Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued December 23rd)

Best Days: Keen surfers Friday, beaches Saturday morning, keen surfers Tuesday and Wednesday mornings

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Building mid-period W/SW swell tomorrow, tending SW in direction Fri, easing Sat, best on the beaches Sat AM
• Small mid-period SW swell early next week with S'ly winds, possibly variable Tue/Wed AM
• E/SE windswell on the cards for next weekend

Recap

There was a small window of light winds on the Mornington Peninsula and Phillip Island at dawn yesterday, providing fun waves on the beaches, but a trough moved in bringing rain, onshore winds and spoiling the surf for the rest of the day.

A new W/SW swell built into the afternoon and this morning it's still offering good 3ft sets on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft to the east but conditions are fairly poor, best in protected spots west of Melbourne for the keen.

This week and weekend (Dec 24 - 27)

The outlook for the end of the week isn't great, but winds won't be too strong through the mornings so there'll be opportunities for the desperate to get a bumpy surf in.

A low point is expected tomorrow between today's easing W/SW swell and a new mid-period W/SW swell that's due to build into the afternoon, holding Friday while tending more SW in direction.

The source of the swell is a weak though broad frontal progression that's currently south-west of us. We've seen a pre-frontal fetch of strong W/NW winds generated in our western swell window, with a broader fetch of strong W/SW winds now being generated in our south-western swell window.

This fetch will weaken further but remain in our swell window today, pushing slowly east tomorrow.

This will prolong the swell event, but with the weakening wind strengths, the strength of the swell will also drop after a peak in energy tomorrow evening.

Size wise the Surf Coast looks to be around 2ft or so tomorrow morning, building to 2-3ft through the afternoon and holding most of Friday though with lessening power. The Mornington Peninsula should build to 4ft+ on the sets tomorrow and be a similar size Friday.

Winds are average but workable, with an early light to moderate W/SW breeze tomorrow, shifting fresher S/SW mid-morning and then moderate S/SE on Friday.

The size and power will ease through the weekend as winds improve for the beaches, light E/NE on Saturday morning, tending variable ahead of afternoon sea breezes. Size wise the Surf Coast will drop from a small, weak 2ft, with 3ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

Sunday morning looks cleaner on the beaches now with a N'ly breeze but the swell will be all but gone, tiny on the Surf Coast and possibly 2ft for the desperate on the Mornington Peninsula beaches. An afternoon SW change is due as a front moves in from the south-west and behind this we'll see poor, fresh but abating S/SW winds Monday. Swell wise a small lift in windswell and mid-period S/SW energy is due but to no major size.

A better mid-period SW swell is due Tuesday, followed by W/SW energy Wednesday, generated by the cold front bringing Sunday's change.

A broad though weak fetch of strong SW winds will be projected from the polar shelf towards us on the weekend, with a secondary front Sunday afternoon and evening due to produce additional W/SW winds. We then may see further weak activity following this, but all in all this progression won't generate any major size.

Surf to 2ft to possibly 3ft is likely on the Surf Coast magnets, 4ft on the sets to the east with workable, light onshore S'ly winds Tuesday morning, possibly more variable Wednesday.

Longer term the outlook remains void of any major swells as another strong, blocking high moves in late week following the frontal activity earlier in the week, but we'll have another look at this Friday. Have a Merry and safe Christmas!