Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 2nd October)

Best Days: Saturday, Sunday, Monday morning Surf Coast, beaches Wednesday and Thursday AM

Recap

A tiny and windswelly start to yesterday with no surfing options, but a new acute W’ly swell kicked into the afternoon though not quite to the expected 3ft+ on the Surf Coast. It came in at a slower 2-3ft on the swell magnets, tiny at other locations.

Today the swell is similar in size but much cleaner across the beaches to the east with sets to 4-5ft, 2-3ft on the Surf Coast magnets. A reinforcing W/SW groundswell is due this afternoon and this should produce more size to 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula as winds hold from the N/NW on the Surf Coast and to the N to the east.

This weekend and next week (Oct 3 - 9)

The pulse of new W/SW groundswell due later today was generated by a broader and more sustained fetch of W/NW gales moving through our western swell window yesterday. This should provide a bit better size across all locations, with tomorrow easing back from 3ft+ on the Surf Coast magnets and 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula. The swell will still be fairly west so other protected spots will be much smaller.

Winds will be gusty and strong from the N all morning, possibly tending N/NE at times on the Mornington Peninsula, with a drop in winds later afternoon while swinging N/NW.

Our funky and tricky winds for Sunday are still that but it looks like a trough moving in from the west will stall a touch, bringing N’ly winds east of Melbourne and N-NW winds on the Surf Coast, giving into a late afternoon SW change.

A reinforcing and inconsistent but slightly better aligned W/SW groundswell is still on track, generated through this week by a slow moving low, sitting further south than the mid-latitude fronts. This should keep the Surf Coast around the 3ft range, if not for the odd bigger one and 4-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula, peaking through the day. Expect longer waits for sets with this swell though.

The surf will then ease into Monday and winds look to revert back to the W/NW after later Sunday’s change, swinging back to the S/SW late morning as a trough moves in proper.

Tuesday and Wednesday look poor as a high moves in behind the trough, bringing S/SE winds on the former, possibly swinging E/NE into Wednesday morning, but the models diverge on this.

Swell wise, a healthy polar front should bring a moderate sized pulse of S/SW groundswell for Tuesday that’ll ease Wednesday as winds hopefully improve. Looking at the size and the Surf Coast looks to come in around 4ft with 6ft sets to the east, easing Wednesday. Following this there’s nothing too major on the cards, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!