Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 11th September)

Best Days: Saturday, Monday protected spots, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday

Recap

Good waves on the beaches yesterday, not the best at dawn but quickly improving with easing 3-4ft sets, smaller on the Surf Coast, though hit and miss.

Today the swell has bottomed out, tiny and clean on the Surf Coast, better to the east with inconsistent 2-3ft sets. A new inconsistent W/SW groundswell is due this afternoon and should keep 3ft sets hitting the Mornington Peninsula and Phillip Island.

This weekend and next week (Sep 12 - 18)

This afternoon’s increase in W/SW groundswell will drop through tomorrow but a tricky pulse of fleeting SW groundswell could be seen through the day from a strengthening though south-east tracking low that’s formed south-west of us. 

The core wind strengths are impressive but the south-east track not so. Keep an eye out for a kick to 2ft to possibly 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4ft to possibly 5ft to the east.

Winds will favour the beaches, moderate to fresh from the N and holding most of the day.

Sunday is looking a touch better now as the trough moving through tomorrow evening is much weaker. Winds are only due to be light to possibly moderate from the S/SW-SW and we may even see a W’ly kick back in later afternoon.

A new inconsistent W/SW groundswell is due to fill in as well, though it’s been generated in our distant westerly swell window so keep your expectations low. Very inconsistent 2-3ft sets are due on the Surf Coast swell magnets, 3-5ft to the east, but we’ve got better swells to follow.

Our conveyer belt of frontal activity moving in from the Heard Island region is on track, and there’s no real standout system, just a healthy and prolonged fetch of gale to severe-gale westerly winds moving through our swell window.

The progression is currently in our distant swell window but will move in closer to us through the weekend, with a good fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds developing south-west of WA this afternoon and evening. This will then move under the country tomorrow afternoon and evening, with the fetch shifting more W/SW in direction, followed by a trailing fetch of broadening W/SW severe-gales south-west of us Sunday and Monday.

Due to the prolonged and drawn out nature of the activity we'll see an extended run of moderate to large surf.

We should start to see the size building through Monday with a peak due on Tuesday with the Surf Coast building from 3ft or so Monday morning, reaching 4-5ft into the afternoon and 4-6ft, upwards to 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Tuesday looks a touch bigger with surf to 4-6ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft to the east, then easing slowly Wednesday.

Conditions will be best for protected spots Monday with a morning W/NW breeze, shifting fresher SW into the afternoon and then W/NW Tuesday morning before shifting S/SW into the afternoon.

As the swell eased Wednesday we’ll see N’ly winds opening up plenty of options, possibly even persisting all day.

Thursday looks to remain great for more exposed spots with N/NE winds and easing surf, but we’ll have a closer look at this on Monday. Have a great weekend!