Small windows before a cold, stormy swell develops next week
Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 2nd June)
Best Days: This afternoon, tomorrow, Saturday Surf Coast, Sunday Surf Coast (beaches into the afternoon), Monday
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Easing mid-period SW swell tomorrow with light N-N/NW tending variable winds
- Mix of swells for Fri but with strong SW winds, easing into the afternoon
- Easing mix of swells Sat with fresh N/NW winds
- Mid-period W/SW swell building Sun PM with fresh N/NW tending N winds
- Mix of mid-period W/SW and SW swells Mon with strong N winds, easing Tue with a S/SW tending S/SE change
- Stormy SE windswell for mid-next week
Recap
Tiny waves across the Surf Coast yesterday though with clean conditions, better to the east with infrequent 2-3ft sets and favourable winds.
This morning the situation is similar though we should see a new, inconsistent, mid-period SW swell for the afternoon as winds remain offshore from the N/NE. Size wise the Surf Coast is only due to reach 2ft+ on the swell magnets, 3-4ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula.
This week and weekend (Jun 3 - 6)
With the new, mid-period SW swell for this afternoon, it'll be well worth getting a surf in under the variable offshore winds. As touched on above, inconsistent 2ft+ sets are due on the Surf Coast magnets with 3-4ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula, with the swell easing from a similar size tomorrow morning.
Winds look light and workable across most locations with a N/NW tending variable breeze on the Surf Coast, light N-N/NW to the east, tending more variable W through the afternoon.
A strong SW change will then push through just before dawn Friday bringing poor conditions along with a mix of new swells.
The least consistent will be another mid-period SW swell from a short-lived polar low firing up south-southwest of WA yesterday, with it now weakening south-west of Tassie.
This should generate 2-3ft waves on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula, while the front linked to the change on Friday looks to generate similar sized waves, possibly more towards 3ft and 4-5ft+ late in the day but peaking overnight.
Saturday looks much better for a surf with winds quickly swinging back around to the N/NW, fresh in strength as another cold front approaches from the west.
Size wise we should see the mix of swells easing from 3ft+ and 4-6ft respectively.
Sunday will start smaller and with persistent N/NW winds, shifting more N'ly into the afternoon as a new mid-period W/SW swell starts to fill in.
The source of this swell and a follow up increase will be generated by a pre-frontal fetch of strong to gale-force W/NW winds moving under WA Friday, with a broader and better aligned fetch of W/SW winds generating a better SW swell for Monday.
Size wise, Sunday's should build to 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ to the east with those improving winds with Monday coming in around a similar size. The SW component is due to peak into the afternoon so we might see the odd bigger one, similar Tuesday morning.
Conditions will remain favourable though windy with a strong N'ly wind on Monday as a broad mid-latitude low starts to push in from the west, giving way to a S'ly change on Tuesday as the low pushes east.
We're then due to see the mid-latitude low stalling and deepening across the south-east of the country, bringing gale-force SE winds into Wednesday and a building SE windswell.
This will spoil a new SW groundswell due Tuesday/Wednesday across the state, but we'll have a closer look at this dynamic system on Friday.
Comments
Victoria, recently cut-off from the rest of the country again, now divided in two once more.... regional folk just need to carry their papers everywhere, sorry their ID, to ensure they aren't accosted by the law... or a local vigilante! And according to Sergeant Sutton, nothing but zero will set us free.
What a state we have ourselves in once again. Going to be one hell of a long winter for city folk.
The city folk haved migrated back down to the city... summer crowds in summer, lockdown crowds in winter.
Assuming the restrictions on leaving home are removed by next weekend and the 'Vic restrictions follow you to NSW rule' continues we might as well fly to Sydney for the LWE and enjoy normal life again for a few days
Only the world's greatest optimist would think we'll have restrictions eased in 7 days. They've already said that regardless of what happens for the next week, city folk aren't allowed to go anywhere for the long weekend. Quite extraordinary for them to say that ahead of knowing the lay of the land 8-9 days from now. But as I said, only zeroes will set Melbourne free now.
It’s all to familiar in a eerie, shitty way.
Sure is, fucks sake what a basket case this state and leaders are
What do you want them to do to mate? Just open everything up and we will be like Taiwan in no time with thousands of cases. It sucks. Bloody unlucky but don’t blame our leaders for being cautious the alternative is catastrophic. Blame the fed government for fucking up the vaccine rollout and the quarantine arrangements.
I want them to:
- stop bullshitting us that this strain is any different to last years (as backed up by multiple experts in the field over the last day).
- stop beating 5 mill ppl with the same blunt stick when 95% of the cases are in the far NW of the city.
- move MP and Yarra Valley out of the metro designation like they did for the regional voucher scheme. No excuse now there is no ring of steel and police are monitoring numberplates and businesses checking licenses.
- actually have a fucking plan for casuals and small businesses before locking down.
Are you denying there is another strain of covid we are dealing with? Right...
Cases are all over Melbourne and parts of rural vic. Not isolated in the NW at all. I agree with your last point about having a plan for small business and casuals.
I'm not denying its another strain, I meant the impact of the strain. Lead article on the age today: https://www.theage.com.au/national/scientists-find-no-evidence-strain-is....
And take a look at the map yourself, 86% of the active cases N and W of the Yarra River: https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/victorian-coronavirus-covid-19-data. Then to add to the stupidity, regional areas that border the vast majority of these cases have most of their restrictions removed tomorrow, when somebody in Portsea, Healsville or Warburton is still constrained to 10km radius of their house. I'm not saying there should be no lockdown or to ease all restrictions right now. Our contract tracing is infinitely better than this time last year so I wish the government would put a little more thought into these things when people's livelihoods are on the line. The sledgehammer approach based on lines on a map/classification drawn decades ago is insane
Brett Sutton is a fear mongering fuckwit.
He tries to scare the public into submitting to the government by using unnecessary overly dramatic language.
That article contradicts almost everything he said.
Yep I'm with geek and goofyfoot here. I ain't looking for them to just let it run, things like having us work from home if you can, density limits, masks INDOORS etc for the moment are fine, but for fuck's sake quit scaring the absolute shit out of the public with your bullshit "it's a beast, wildy hyper-infectious, like nothing we've ever seen before" crap day after day.
Over the course of the last week there's been 380,000+ tests done, and only 49 people have tested positive for the virus, despite 400 odd exposure sites. Of these 49 people, so far all of them except 2-3 have been found to be close contacts. Then just yesterday one of the 'fleeting' cases (the display home inspection case) that justifies the blunt lockdown has now been found to be a false positive, but you won't hear that at the press conference.
Stop the fear-mongering. I don't think they realise the mental damage they are doing to people when they say you can catch it walking past somebody within half a second. If they want to keep some restrictions in place fine, but even things like still mandating you're wearing a mask when you go for a walk to your local park is beyond cooked. Anyone who is currently healthy and only spending their 2 hours outside a day wearing a mask is an imbecile who would get this government to wipe their own ass if Brett Sutton said it'd keep them safe.
Agree Dx3.
Yep this is all pretty valid Geek. But I'd still rather play it safe than end up in months of lockdown like last year. Just not worth the risks. Other states (WA, Qld, SA) have been far more cautious than us.... locking down the whole city with only one case. This virus is not to be trifled with and after last years debacle Victoria has the most to lose.
NSW restrictions mean you have to isolate for 7 days if you been in Vicco after 27/5. Maybe some wriggle room around exercise but why risk it. Supposed to be on the South Coast this week, rebooked for two weeks time.
https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/rules/interstate-hotspots#stay-at-home-r...
Will be interesting to see how/if they update them for regional vic with their restrictions changing on Friday
Fingers crossed, got nearly three weeks. We can travel anywhere in the state except Melbs so hopefully will be ok.
SE gales and swell in winter.. not fair..
Surfed by myself this morning. Sunny, clean, light offshore, really small but when the shoulder high ones came thru they were all mine.
More swell would be good but I could get used to this.
Is that an oiled up gloat?
Ha!
Just checked the dip stick. Oil reading is zero.
Welcome back SN Vic Forecast Notes Lockdown crew of 2020.
Yes it sucks to be here again but I'm holding out for a more 'reasonable' timeframe for this one. Also, currently, it feels a lot less 'police state' like. No curfews, less cops strolling around iron fist like.
I've already been kiting, and had a bay paddle. Not too bad really. Kind of found having a bay paddle is about the same level of fun to surfing crowded, cold inconsistent 2-3fters which is what I assume is going on down the coast. Also got the surfskate thing happening.
Fair points on the police state Stok this time vs last year. I still can't believe that as part of Dan's press conferences last year he would give daily updates on how many people were fined for disobeying orders. That is a genuine police state.
As for reasonable time frame, a week was reasonable, is 2? How about 3? Guess we'll just wait and see, but it is looking like a run of zero days is what Melbourne need to get out of this. And personally it doesn't impact me as much now, I got outta the city earlier this year. But I do have plenty of family back there that we now can't see, hopefully not for much longer.
Yeah, 7 was semi reasonable, 2 weeks overkill but could cope. If we're still locked down after the long weekend there better be a very, very good reason (i.e. more than a handful of positive tests a day). Totally agree with your post above though! Still that same fear mongering wording being used, I guess I've just switched off to it a bit more. I live it St Kilda within a stones throw of heaps of exposure sites and have felt less concerned about getting covid this time round than last year for sure.
But, more importantly! Where did you end up moving to? We're getting closer to making a move, possibly down the peninsula at this stage (South of Mornington). Was also considering the island too but it may be a bit big of a change for us. Work's completely changed for me and I'm now only going into the office 1-2 days a week, which is here to stay, so coastal/regional is the go
Yeh fair call mate, the 2 day a week requirement for office time was the clincher for me too to get out with the family, along with not wanting to pay $1.5m+ for a tiny house in the burbs. We ended up going surf coast way. Have some friends and family already there so made the shift easier. I know nobody on the island so that was out for us, and personally I'm not a big peninsula fan (not just surf, in general) so that was never really in the frame. Best decision of our lives, we're all absolutely loving it.
Nice. I remember talking to Stok and you last year so glad to hear a positive move came of it. It's been a fantastic last 15ish years for us here, great place to raise the kids, great waves.
Must admit going through this again (even in the regions) has got me thinking of leaving Vic. For me it's not being locked up, but an increasing unease with being so close to Melbourne.
Yeh same VJ. Seeing swell after swell hit the warm waters of Northern NSW for 12 months now whilst we have been locked down has really got me thinking.
For me it would be WA, nearly all family is over there and one of the kids wishes to finish study there. So the boards would lose a little foam and gain a little rocker haha. I'd probably go back and forth as the other young one is setting up career here. TBH I'd lose the easy access to so many shapely, rideable waves with favourable winds, so would always come back for stints.
I'd miss the snow gums and currawongs & wombats above the snow line heaps tho. But hey, quokkas...
Edit: it's funny what it has done to us Geek. A mate bailed as it all locked down and for him the Sunny coast has pumped and pumped, as if to condone the move.
VJ - when you say an unease of being close to Melbourne, do you mean covid-related Melbourne and the fact it just can't seem to deal with covid, or just more broadly Melbourne in general?
More with the covid-related stuff, as of my own circumstances.
I could make jokes about the city mouse/country mouse thing, but tbh the Melbourne people I've met (and who have been my clients) are really, really nice and I like them a lot. More likely to find my sense of humour there too! A general, sweeping generalisation, WA seems to have a harder edge to it's persona that's somewhere between hard work, stoicism, shutting up and doing it yourself (sprinkled with a bit of Alan Bond entrepreneurialism), while Vic/Melb seems initially more doey - softer, more tolerant, more collective; then you realise it's strength is that caring is baked into the cake. Which is cool if you get sick.
Fair call. I'm very much looking forward to raising my kids in a non-city environment which was as much a driver as getting out than anything else. Once the kids came along and the things Melbourne can be good for were really of little interest to me anymore, nightlife, bars, cafes etc, the move out was a no-brainer, Covid just enabled it with work. And the thought of driving through Melbourne Saturday traffic for kids sport once that get into that... Life's too short for that!
Trust me, you'll still get hammered with drives for Saturday sport... and if they are good and make state level... prepare for supercommuting!
One coasty thing I loved was playing rockpools at the beach with the kids when they were little, swimming and discovering at one of the spots you may know. Even if it was onshore or not ideal surf weather. Then, as they got into boards, they already had the whole reef dialled and even surfing on a reef wasn't a worry, which was good for avoiding crowds. Many parents want their kid to be Kelly Slater but I discerned youngest & keenest was into the 'nature' aspect of it more - just the raw waves, nature, seeing the fish/seals/dolphins etc. So that became our focus, and where we could get a quiet wave rather than performance or comps. You're in a good place and whatever I decide on, I think I'll keep the connection here.
Awesome stuff Dx3, assuming your water time has bumped up a bit? If I recall you're in a similar spot to me kid wise (1 & 3 for me), interested to hear if you're surfing as much as possible?
We're still about 6 months off being able to make a move, so probably have to put up with 2-3 more lockdowns!
Yes mate same boat for me with 2 young ones, surfing has increased beyond what I ever thought possible, still surf the early on wkends, but you’re back home for breakfast by 9am instead of midday if travelling from the city, or ducking out for a mid-week lunch surf, early knock off surf, it goes on. Wife is understanding, she knows when there’s waves I gotta go make the most of it, plenty of onshore and flat spells so no shortage of family time to get amongst. Life is just better mate, if ya can make it work you won’t regret a coastal move.
Do you need to travel to the CBD? Phillip Island is a long long way to travel in heavy traffic on the Monash 1-2 a week. MP is a little better in terms of distance but Eastlink/Monash traffic would have to be the worst its ever been post-2020 lockdown. At least MP has the option of the train from Frankston (and bus to train station if you want to get boozy after work). I thought I wouldn't catch the train again after last year but the few times I've been into the office in the CBD this year I've checked Google Maps in the morning, gone nope and driven to Frankston station
Yeah smack bang in the middle of the CBD.
How do you find the commute Geek, reckon it's doable a couple of times a week? I'd try to take the laptop on the train and work I guess.
Yeh it’s fine, only a real drag when the trains get delayed or line shuts down. Would often get a bit of work done in the morning on laptop then watch Netflix on way home. I did stints of commuting 5 days to CBD for months at a time (that did suck from Dromana, manageable from morno/mt martha) but also used to work at some companies in mount waverly area where I would drive.
There’s more than enough time for pre and post work surfs in summer too even with the train trips (no kids though).
Imagine the government having this much power!!
Victorian Health? Pathetic Response. NSW has handled Outbreaks without Shutdowns. Vic Govt has lost all Confidence in their Health System. Unvaccinated Infected Workers in more than one Aged Care Setting? Ya Kidding Me? The Incompetence is Overwhelming.
The people bagging the Vic govt and the health professionals in this state are just fucking pathetic.
For the last week, they've been doing 50,000 odd tests a day and 20K vaccinations. It's a massive effort which has run reasonably smoothly. Think about it, that's like organising a grand final a day, day after day after day.
blaming the Vic government for the lockdown is just fucking stupid. The outbreak came from Hotel Quarantine in SA. The person who brought it to Vic had tested negative, and he was asymptomatic for a week, spreading the virus throughout the community. Poor bugger did everything right. WTF was the vic government supposed to do. The guy tested negative FFS.
Meanwhile smirko mc cunt face in Canberra dropped the ball on vaccines, and still relies on hotel quarantine that has failed 21 fucking times in the last 6 months.
I got my vaccine ASAP and the hall was packed with the procrastinators. We all got in and out super quick due to highly trained professionals doing a difficult job under difficult circumstances.
Meanwhile aged care staff and residents in the private sector have woefully low vaccinations rates because the Fed Govt Cunts and their donor mates botched the rollout. State government aged homes have a 100% vaccination rate.
So if you want to point the finger, point it at the incompetent federal government turds who have done fuck all about quarantine and have royally screwed the vaccine rollout, leaving the country below places like Zimbabwe on the rankings. Don't point the finger at the poor fuckers who need to pick up the pieces of truly useless cunts like Hunt, Colbeck and the muppet PM who spent the last year doing photo ops instead of DOING HIS FUCKING JOB.
ahh. That felt good.
Can you repeat that please vl, didn’t quite catch your drift
Hi VL, was wondering where you got to haha
ild get a test for $450.
You make very good points about the federal government VL - I agree with all of them wholeheartedly. Well and truly they cooked the vaccine rollout and inaction on quarantine sites. The state of vax rates in aged care can not be over-stated just how pathetic and inexcusable that has been. Heads should roll for that.
My gripe with the current lot in state government is the fear porn they have dialed up to 100. They just need to calm the fuck down and stop trying to scare the shit out of everyone. I don't mind the short sharp lockdown, they had to do something. But stop calling it a beast and every other adjective under the sun.
Good work VL
I'm glad you're feeling better VL.
Funny last week Scomo was a racist for not allowing people with the Chinese virus to return from India to Australia.
Much Rather have Scomo steering the ship than shifty Bill Shorten the accused rapist.Now the Vic state Labour government that doesn’t take orders from Canberra lays the blame at his feet. The vaccine will not stop you getting the virus just minimise the impact..Dedicated Quarantine facilities which is a good idea will take at least 18 months to build and furnish before people can move in. Instead of fighting amongst ourselves about politicians and who burns the most money maybe we’re playing into the virus creator’s hands.Divide and conquer seems to be working perfectly.
You'll be safest wearing a tin foil hat in a basement somewhere Vunerable. BTW, I mate told me you raped someone Vunerable. There's no proof and even if you get investigated by the cops and they don't see any evidence, I will still call you Vunerable the accused rapist. Yes, Go fuck yourself.
800 dead and we are paying millions for the lawyers legal fees for the I can’t remember Labour state government.
Shifty bill giving lectures about what’s appropriate that’s funny when his accuser is still adamant she didn’t give consent.The best thing is Scomo is gonna be in for another term...
Start rolling Some tinfoil around your own dick and when it points North if you bend over far enough it’ll go up your own arse.
Let's look at that 800 dead. Most of them were in aged care which was criminally neglected by the centre owners and the federal government regulators. Eventually the state government had to step in a clean up the absolute shambles and save lives. Right in the middle of an outbreak the Vic taxpayer paid for 4000 medical shifts in aged care. Those medical professionals are absolute heroes, busting there backside doing back to back shifts in really difficult circumstances.
You'd think the feds would have seen the damage covid does to the elderly and ensure the private aged care sector was front of the queue for the vaccine. Did that happen? Fuck no, not even close. Scumo got his vaccine while the elderly residents got screwed. It was even worse for the staff. The current vaccination rates in aged care is a massive scandal that should have resulted in multiple heads rolling. But these absolute cunts aren't held accountable for anything. Meanwhile the state base aged care system is 100% vaccinated. If the Australian public re-elect these incompetent corrupt cunts, we deserve everything we get. And I will let you know a little secret, Alleged Rapist Vunerable, re-elected cunts don't suddenly become competent and clean after an election. They just get more pathetic and bent.
Aah I’ve missed you Vic saying as it is
That’s the reason Mikakos and Andrews left hand man stepped down because they were doing such a great job here.
It's called accountability. In the Vic govt, You fuck up, you resign or get sacked.
Meanwhile in the Federal govt, no cunt gets held accountable ever. $80 mil for no water to Angus Taylor's Cayman Island mate? No fucking problem. Barnaby Joyce get's $675K to be a drought envoy. Spends 3 weeks in the country getting shit faced and sends his report in via text message. Does he get sacked? Fuck no. And when people try to get the text message released as part of a freedom of information request, it gets denied. These cunts are just taking the piss. I literally could go on all night listing endless shitfuckery done by these corrupt cunts. It's been going on for fucking 8 years and includes rape coverups, sexual harassment, stalking, and billions of our dollars pissed away to LNP mates, and nobody NOBODY has ever been sacked. What a fucking rabble.
“ In the Vic govt, You fuck up, you resign or get sacked.”
Why is Andrew’s still premier then?
Bay paddle has had the best conditions past 2 days.
Today was as good as it gets with warm sunshine and sheet glass conditions through the arvo. Sitting a few hundred metres offshore with the odd bird and fish life, staring into space, you could imagine so many of the different places you've been in/on the water.
Weirdly funny to hear some of you blokes reminisce about this time last year.
I recall it well.
On this day I was stuck in Sao Paulo Airport (5 days in total) after 3 months in Brazil and on my way to European summer...and hardly a care in the world! Ha!
I’m with you “views from the.....” Whilst it wasn’t surfing, bay fitness paddle at dusk this evening was the next best thing! So glassy, quiet with a magnificent sunset.
Sounds like you and views from the cockpit had a really romantic outing. Love finds a way, even in the pandemic.
Hah!
I was out today at St Kilda, the glassiest of glass.
Who need waves am I right?
Yeeeew another corona virus relief package. $500per week to fund my solo partying. Will be hitting it super hard next week
Wow, it could have been a threesome