wave count, simply doesn't turn (or duck dive). They also have zero lineup awareness.
At least these greedy and dangerous hipster carnts are nowhere to be seen when the waves get a bit mean.
VL - 5km radius for regional ends tonight, might hit up Winki on my middie. What time suits you? Be great to catch up
A sunny Sunday and everyone in town with nothing else to do.
Who woulda thought???
So for the time being, I've been holed up about 15 k's from the nearest beach. 10 k's too far. I have options - prior to lockdown I could've taken advantage of a bolt hole that's walking distance to surf. It's a pretty close community though and I've chosen not be an asshole. Seems I'm in the minority.
Surely you could travel an extra 30km to find a beachie all to yourself. That's my plan for tomorrow. No way I'm missing a month off good waves because the old and vulnerable choose to leave there house and go surfing in the middle of flu season for the second year in a row . .
Yes. I could, but should I? There's the common-sense argument where I know I could drive somewhere, get changed, go for a surf and go home with no contact and no possible chance of contacting or spreading the virus. Then there's the argument that I should just cop the restriction on the chin like every other poor fucker who follow the rules -some of whom might be holed up in a one bedroom apartment with 2 young kids screaming and carrying on during remote learning. Some of whom who have closed businesses and others who have no income for the time being. I prefer to think it would be more beneficial to society to do the latter and set an example for my children and peers. Go for a surf. I hope you enjoy yourself (please don't hog the line up on a mid length. I pass no judgement on your decision, but I have chosen not to be an asshole.
Geez. This reads like I'm a pompous asshole. Didn't mean it that way. I'll get off my tall pony. I don't know yours or anyone else's personal circumstances. If you need a surf, go do it. Just don't be a selfish prick. That's all I was trying to say. Hope you don't get caught.
You sounded pretty reasonable to me. Good advice, "don't be a selfish prick. "
What are you all on.. yeah it’s getting busier.but It ain’t no Gold Coast,, yet.
But you still get quiet windows.. this arvo case in point..
Nah, Greyhound, it's always packed and a complete hassle. Today was a clusterfark and there was nowhere safe from the hordes. I'd suggest everyone give up surfing while they still have a chance to learn golf.
This thread gets busy in a lockdown. Thanks for the entertainment ladZ
Hey Bone, gotta be 10/10 4 ft off shore on the mp
Haha yea 55 comments, unreal. And who would have thought I'd score a mainstream reef break in the middle of town practically to myself for 2 hours.
That's cause Fishos was around 6 inches to a foot on the sets...........
Aha fishos was flat mate. There has not been a proper day at fishos for years. You should know if you were down that way with ya dog (-:
I counted about 30 out there Sat morning all the same....