Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 18th November)

Best Days: Selected spots tomorrow, Friday morning protected spots, Saturday for the keen, Sunday morning exposed beaches

Recap

A small mix of westerly swells to the 2ft range on the Surf Coast yesterday morning, fading through the day with poor surf on the Mornington Peninsula, workable on Phillip Island.

Today we've got improving conditions on the beaches with a drop in swell back to mostly 3ft across the Mornington Peninsula, 1-2ft on the Surf Coast magnets. We should see the swell hold into this afternoon with the arrival of a small, reinforcing mid-period W/SW swell as sea breezes pop up early-mid afternoon.

Clean lines this AM

This week and weekend (Nov 19 - 22)

Through Sunday and Monday a surface trough drifting south-east from the Indian Ocean formed a low pressure centre, with a significant drop in pressure and intensification seen through our western swell window, south-west of Western Australia.

The low dropped more than 24hPa in a 24 hour period classifying it as a 'bombing low' resulting in a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W'ly winds developing in our western swell window.

Satellite passes of the low have picked up an impressive swathe of purple, storm-force (50kt+) winds, with the low weakening slowly yesterday but still maintaining a fetch of gale to severe-gales in our swell window.

The storm is pushing slowly east today while weakening further but still maintaining a fetch of strong W'ly winds in our south-western swell window.

The slow movement of the low and longevity will translate to a prolonged groundswell event, initially west in nature and swinging more south of west through Friday and easing Saturday and Sunday.

The most size is due later tomorrow afternoon as the long-period W/SW groundswell energy fills in, but Friday should maintain plenty of size before a more noticeable easing trend is seen through Saturday.

With the westerly component expect inconsistent surf in more protected locations, but as a guide tomorrow morning looks to be a small 2ft or so on the Surf Coast, 3-5ft to the east, quickly ramping up through the afternoon with the arrival of the swell and reaching 3-5ft on the Surf Coast (3ft in protected spots, 4-5ft swell magnets) with 8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

A slight drop in size is due Friday but the Surf Coast should hold around 4ft most of the day, 6ft+ to the east before easing Saturday from the 3ft and 4-5ft+ range respectively.

Looking at the local winds and a general freshening N/NE breeze is due across the state, becoming stronger into the evening, with a late SW change due to impact to about Lorne into the evening. There'll be periods of N-N/NW winds on the Surf Coast through the day but the reefs are likely to be generally wind affected.

Our onshore change for Friday has been delayed just a touch with a W/NW breeze due through the morning, shifting S/SW mid-late morning, providing a window in protected spots.

With the delay in change on Friday, Saturday looks dicey with lingering onshore S/SE-SE winds, but only light, creating workable waves for the keen as the swell eases.

Sunday looks cleaner and better on the beaches with a light E/NE-NE morning breeze but the surf will be on the way out, 1-2ft on the Surf Coast 3ft and easing on the Mornington Peninsula.

Next week onwards (Nov 23 onwards)

A small reinforcing W/SW swell is due on Monday but winds look funky with a surface trough moving in from the west not being overly well resolved between the forecast models EC and GFS.

We may see early N'ly winds, shifting W/NW through the day, but coming back to the swell and it's currently being generated by a relatively weak cold front north-east of the Heard Island region and will weaken south-west of WA tomorrow, leaving an inconsistent, small, mid-period W/SW swell to travel towards us.

The Surf Coast only looks to reach an inconsistent 2ft on the sets, 3-4ft+ to the east, but we'll have a closer look at this and a possible stronger frontal progression developing through next week on Friday.