Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 7th December)

Best Days: Protected spots early tomorrow and Wednesday morning, exposed beaches Saturday, Sunday and Monday mornings

Recap

A great day for the beaches on Saturday with clean conditions and a mid-period swell easing from 3-4ft across exposed breaks, 2ft to the west. Sunday was clean but tiny on the Surf Coast, poor to the east while some new swell kicked into the afternoon from a mid-latitude low edging in from the west.

Today most locations started a bit slow with the high tide and mid-period W/SW swell, but the swell magnets kicked nicely mid-late morning with clean 4ft+ waves as the swell strengthened a little and the tide dropped, much smaller in protected spots.

This week and weekend (Dec 8 - 13)

The slow moving mid-latitude low linked to today's W/SW swell has weakened on its western flank is it moves across us today, but on its southern flank we're still seeing a good fetch of strong to gale-force S/SW winds aimed through our southern swell window.

Swell from this source is due later tomorrow, peaking overnight, easing Wednesday. So what we can expect tomorrow is easing mid-period W/SW energy from 3-4ft across the Surf Coast swell magnets, smaller elsewhere. The Mornington Peninsula should ease back from 6ft on the sets.

The new S/SW swell looks to come in at 3-4ft on the Surf Coast late, easing back Wednesday from 3ft+, with 4-5ft sets to the east. There looks to also be some weak SW swell in the mix from a weak front moving through our swell window tomorrow, softening the easing trend.

Winds tomorrow will be best for protected spots and W/NW early, shifting SW mid-late morning, while a moderate W/NW-NW breeze is expected to hold until midday Wednesday ahead of a strong S/SW change as a trough/cold front slides in.

In the wake of the trough/front on Thursday, winds will be poor and strong from the SW tending S. The swell will be at a low point in the morning as well, but a new mid-period and moderate sized S/SW swell should build into the afternoon, peaking Friday.

The swell will be produced by a broad and elongated fetch of strong S/SW winds being projected towards us, with Friday seeing surf to 3ft+ on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft+ to the east.

A slow moving high behind the trough will continue to create poor conditions with strengthening S/SE winds on the cards Friday, likely tending more E/NE on Saturday as the mid-period swell eases. This should create fun waves on the beaches (easing 4ft sets), clean again Sunday morning but small.

Longer term there's nothing too major at all on the cards as the positive Southern Annular Mode event keeps the westerly storm track subdued and close to Antarctica. There is one fun pulse of SW groundswell likely Monday with favourable winds, but we'll have a closer look at this Wednesday.